British Open First-Round Leader Predictions, Odds & Weather: Who'll Lead After Round 1 at Portrush?

The Open Championship begins with the first tee times at 1:35 a.m. ET tomorrow at Royal Portrush, and we're breaking down the British Open first-round odds and predictions while looking to get the best of the weather forecast in Northern Ireland.

Scottie Scheffler, the outright betting favorite by the British Open odds, is also the favorite in the first-round leader odds market. He'll tee off Thursday at 5:09 a.m. ET, while Rory McIlroy begins his quest for his second major of the year at 10:10 a.m. He tops my British Open picks.

⏰ See the full British Open tee times here.

📊 British Open first-round leader odds

The 2025 British Championship first-round leader odds are from our best golf betting sites and update in real time. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in this market with +1600 odds representing an implied win probability of 5.88% and returning a profit of $160 on a winning $10 bet.

Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay during Round 1.

💰 British Open 18-hole leader predictions

As part of our golf picks for 2025's final major, here are my favorite British Open first-round leader predictions for Thursday at Royal Portrush. Use our player prop odds tool to get the latest and best odds for the golfer(s) of your choice.

I'll be targeting longer odds and the morning wave with most of my British Open first-round leader predictions. I'm also targeting golfers who performed well in last week's Scottish Open, particularly on Sunday.

🏌️ Marco Penge

📊 Best odds: +7500 via DraftKings ($10 pays $750)

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Penge finished T-2 in Scotland last week with 2.34 strokes gained: around-the-green in the final round. That was a strength of his all week, as was his driver and putter.

The Englishman is also among my British Open long-shot picks as he's had excellent form over the last month-plus on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

He'll be sent out in Thursday's third group at 6:57 a.m. local and should get the best of the weather and course conditions before wind and rain pick up.

🏌️ Harry Hall

📊 Best odds: +8000 via BetMGM ($10 pays $800)

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Hall settled for a T-17 finish last week. He struggled with his irons on Sunday but they were strong through three rounds, and he gained 1.33 strokes on the greens on Sunday.

Another Englishman, Hall is third on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average this season (68.25). He'll tee off at 1:48 p.m. local on Thursday, but he has plenty of length to combat what's expected to be softer course conditions.

🔮 British Open expert picks

• British Open AI predictions
• British Open first-round leader predictions
• British Open odds
• British Open picks to win
• British Open long-shot picks
• British Open power rankings
• British Open projected cut line

🏌️ Nicolai Hojgaard

📊 Best odds: +8000 via BetMGM ($10 pays $800)

Hojgaard will be sent out in Thursday's first group along with former Open champion Padraig Harrington and Northern Ireland native Tom McKibbin. My hope is that those two can help the Danish star navigate the course early in the morning (6:35 a.m. local).

Hojgaard ranks 47th on the PGA Tour this season in Round 1 scoring average. He's coming off a T-4 finish in Scotland with 4.01 SG: putting on Sunday, and 1.13 SG: off-the-tee per round for the week.

⏰ ChatGPT's first-round leader prediction for The Open Championship

I asked ChatGPT, a popular large language model chatbot from OpenAI, for its best British Open first-round leader prediction. This pick is for entertainment purposes only, but AI can help to provide insights information to help you make informed decisions.

🎯 Top pick: Scottie Scheffler

• Best odds: +1600 via DraftKings (15% implied probability)
• Why Scheffler?
• World No. 1 is in stellar form entering the championship
• Known for strong starts, his game remains sharp even when he's not contending late
• Despite firm coastal conditions and weather swings, his ball-striking and consistency suit a fast-paced links first round

Bet $5, Get $150 + $1K Deposit Bonus

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🌤️ Thursday's weather at Royal Portrush

The weather for the 2025 British Open at Royal Portrush is expected to be a major factor on the tournament, particularly on Thursday, July 17, when the tournament begins.

🌧️ Thursday forecast

• Conditions: Cloudy with little rain in the afternoon
• Temperature: 68 degrees (feels like 64)
• Wind: 12 mph (gusts up to 24 mph)
• Precipitation: 0.30 inches

Thursday at Royal Portrush is expected to be cool and windy - as it often is Northern Ireland. Rain isn't expected until a couple hours of precipitation in the afternoon, so I'll be targeting golfers from the morning wave for my first-round leader predictions.

👀 First-round leader betting insights

Here is how first-round leader betting action is coming in at BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon:

💰 Who was the first-round leader at The Open last year?

Daniel Brown held the first-round lead at last year's British Open (Royal Troon). He fired an opening round of 6-under 65 to lead by one over Shane Lowry. He went on to finish T-10 while shooting 72-73-74 over his final three rounds.

His first-round leader odds this year are +12500 at BetMGM, and he's received 0.7% of the betting tickets and 0.3% of the handle.

🏌️‍♂️ What is a first-round leader (FRL) bet?

A first-round leader bet is a wager on which golfer will have the lowest score after Round 1 of a golf tournament. You're betting on who will lead the field after 18 holes, not who will win the tournament.

🔢 How the odds work

Odds are typically presented in American format (+500, +1200, etc.) and reflect the potential payout.

Example:

• Scottie Scheffler +1600 to be the first-round leader ➤ Bet $10 to win $160 profit ($170 total payout)
• Collin Morikawa +4500 ➤ Bet $10 to win $450 profit

📝 Example bet

Let’s say you bet $10 on Adam Scott at +6600 to be the FRL:

• If he finishes the day outright in first place, you win $660 profit
• If two or more players tie, most sportsbooks split the bet using dead-heat rules

⚠️ Dead heat rules: If Scott ties with 2 others for the lead, you’d win 1/3 of the payout

💭 What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market. It helps to consider the following factors in particular:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performances entering Thursday's first round.

⛳ Golf betting odds pages

🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 British Open

Want to bet on the British Open? Here are the best golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:

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