MLB Home Run Derby Expert Picks & Odds Today: Raleigh, Cruz Betting Favorites

Our best MLB Home Run Derby odds and predictions break down tonight's big event, with the eight-man field ready to crush homers and compete for hardware before the Midsummer Classic.

Teoscar Hernandez declined the chance to defend his crown, which means Pete Alonso (2019, 2021) remains the last repeat champion. MLB has instead filled the event with an exciting mix of young stars that possess unprecedented power. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh - an MLB MVP odds contender - is listed as the +300 favorite at our best sports betting sites.

Oneil Cruz (+330) and James Wood (+400) represent Raleigh's biggest competition, according to FanDuel. Byron Buxton (+850), Matt Olson (+900), Junior Caminero (+950), Brent Rooker (+1000), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1400) round out the field for this year's event at Truist Park.

In addition to our 2025 Home Run Derby picks and Home Run Derby AI predictions, we'll dive more into the field, rules, and MLB odds to help make your MLB picks for the event in Atlanta.

Bet on tonight's Home Run Derby winner at FanDuel and receive $1 in bonus bets for each home run that player hits! Be sure to opt in; available to eligible U.S. residents only.

💣 Home Run Derby field 2025

It took some time to finalize the field this year with plenty of big names turning down the opportunity to compete, but we're still left with a star-studded cast that is sure to leave our jaws on the floor.

Here's a look at all eight participants for the 2025 Home Run Derby.

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💥 Home Run Derby odds 2025

(Home Run Derby odds as of July 14)

The best strategy for this event, as is often the case, might just be to shop around for the best sportsbook promos and odds across the entire market.

📈 Home Run Derby 2025 predictions, expert analysis

Our baseball team at Sportsbook Review dropped their best play on the Home Run Derby odds board; picks and odds submitted on July 11, odds may have changed.

James Wood (+600 via DraftKings)

Dustin Saracini's pick: You can't go wrong with Wood in this event as part of our best Home Run Derby predictions. The rookie will have something to prove under the brightest lights of them all, has one of the best no-doubter percentages in baseball (54.2%), and trails just Oneil Cruz, Aaron Judge, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in max exit velocity. He has all the tools to hit the baseball to the moon on a consistent basis come Monday, and isn't that what it's all about?

Let's see some absolute bombs from the big man - the +600 value at DraftKings is just icing on the cake.

✅ Best odds: +600 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 14.29%

Brent Rooker (+1100 via FanDuel)

Sean Tomlinson's pick: The whole point of the home run derby is completely selling out for power while aiming for foreign planets far away. That was nearly what Rooker used to do on a daily basis in actual games. He's become a more well-rounded hitter over the past season and a half, but that pure-power baseball-punisher is still in his soul, which is what you want out of a long shot in this event.

Be sure to pounce on the market-leading odds for Rooker from FanDuel, or at least avoid the +750 from Caesars.

✅ Best odds: +1100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 8.33%

Byron Buxton (+1000 via FanDuel)

Gabe Henderson's pick: Justin Morneau and Miguel Sano have historically represented the Minnesota Twins very well at the Home Run Derby. Buxton looks to become the latest Twins star to shine in the event as the Baxley, Ga., native takes the field in front of his family and friends.

Buxton's mashed 20 homers this year, and the pop he possesses should translate well to a favorably dimensioned left field at Truist Park. He's trading at 10/1 with FanDuel, the only one of our best sportsbooks offering the Minnesota slugger at this price.

✅ Best odds: +1000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 9.09%

Oneil Cruz (+400 via Caesars)

Andrew Brennan's pick: Cruz has two real weaknesses: he hates playing defense and I think sometimes swings with his eyes closed when someone throws him a breaking ball.

Fortunately, neither should be an issue in this event.

Cruz hits the ball harder than literally anyone in baseball. He swings the bat faster than anyone in baseball. And he barrels up the ball more than anyone not named Aaron Judge (someone should have asked that guy to be in this event, really).

They're going to have to change Truist Park's name to Los Alamos when Cruz is done launching nukes there.

✅ Best odds: +400 via Caesars | Implied probability: 20%

💰 Expert picks to win 2025 Home Run Derby

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

• Saracini: James Wood (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Tomlinson: Brent Rooker (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Henderson: Byron Buxton (+1000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Brennan: Oneil Cruz (+400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

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🤑 Home Run Derby betting insights

Who could bankrupt the sportsbooks tonight? Who is the public riding with? Here's a look at the betting insights for tonight's Home Run Derby, courtesy of BetMGM.

🗒️ 2025 Home Run Derby rules, format

MLB will use the same format for the 2025 Home Run Derby as it did in 2024. Here's how it works:

First round: Each of the eight participants gets three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many home runs as possible. After that, they get three untimed outs to tack on more homers until a third out is recorded. The top four move on.

Second round: The four highest scorers from Round 1 are seeded and face off - No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3. The same timing and pitch limits apply, with the winners advancing to the finals.

Final round: The last two players get two minutes or 27 pitches to hit as many home runs as they can, followed by a bonus round of three outs.

Extras: Each player can use one 45-second timeout per round before bonus time. If a batter launches a 425-foot homer in bonus time, they earn an extra out.

Tiebreakers: In Round 1, ties are broken by longest home run. In later rounds, a 60-second swing-off decides the winner, with additional three-swing faceoffs if necessary.

🏆 Past Home Run Derby winners

*2020 event cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

📺 How to watch Home Run Derby 2025

❓ Home Run Derby FAQs

When is the 2025 Home Run Derby?

The 2025 Home Run Derby will take place Monday, July 14, at Truist Park in Atlanta. The event begins at 8 p.m. ET.

Who is the Home Run Derby favorite?

Depending on the sportsbook you use, Cal Raleigh and Oneil Cruz are the consensus favorites on the Home Run Derby oddsboard. 

Who won the Home Run Derby last year?

Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernandez won the 2024 Home Run Derby, edging out Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. in a thrilling final, 14–13. Hernandez totaled 49 home runs over three rounds and became the first Dodgers player to win the event.

Who is participating in the Home Run Derby?

Headlining the field is hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr., joined by standout sluggers Byron Buxton, Cal Raleigh, and Oneil Cruz. The rest of the lineup features rising stars and breakout performers, including James Wood, Junior Caminero, Brent Rooker, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Where can I bet on the Home Run Derby?

Many of the best sportsbooks will carry 2025 Home Run Derby odds, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.

💰 MLB betting odds pages

💵 Best MLB betting sites

Want to bet on the Home Run Derby? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the MLB:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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