Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for May 7

Our home run picks span across Wednesday's entire slate, starting with Seiya Suzuki at Wrigley and ending with Kerry Carpenter at Coors Field.

Andrew Brennan

Last updated: May 7, 2025 12:32 PM EDT • 5 min read

Home Run Predictions Today: Best MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for May 7 — Pictured: Chicago Cubs designated hitter Seiya Suzuki takes batting practice before game against the Milwaukee Brewers. Photo by Benny Sieu via Imagn Images.

Seiya Suzuki (+625) kicks off our best home run predictions today this afternoon, but there's plenty more to look forward to into the night, as we've made four picks from a jam-packed MLB slate.

💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: May 7

Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

🧨 Seiya Suzuki player prop pick: To hit a home run (+625 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Pete Alonso player prop pick: To hit a home run (+360 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Kyle Schwarber player prop pick: To hit a home run (+290 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Kerry Carpenter player prop pick: To hit a home run (+360 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.

⚾ Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) to hit a home run vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +625 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $62.50)

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Suzuki and the Cubs square off against Robbie Ray this afternoon. For his part, the left-hander has done relatively well to limit the long ball this year. But unless he's about to smash his career average in that regard, regression is coming for Ray.

There's no better team in the NL to dish out said regression than the Cubs, who are tied for the highest wRC+ with the Dodgers and sit third in the majors with 55 home runs. Suzuki is tied for the team lead with nine of those, and he's hitting the ball harder this year than ever before.

The outfielder is quite obviously selling out for power, as he's striking out more and walking less than in previous seasons. But that approach has resulted in those aforementioned nine homers already. Suzuki hit 21 homers over 132 games last year and 20 across 138 in 2023. If he continues to drill long balls at this pace, Suzuki would finish with around 35 over 130 games this year.

I expect Suzuki to reach double-digit homers today, and these odds are ridiculously long for him to do so.

⚾ Pete Alonso (Mets) to hit a home run vs. Diamondbacks ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +360 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $36)

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Alonso is making sure this offseason doesn't go the way the last one did. The first baseman was given only a two-year deal to return to the Mets. But with a player option in 2026, he could become a free agent after this season. Based on the way he's playing right now as one of the MLB MVP odds favorites, I imagine he'll opt out and get a hefty long-term deal.

The Mets take on Merrill Kelly today, who's basically the definition of fine. His 4.06 ERA is fine, his 1.19 homers per nine innings are fine, and most of his peripherals are fine.

Fine won't cut it against Alonso and Co., though. The slugger owns the second-best wRC+ in baseball at an absurd 210, behind only Aaron Judge's Barry Bonds-like mark. His batted-ball data resembles that of a man reborn, as he's annihilating even the numbers Alonso managed back when he drilled 53 homers.

Alonso regularly features one of the best home run projections on any given day, and that's no different today. Much like Suzuki, the Polar Bear is also getting into double-digit homers today.

⚾ Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) to hit a home run vs. Rays ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +290 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $29)

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Admittedly, this is my least-favorite bet of the bunch, mostly because Shane Baz is very good. However, what hasn't been so good is the Rays' bullpen. While Baz suppresses home runs at a very impressive rate, Tampa Bay's relievers are giving up the fourth-most home runs per nine innings.

Therefore, if Schwarber and the Phillies can drive Baz's pitch count up while taking walks - they own the fourth-best walk rate in baseball - and get to the bullpen early, the slugger could get multiple opportunities against weaker pitchers.

Schwarber is also receiving a very solid 0.38 home run projection today. So although my baseball brain says, "Baz good, home run bet bad," my math brain tells me we're getting very good value on this pick.

We've witnessed a Schwarbomb in three of the Phillies' last four games. It'll be four of five after tonight.

⚾ Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) to hit a home run vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +360 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $36)

Let's try this again. After betting on Carpenter to hit a home run in yesterday's game, it was rained out.

As was the case yesterday, Carpenter owns the best home run projection of any player today, which isn't especially surprising given his penchant for hitting the ball high and hard, and the fact this game is being played at Coors Field.

The only thing I worry about is a little added moisture after yesterday's weather, but the air should still be plenty thin in Denver.

💰Best MLB home run parlay picks

Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Wednesday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

🧨 Seiya Suzuki (+600)
🧨 Pete Alonso (+295)
🧨 Kyle Schwarber (+275)
🧨 Kerry Carpenter (+330)

Parlay odds: +44485 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $4,448.50)

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.