Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Friday, May 9

We're scouring the best home run odds for today's MLB action while locking in on Jackson Merrill, Cal Raleigh, Corbin Carroll, and Matt Chapman.

Sean Tomlinson

Last updated: May 9, 2025 12:20 PM EDT • 3 min read

Home Run Predictions Today: Best MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for May 9 — Pictured: San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill celebrates. Photo by Orlando Ramirez via Imagn Images.

A healthy Jackson Merrill has returned to our lives as part of our best home run predictions today, along with his penchant for firing off laser beams regularly.

💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: May 9

Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

🧨 Jackson Merrill player prop pick: To hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Corbin Carroll player prop pick: To hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Cal Raleigh player prop pick: To hit a home run (+310 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
🧨 Matt Chapman player prop pick: To hit a home run (+340 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.

⚾ Jackson Merrill (Padres) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +420 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $42)

Bet $5, Win $200 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. deposit $5+. Bet $5+ and win $200 in Bonus Bets, if your bet wins (within 72 hours). Bet does not have to win in AZ, CO, KS, NC, or TN.

Claim $200

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Manny Machado is mighty tempting here too while the San Diego Padres prepare for liftoff amid the thin air at Coors Field, and against a putrid Rockies pitching staff that ranks 28th with its 5.47 ERA. The Detroit Tigers also just annihilated the Rockies during a doubleheader yesterday, winning by a combined score of 21-3.

But Merrill seems primed to erupt immediately just two games into his return from a hamstring injury. And perhaps in part because of that absence, his price of +420 from one of our best MLB betting sites is much more appealing than the +350 for Machado, and especially the +240 tied to Fernando Tatis Jr.

Merrill has wasted no time sliding back into his groove after returning from the injured list. He's registered two multi-hit games, including a double and his fourth homer of the season across just 12 outings. He pummeled three balls two nights ago that left the bat at over 100 mph. His hard-hit percentage keeps rising, and it now sits at 54.1% after Merrill posted a 43.9% last year as a rookie.

Now the young lefty slugger squares off against the woeful Antonio Senzatela, who sports a painful 5.50 ERA coming into tonight. Even better for our homer hunting, his HR/9 is a bloated 2.1, far above the league average of 1.1. There's blue nearly across the board on his Baseball Savant page too, most notably a .602 expected slugging allowed that ranks in the bottom 2% of MLB.

📊 Padres vs. Rockies home run odds

💰Best MLB home run parlay picks

Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Friday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

⚾ Best MLB betting sites

Looking to bet on baseball? Here are the best sports betting sites and best sportsbook promos as determined by our Sportsbook Review experts.

Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Written By:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.