College Football Championship Odds 2026: Only These 9 Teams Can Win the College Football Playoff

As the season approaches, we're looking at which college football national championship odds favorites have a true chance to win the College Football Playoff as we enter the second season of the 12-team format.

While having a Heisman Trophy odds contender doesn't hurt, it's not imperative to winning it all. However, the 11 national champions during the College Football Playoff era all check two key boxes: they have preseason odds of +4000 or shorter and a Blue-Chip Ratio of 52% or higher.

Using the preseason odds from our best college football betting sites and calculating this year's Blue-Chip Ratios, I've identified the nine College Football Playoff odds contenders that can bring home a national title this season.

🏆 Latest college football championship odds 2026

Our 2026 college football national championship odds update in real time based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

📊 Why only 9 teams can win the College Football Playoff

⏱️ Preseason odds cutoff

• Since the beginning of the College Football Playoff era (2014-15), all 11 national champions have had preseason odds of +4000 or shorter
• Only two of the 11 had preseason odds longer than +800: 2019-20 LSU (+2500) before Joe Burrow's breakout Heisman season and 2014-15 Ohio State (+4000) in the first season of the four-team College Football Playoff's existence
• Six of the 11 CFP era national champions had preseason odds of +600 or shorter, including four of the last five national champions
• Three of the last six national champions have had preseason odds of +350 or shorter: 2017-18 Alabama (+300), 2022-23 Georgia (+350), and 2024-25 Ohio State (+325)

💎 The blue-chip ratio threshold

• Recruiting is the lifeblood of college football programs, which is why Bud Elliott invented the Blue-Chip Ratio to track which teams have enough talent to win the national championship
• The Blue-Chip Ratio looks at a program's previous four recruiting classes and divides the number of blue chip recruits (four- and five-star recruits) by the total number of recruits
• Since he began tracking Blue-Chip Ratio in 2011, every single national champion has had a Blue-Chip Ratio of 52% or higher, meaning their last four recruiting classes have had more blue chip recruits than two- and three-star recruits
• Last season, Ohio State won the national championship with the highest Blue-Chip Ratio in the country (90%)
• In the College Football Playoff era, nine of 11 national champions have had a Blue-Chip Ratio of at least 64%, while six of them had a Blue-Chip Ratio of 77% or better
• Three of the last five national champions have had a Blue-Chip Ratio of 80% or higher: 2024-25 Ohio State (90%), 2022-23 Georgia (80%), and 2020-21 Alabama (83%)
• Only 2016-17 Clemson (52%) and 2023-24 Michigan (54%) have won the national championship with a Blue-Chip Ratio below 64% in the CFP era
• Using 247 Sports recruiting rankings for the last four recruiting cycles, I've calculated this year's Blue-Chip Ratios

🏟️ Big Ten, SEC, or Clemson

• The 11 national champions during the College Football Playoff era have hailed from one of three conferences: the Big Ten, the SEC, and the ACC
• Clemson is the only non-Big Ten/SEC program to win a national championship during the CFP era
• The Big Ten and SEC have accounted for nine of the 11 CFP era national championships, including six straight, with the Big Ten winning the last two
• The SEC's dominance extends past the CFP era, with it claiming 13 of the last 19 national championships

✅ The 9 true contenders for the 2025-26 national championship

🌰 Ohio State

• Preseason odds: +500 via bet365 ($10 bet pays $50 profit)
• Conference: Big Ten
• Blue-chip ratio: 88%

The reigning national champions have plenty to replace, including both coordinators, but they also return arguably the two best players in college football in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs. Between Ryan Day's recruiting and use of the transfer portal, the Buckeyes look fierce again as former five-star Julian Sayin takes over at QB. Ohio State opens the season against Texas, so it won't be long before we know how real its chances are of repeating.  

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🤘 Texas

• Preseason odds: +550 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $55 profit)
• Conference: SEC
• Blue-chip ratio: 78%

No team has more buzz right now than Texas because of the last name of their new starting QB. While Arch Manning was the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class, he saw extended playing time last season against only three teams, all ranked 98th or worse on defense by SP+. Still, he leads the 2026 NFL Draft odds for a reason and is surrounded by a deep roster led by budding stars like Anthony Hill Jr., Colin Simmons, Ryan Wingo, and Quintrevion Wisner. Week 1 in Columbus will be fun.

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🐶 Georgia

• Preseason odds: +800 via BetRivers ($10 bet pays $80 profit)
• Conference: SEC
• Blue-chip ratio: 82%

It was a "down year" for Kirby Smart's program last season when it won just 11 games and beat Texas in the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs winning the conference and pushing for a title this year will come down to Gunner Stockton, who officially takes over as QB1 after Carson Beck left for Miami. Luckily, Smart never stops crootin' and even added some help via the transfer portal. Players like Nate Frazier, CJ Allen, Christen Miller, and Daylen Everette give Georgia a strong foundation.

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🦁 Penn State

• Preseason odds: +800 via FanDuel ($10 bet pays $80 profit)
• Conference: Big Ten
• Blue-chip ratio: 67%

Will this finally be the year James Franklin puts a smile on everyone in Happy Valley's face? Penn State certainly has the talent to compete for the Big Ten title and potentially win it all. The Nittany Lions return QB Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, offensive linemen Drew Shelton and Olaivavega Ioane, defensive linemen Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant, and cornerback A.J. Harris. This roster is one of the best on paper and has addressed its wide receiver issue via the portal.

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🦆 Oregon

• Preseason odds: +1200 via BetRivers ($10 bet pays $120 profit)
• Conference: Big Ten
• Blue-chip ratio: 76%

The Blue-Chip Ratio doesn't take into account transfers, but Dan Lanning has bolstered Oregon's blue-chip-filled roster by adding some of the top talents in the portal. This season, the team added running back Makhi Hughes, safety Dillon Theieneman, and offensive lineman Isaiah World, just to name a few of the star-studded additions. They join a roster relying on QB Dante Moore, linebacker Bryce Boettcher, pass rusher Matayo Uiagalelei, and tight end Kenyon Sadiq to carry the load. The emergence of five-star freshman Dakorien Moore could make or break the Ducks with Evan Stewart's injury.

🐘 Alabama

• Preseason odds: +1300 via FanDuel ($10 bet pays $130 profit)
• Conference: Big Ten
• Blue-chip ratio: 89%

Talent-wise, thanks to a roster built by Nick Saban, this is still clearly a national title contender. But Year 1 of Kalen DeBoer left a lot to be desired. So it's hard to have too much faith in the Crimson Tide's ability to win a title this season, though Ryan Grubb reuniting with DeBoer should help. Ty Simpson takes over as the QB. This receiver room, led by Ryan Williams, and the O-line, led by Kadyn Proctor, could be two of the best units in the SEC. Plus, LT Overton highlights what should be a strong defense.

🐅 Clemson

• Preseason odds: +1400 via FanDuel ($10 bet pays $140 profit)
• Conference: ACC
• Blue-chip ratio: 57%

The only non-Big Ten/SEC team that's eligible for this list, this looks like Dabo Swinney's best Clemson team in years. The Tigers lead the country in returning production and have a Heisman-caliber QB in Cade Klubnik, who had the most big-time throws last season among returning P4 passers. And, like all of Swinney's best teams at Clemson, the Tigers are loaded at wide receiver (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., T.J. Moore) and on the defensive line (T.J. Parker, Peter Woods). Between its reasonable odds and talent on both sides, Clemson is my favorite bet to win it all.

🐯 LSU

• Preseason odds: +1800 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $180 profit)
• Conference: SEC
• Blue-chip ratio: 69%

Much like Clemson and Penn State, LSU brings many of its key cogs back, including Garrett Nussmeier, Aaron Anderson, Caden Durham, White Weeks, and Harold Perkins Jr. Brian Kelly also went big game hunting in the transfer portal and put together the No. 1 class in the country. Additions like Nic Anderson and Barion Brown on offense and Patrick Payton and Mansoor Delane on defense could push this team to a College Football Playoff berth. Betting on the Tigers comes down to how much you trust Kelly.

〽️ Michigan

• Preseason odds: +4000 via BetRivers ($10 bet pays $400 profit)
• Conference: Big Ten
• Blue-chip ratio: 57%

The championship hangover has passed as the second season under Sherrone Moore in Ann Arbor is set to get underway. Thanks to the deep pockets of Larry Ellison, Michigan brings in the No. 1 recruit in the country in QB Bryce Underwood, who will likely start sooner than later as a freshman. The Wolverines also added running back Justice Haynes, defensive lineman Tre Williams, and safety TJ Metcalf via the portal. Michigan should be better this season, but not a title contender.

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