Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Pete Crow-Armstrong to Provide Fireworks

Will it be a Fourth of July celebration with plenty of fireworks in an NL Central clash?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 4, 2025 6:49 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Friday, July 4 — Pictured: Chicago Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw celebrates with center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski via Imagn Images.

Two bitter National League Central rivals meet for the first time at Wrigley Field this season as the Chicago Cubs (52-35) host the St. Louis Cardinals (47-41). The Cubs are -150 betting favorites at our best sports betting sites to win their fourth consecutive game, and our Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction digs into who might propel them to that win. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET (Apple TV+).

Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: Cubs to win (-148 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under prediction: Over 10 (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best player prop pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 RBIs (+126 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The Cardinals are 1-3 in Miles Mikolas’ last four starts, which include losses to two division rivals. His numbers at Wrigley Field on paper look respectable (3-3, 3.77 ERA in 12 appearances), but he has surrendered 11 runs in his last 19 2/3 innings spanning four starts over the last two seasons, with most of his success there coming early in his career.

Mikolas has allowed a .318/.341/.465 slash line in 157 combined at-bats to current Cubs hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of two hitters who have homered off Mikolas in their careers, and he has done so twice in just four at-bats.

I would not put anyone off backing Crow-Armstrong’s +375 odds (a $10 wager would return $37.50 in profits) to homer again at bet365, considering Mikolas has allowed at least one home run in five consecutive starts and six of seven.

But Mikolas’ recent struggles at Wrigley Field suggest there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths when Crow-Armstrong bats, so I am backing him to drive in a run for the third time in the last six games.

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How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”