Betting Markets Way Off With Conclave Predictions

The conclave predictions of betting markets and experts turned out to be wide of the mark after outsider Cardinal Robert Prevost was chosen to be the next pope.

Blockchain prediction market sites Polymarket and Kalshi took a combined $40.4 million on the conclave outcome, and very few users correctly predicted the selection of the 69-year-old Chicago-born Prevost, who was rated as a 1% outsider when betting opened. 

A Prescient Prediction

In fact, only 150 bettors opted for Prevost on Kalshi’s prediction platform, although one prescient customer earned an impressive $52,641 in profit from their $525 prediction.

Meanwhile, Polymarket took six bets that earned over $20,000 in winnings, which means that all six customers wagered at least $200. The biggest win at Polymarket was reportedly a $63,650 return from a $1,059 bet, although the biggest exclusive Prevost pick was a user who earned a total of over $16,000, after doubling down on an initial wager on the outsider.

While a handful of bettors got their predictions right, there were plenty more on both sites who ended up wagering on losing propositions. 

According to Polymarket, nine users lost over $10,000 through wagers on the odds-on favorite, Cardinal Pietro Parolin. Parolin’s odds rose dramatically on Thursday morning on both the Kalshi and Polymarket sites, while the previous second favorite, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle’s odds dropped dramatically. Yet by the time white smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel, both had lost out.  

New Pope Brings Global Speculation

Betting on the outcome of the papal conclave is not illegal in Italy, but betting companies voluntarily abstained from taking wagers on the outcome after contact from the regulator, the Customs and Monopolies Agency.

Instead, Italians were able to play a game called Fantopapa, based on the fantasy sports model, in which entrants could pick a team of cardinals.

The best sportsbooks in the US were banned from offering markets on the outcome of the conclave, but prediction market companies Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated as providers of financial products - rather than betting companies - so were not bound by the same restrictions.

Outside the US, global speculation led to busy betting markets in many countries, but with little form or news to go on, betting was more speculative than with other similar events such as national elections.

 Prevost, who has taken the name Leo XIV, had only been a cardinal for two years prior to his elevation. He is the first American-born pope in the Church’s history.