Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for July 4

We're leaning on Fernando Tatis Jr. to provide from Fourth of July fireworks, along with Rafael Devers, among others.

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: July 4, 2025 11:16 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Home Run Predictions Today — Pictured San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is a key figure in our home run predictions today. Photo by Eakin Howard / Imagn.

It's time for some Fourth of July dinger fireworks, and Fernando Tatis Jr. continuing to put a slump behind him factors heavily into our best home run predictions today and home run bets today.

He's the central figure in a tasty parlay that would pay out nearly $5,000 if it hits.

💰 MLB best home run predictions & odds today: July 4

Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today, with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

🧨 Fernando Tatis Jr. player prop pick: To hit a home run (+525 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Addison Barger player prop pick: To hit a home run (+370 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Riley Greene player prop pick: To hit a home run (+350 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Rafael Devers player prop pick: To hit a home run (+290 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🚀 Best home run parlay picks

Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Friday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

💣 Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+525 via bet365)
💣 Addison Barger to hit a home run (+350 via bet365)
💣 Riley Greene to hit a home run (+350 via bet365)
💣 Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+290 via bet365)

Parlay odds: +49259 via bet365 ($10 to win $4,935.93)

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💣 Best home run prediction today: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here are my best home run bets today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.

⚾ Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +525 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $52.50)

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Tatis has been in an uncharacteristic and prolonged slump after a sizzling start to the season.

But he's been clobbering the ball too often to stay down much longer. We see that in his underlying metrics that are shining as always, most notably an average exit velocity that sits in the top 9% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant. His expected slugging of .517 is also much higher than Tatis' actual slugging that rests at .441, which is another key indicator of a gift coming from the positive regression gods.

And Texas Rangers starter Kumar Rocker has been doling out plenty of gift-wrapped baseballs to smack this season. He's been better following a mid-June callup, though two of his four starts since then came against the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates. His hard-hit rate allowed of 46.9 is in the bottom 10% of MLB, contributing to a putrid 6.13 ERA.

But the real generous gift here is coming from bet365, which is listing a colossal +525 outlier price for Tatis to go deep. The rest of our best MLB betting sites are far shorter for one of our best home run bets today, including the chasm between bet365 and the +390 at FanDuel, +340 through Caesars, and most of all, the +280 at DraftKings.

The odds at bet365 are implying a 16% chance, while DraftKings is at 26.32%.

📊 Padres vs. Rangers odds

💡 More MLB predictions today

❓Best Home Run predictions FAQs

What is a home run bet?

A home run bet is a wager on a hitter to hit a HR at any point during a game. Some sportsbooks allow you to bet on a hitter to not hit a home run, but the most common bet is on them to do so.

Can you parlay home run bets?

Yes, you can parlay home run bets. We've provided our best home run parlay today.

How do I place a home run bet?

To place a home run bet, simply go to your favorite sportsbook and go to the game featuring the player of your choice. Then click on batter props and you should see an option to bet a player to hit a home run.

What are the best home run props for tonight?

We're rolling with Fernando Tatis Jr., Rafael Devers, Addison Barger, and Riley Greene for our best home run predictions today on the Fourth of July.

💵 Best MLB betting sites

Want to bet on baseball? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's games:

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Written by:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.