Home Run Derby AI Predictions: ChatGPT's Full Picks for Today's MLB Home Run Derby
Our Home Run Derby AI predictions seek to identify the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby champion from the eight-man field ahead of tonight's highly anticipated event at Truist Park in Atlanta. The Home Run Derby begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Byron Buxton, Junior Caminero, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Oneil Cruz, Matt Olson, Cal Raleigh, Brent Rooker, and James Wood are the competitors who will go head-to-head for the coveted hardware. Last year's champion, Teoscar Hernandez, will not participate after declining an invitation.
We asked ChatGPT, a large language model chatbot from OpenAI, for its Home Run Derby predictions based on betting odds, historical data, and statistical trends - including its pick to win and longest home run distance. Along with our look at the odds and Home Run Derby expert picks, here are our AI-powered best bets and prop picks.
Bet on tonight's Home Run Derby winner at FanDuel and receive $1 in bonus bets for each home run that player hits! Be sure to opt in; available to eligible U.S. residents only.
💰 AI best bets for Home Run Derby
Please note that ChatGPT is not an experienced bettor, and this information is for entertainment purposes only. However, these AI predictions can provide information and insights to help you make informed decisions.
| Market | Bet | Odds | Implied win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Pick to win | Matt Olson | +900 via FanDuel | 10% |
| 💰 Best player prop bet for longest home run | Oneil Cruz | +185 via FanDuel | 35.09% |
| 🎯 Best prop bet for longest home run distance | Over 479.5 feet | -120 via Caesars | 54.55% |
🏆 Best bet to win the Home Run Derby
⚾️ Matt Olson
📊 Best odds: +900 via FanDuel ($10 to win $90)
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While a handful of these sluggers (Cruz, Raleigh, and Wood) could absolutely steal a round, if you’re putting your money on the most reliable derby swing and track record of sustained power, Matt Olson is the favorite to lift the trophy.
✅ Why Olson wins the Home Run Derby
1. Proven history: 35-plus home runs in four of the past six seasons heading into 2025
2. Batting practice precision: Scouts and broadcasters rave about his derby‑style batting practice - minimal wasted swings, great rhythm
3. Mental game: Olson has spoken in past All‑Star weeks about his approach to timed rounds; he treats them like a controlled BP session, not a max‑effort everything
4. Track record in Derby‑like settings: When MLB hosts the Home Run Derby or BP demos at All‑Star Fanfest, he’s routinely near the top of the leaderboard. Even with bracket volatility, Olson’s combination of efficiency plus overwhelming raw power gives him the edge over streakier or less‑experienced opponents
🎯 Best player prop bet for longest home run
💥 Oneil Cruz
📊 Best odds: +185 via FanDuel ($10 to win $18.50)
Cruz has unreal exit velocities, regularly topping 115-plus miles per hour in games. At 6-foot-7, his long levers generate elite bat speed and loft. He could easily hit one 490-plus feet in a derby setting with max effort and no pressure to swing at strikes.
Cruz has Aaron Judge-like tools and thrives in high-exit-velo environments. If he gets a pitch middle-in and elevates it, he could flirt with 500 feet, something rarely seen since the Statcast era began.
🚀 Best prop bet for longest home run
📏 Over 479.5 feet
📊 Best odds: -120 via Caesars ($10 to win $8.33)
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Given the 2025 Home Run Derby field - Cal Raleigh, Oneil Cruz, Matt Olson, Junior Caminero, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brent Rooker, James Wood, and Byron Buxton - we can expect some serious fireworks. The predicted longest home run distance is 498 feet, hit by Cruz or Wood.
In recent derbies, the longest home runs have pushed the 480–495 feet mark, with Juan Soto (520 feet) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (495 feet) among the longest in Statcast derby history.
Unless weather or ballpark conditions hold it back, 498 feet is a strong projection for the longest homer in this derby. Cruz and Wood are the best bets to do it - both could be the first to legitimately threaten 500 feet in a derby since Statcast tracking began.
🤑 Home Run Derby betting insights
Who is the biggest liability tonight? Who is the public loving? Here's a look at the betting insights for tonight's Home Run Derby, courtesy of BetMGM.
| Player | Line Movement (Open → Current) | Highest Ticket % | Highest Handle % | Biggest Liability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | +360 → +275 | 17.0% | 30.3% | ✅ |
| James Wood | +550 → +400 | 18.0% | 19.2% | ✅ |
| Brent Rooker | +1200 → +850 | — | — | |
| Byron Buxton | +850 → +900 | — | — | |
| Oneil Cruz | — | 14.2% | 14.5% | ✅ |
🔮 Expert Home Run Derby picks
- Home Run Derby Predictions & Best Bets
- Home Run Derby Odds & Expert Picks
- Home Run Derby AI Picks
💵 Best MLB betting sites
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