British Open Long-Shot Picks & Sleepers: Best Dark Horse Predictions for 2025 Open Championship

Our British Open long-shot picks hope to take advantage of what's expected to be poor weather at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland as golf's oldest major begins tomorrow (1:35 a.m. ET), as we hunt for sleepers who could claim the Claret Jug.

Will we see someone follow in J.J. Spaun's footsteps as the +17500 winner of the U.S. Open? We're targeting three golfers with British Open odds longer than +5000 to complement our Open Championship picks.

🎯 British Open long-shot picks

Here are my favorite sleeper picks to win the 2025 British Open at Royal Portrush this week, along with their best odds from our best golf betting sites.

🎯 Russell Henley (+6500 via DraftKings)
🎯 Justin Rose (+7500 via DraftKings)
🎯 Marco Penge (+16000 via DraftKings)

👉 Don't miss the rest of our golf picks for more predictions on the 2025 British Open.

💤 Sleeper picks to win the 2025 Open Championship

Here are the three sleeper picks I'm backing to win the 2025 British Open.

🎯 Russell Henley

📊 Best British Open odds to win: +6500 via DraftKings ($10 pays $650)
🔢 Implied win probability: 1.52%
💰 Alternate bet: Top-10 finish (+600 via bet365)

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Henley enters this week a career-best fifth in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and has four top-10 finishes in eight events since, including a T-10 in the U.S. Open.

The 36-year-old American had a career-best fifth-place finish in last year's Open Championship. His elite play and short game make him an excellent fit for links golf and the poor weather conditions we expect this week in Northern Ireland. I love the 6-1 odds for a top-10 finish as a safer alternative to the +6500 outright long-shot bet.

DraftKings users can claim up to a 50% odds boost on any one British Open outright pick. This boost would raise Henley's odds to win from +6500 to +9750 for an extra $325 in profit on a winning $10 bet.

🎯 Justin Rose

📊 Best British Open odds to win: +7500 via DraftKings ($10 pays $750)
🔢 Implied win probability: 1.32%
💰 Alternate bet: Top English player (+900 via DraftKings)

At 44 years old, Rose has as many runner-up finishes as missed cuts in his last four majors at two apiece. That includes a T-2 in last year's Open Championship.

The elder statesman among our three British Open long-shot picks finished sixth in the Scottish Open last week with 1.50 strokes gained: approach and 2.33 SG: tee-to-green per round. He was also strong on the greens, and putting has been his consistent strength this season.

The Englishman tied for 20th at Royal Portush the last time The Open was in Northern Ireland

🎯 Marco Penge

📊 Best British Open odds to win: +16000 via DraftKings ($10 pays $1,600)
🔢 Implied win probability: 0.62%
💰 Alternate bet: Top 20 finish (+450 via DraftKings)

A T-2 finish in last week's Scottish Open shone a spotlight on Penge, but he should've been much more in the public view before that.

The Englishman enters this week at No. 92 in the OWGR amid a stretch of five straight made cuts, mostly on the DP World Tour, but including a T-28 in the PGA Championship. He won the Hainan Classic in China earlier this year and will make his first appearance in The Open since 2023.

I prefer the top-20 bet over the outright pick, but we could have a cash-out opportunity if he's in contention heading into the weekend, thanks to the inflated odds.

🔮 British Open expert picks

• British Open first-round leader predictions
• British Open odds
• British Open picks to win
• British Open long-shot picks
• British Open power rankings
• British Open projected cut line

🐎 Best British Open AI long-shot prediction

I asked ChatGPT, a popular large language model chatbot from OpenAI for its best British Open long-shot pick. This pick is for entertainment purposes only, but AI can help to provide information and insights to help you make informed decisions with your bets.

🎯 Top long-shot pick: Hideki Matsuyama

• Best odds: +8500 via bet365
• Why Matsuyama?
• Elite ball-striking: Ranked 18th in SG: Approach and 20th in SG: Tee‑to‑Green this season.
• In-form: Has finished in the 60s during seven of his last nine rounds, including a T-13 at the Rocket Classic
• Major credentials: Masters champion (2021), experienced under pressure
• Links suitability: Accurate iron play often wins out on firm, tricky coastal courses

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🧩 Alternate long-shot contenders

• Justin Rose: +7500 (75/1) via DraftKings
• A former Open runner-up with a sharp short game; T-2 last year and strong Scottish Open form.
• Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Adam Scott, and Ben Griffin – also at +7500 via DraftKings
• These names fall into the same long-shot bracket if you're open to deeper picks
• Russell Henley at +6500: hidden value with stellar stats and Open experience

✅ My pick

• Hideki Matsuyama at +8500: This pick blends long-shot upside with legitimate major-winning credentials and in-form play, making it the best deep-value bet to win the Claret Jug

📊 Open Championship outright odds 2025

Here are the live Open Championship odds from our best golf betting sites, which will update in real time up to and throughout the 2025 tournament at Royal Portrush.

👀 Most popular British Open bets

Here's how the betting action is coming in on the British Open's outright winner at BetMGM:

BetMGM also reports it received a $5,00 bet on Bryson DeChambeau to win The Open Championship at +2200. A winning bet would return a $110,000 profit.

And here are the most popular bets at BetMGM (by tickets) in various prop markets:

⛳ British Open info

• When: Thursday, July 17 - Sunday, July 20
• Where: Royal Portrush, Northern Ireland (last hosted in 2019)
• How to watch: NBC, Peacock
• Defending champion: Xander Schauffele (Royal Troon), Shane Lowry (Royal Portrush)
• Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+550 via BetMGM)

📜 British Open betting history

Here are the recent winners of the British Open and their early futures odds to win:

⛳ Golf betting odds pages

🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 British Open

Want to bet on the British Open? Here are the best golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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