MLB Comeback Player of the Year Odds and Predictions 2025: Who's Taking Down deGrom in the AL?
Don't call it a comeback.
Or do that actually, because it's in the title of the award here. Jacob deGrom, who's the favorite in the AL, has been lights out since returning from Tommy John surgery, while Ronald Acuna Jr. is leading the way in the NL.
Let's take a closer look at the AL Comeback Player of the Year odds and NL Comeback Player of the Year odds from one of our best sportsbooks that we use often while making MLB picks.
🔢 AL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob DeGrom | -290 | 74.36% |
| Javier Baez | +550 | 15.38% |
| Byron Buxton | +550 | 15.38% |
| Spencer Torkelson | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Drew Rasmussen | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Felix Bautista | +3400 | 2.86% |
| Casey Mize | +3400 | 2.86% |
| Tyler Mahle | +5500 | 1.79% |
| Mike Trout | +12000 | 0.83% |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | +12000 | 0.83% |
🔢 NL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | -230 | 69.70% |
| Jesus Luzardo | +600 | 14.29% |
| Kodai Senga | +600 | 14.29% |
| Jung Hoo Lee | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Corbin Carroll | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Spencer Strider | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Tony Gonsolin | +3000 | 3.23% |
| Carson Kelly | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Dustin May | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Christian Yelich | +5000 | 1.96% |
🏆 MLB Comeback Player of the Year odds: Favorites
Jacob deGrom (-290)
deGrom has earned the best chance at winning this award, and it shouldn't be too close at the end of the season if he keeps this pace up.
Beyond his 2.13 ERA AND 0.89 WHIP (excuse me?), a start on April 11 was the last time deGrom allowed more than two runs, and he's fired four shutouts since that day. Coming back from Tommy John, there's simply no stopping this man on the MLB Comeback Player of the Year oddsboard.
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Ronald Acuna Jr. (-230)
After suffering a season-ending ACL tear in early 2024, Ronald Acuna Jr. is all the way back and hitting leadoff for the Atlanta Braves. He's already clubbed nine homers this year across 37 outings, and Acuna is slashing .344/.459/.588 for a team on the upswing. He's an easy play at -230 betting odds to win the NL Comeback Player of the Year odds.
👀 MLB Comeback Player of the Year odds: Sleeper pick
Byron Buxton (+550)
Welcome back, Buxton. He's a strong contender for AL Comeback Player of the Year due to his elite athleticism and game-changing ability when healthy.
After battling injuries in recent seasons, he’s returned to the field while showing flashes of his All-Star form. Buxton’s defense in center field remains high-end, and his power-speed combo gives him one of the highest ceilings in baseball.
With 19 homers already this year while logging 15 stolen bases, Buxton holds an outside chance at winning this award.
🤖 MLB Comeback Player of the Year odds: AI prediction
AL: Spencer Torkelson (+1200)
Here's ChatGPT's reasoning for tabbing Torkelson to secure the award:
"After a rocky start to his MLB career, Torkelson showed significant signs of a breakout before his injury, especially with his power numbers. He slugged 31 home runs in 2023 and was on track for another strong showing before missing time. Still just 25 years old, he’s entering his prime and should return to a run-producing role in the Tigers' lineup, giving him plenty of opportunities to compile stats.
Voters love a young player who rebounds from adversity, and Torkelson’s combination of pedigree (former No. 1 overall pick) and power potential gives him a compelling narrative. If he reaches or surpasses 30-plus homers and 90-plus RBIs, Torkelson could be a serious contender. That's especially true if deGrom doesn’t return to the mound in full form."
NL: Kodai Senga (+600)
Here's what ChatGPT has to say about Counsell, who's leading the surging Cubs.
"While he’s not coming off a down season in terms of performance, Senga missed the start of 2024 with a shoulder strain, and his return to dominance could make him a clear contender. He was a standout rookie in 2023, posting a 2.98 ERA with 202 strikeouts across 166 1/3 innings and finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. That’s elite production.
If Senga returns this summer and delivers a strong second half — especially if the Mets stay competitive — voters may view his rebound from injury as justification for the award. His mix of a devastating “ghost fork” pitch, plus top-tier strikeout upside, makes him both statistically dangerous and narrative-friendly, key ingredients for Comeback Player recognition."
📖 Comeback Player of the Year odds voting
The MLB Comeback Player of the Year award is given annually to one player in each league (American and National) who has shown a notable return to form after facing adversity.
That could include coming back from a major injury, rebounding from a poor season, or returning to the game after personal issues or time away. Unlike other major MLB awards, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) doesn't vote on this honor. Instead, a panel of MLB.com staff and beat reporters determines the winners.
Voters select one player per league, and the player with the most votes receives the award. While statistical performance is important, the narrative behind a player's journey often plays a significant role in the decision, making this award a celebration of resilience, perseverance, and determination.
📜 MLB Comeback Player of the Year odds: History
🏆 Past AL Comeback Player of the Year winners
| Year | Player | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Garrett Crochet | Chi White Sox | P |
| 2023 | Liam Hendriks | Chi White Sox | P |
| 2022 | Justin Verlander | Houston | P |
| 2021 | Trey Mancini | Baltimore | 1B/OF |
| 2020 | Salvador Perez | Kansas City | C |
| 2019 | Carlos Carrasco | Cleveland | P |
| 2018 | David Price | Boston | SP |
| 2017 | Mike Moustakas | Kansas City | 3B |
| 2016 | Rick Porcello | Boston | SP |
| 2015 | Prince Fielder | Texas | 1B |
| 2014 | Chris Young | Seattle | P |
| 2013 | Mariano Rivera | NY Yankees | P |
🏆 Past NL Comeback Player of the Year winners
| Year | Name | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Chris Sale, ATL | P |
| 2023 | Cody Bellinger, CHC | OF/1B |
| 2022 | Albert Pujols, STL | DH |
| 2021 | Buster Posey, SF | C |
| 2020 | Daniel Bard, COL | P |
| 2019 | Josh Donaldson, ATL | 3B |
| 2018 | Jonny Venters, ATL | RP |
| 2017 | Greg Holland, COL | P |
| 2016 | Anthony Rendon, WAS | 3B |
| 2015 | Matt Harvey, NYM | P |
| 2014 | Casey McGehee, MIA | 3B |
| 2013 | Francisco Liriano, PIT | P |
❓MLB Comeback Player of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite to be the MLB Comeback Player of the Year in 2025?
Jacob deGrom is the current favorite in the AL to win the 2025 MLB Comeback Player of the Year, thanks to his elite pitching when healthy. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the favorite in the NL.
Who won MLB Comeback Player of the Year in 2024?
In 2024, Garrett Crochet won the AL Comeback Player of the Year and Chris Sale won in the NL.
How are MLB Comeback Player of the Year odds determined?
Comeback Player of the Year odds are set by sportsbooks based on past injuries, performance drops, and potential for bounce-back seasons.
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