Home Run Derby Predictions Tonight: Winner, Long Shot & Prop Picks for 2025 Home Run Derby

The All-Star break's most anticipated event is hours away, and our Home Run Derby predictions highlight our favorite winner, long shot, and prop picks for the tournament of round-trippers. The fun from Truist Park in Atlanta begins at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Byron Buxton, Junior Caminero, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Oneil Cruz, Matt Olson, Cal Raleigh, Brent Rooker, and James Wood make up the eight-man field squaring off in Major League Baseball's summer spectacle. Our best sports betting sites list Raleigh as the betting favorite at +300.

We analyze the Home Run Derby expert picks and Home Run Derby AI predictions to recommend the best winner bets, as well as the longest home run props - both distance and player. Here are our official 2025 MLB Home Run Derby predictions.

Bet on tonight's Home Run Derby winner at FanDuel and receive $1 in bonus bets for each home run that player hits! Be sure to opt in; available to eligible U.S. residents only.

💰 Best bets for Home Run Derby

Here are our best bets for today's 2025 Home Run Derby from our best sports betting apps:

🏆 Best bet to win the Home Run Derby

🥇 Byron Buxton

📊 Best odds: +950 via DraftKings ($10 to win $95)

---

Few outfielders not named Aaron Judge possess as much pop and power as Buxton. Minnesota's star man clubbed 21 homers during the first half of the season, putting himself among the league leaders in that statistic. He now returns to his home state in search of some silverware courtesy of the derby.

Buxton's Savant page is littered with red in some key categories. He boasts an average exit velocity of 92.1 miles per hour (88th percentile), a barrel percentage of 15.8 (92nd percentile), and a hard-hit percentage of 55.3 (96th percentile). Furthermore, the 31-year-old's bat speed ranks in the 90th percentile.

Those underlying stats set him up nicely for success in this contest.

A majority of the outfielder's home runs are pulled to left field, which bodes well for him at the hitter-friendly Truist Park despite the deeper dimensions because of his average launch angle. Buxton's swing features a natural uppercut as well, which boosts fly ball rates in a batting practice setting.

If Buxton can become the latest Twins star to find success in the Home Run Derby, a $10 wager would return $95 at DraftKings.

📈 Home Run Derby favorites

🎯 Best Home Run Derby long shot bet

🪓 Matt Olson

📊 Best odds: +900 via FanDuel ($10 to win $90)

---

Olson's numbers don't jump off the page, as he's tied for the second-fewest round-trippers in the Home Run Derby field. However, don't discount experience and home-field advantage.

The Braves' slugger is in a familiar setting at Truist Park, which favors left-handers. Olson's familiarity with both the ballpark and event - as the only returning participant - give him a major edge over other hitters. He's also used to the climate and pace of the competition.

For all of these reasons, we believe Atlanta's hopeful Home Run Derby hero is a much better bet at FanDuel's +900 odds than others trading at shorter odds. A $10 wager on Olson leads to a $90 if he can become the first slugger to lift silverware in his home park since Bryce Harper in 2018.

🚀 Best bet to hit Home Run Derby's longest HR

🪵 James Wood

Washington's 22-year-old phenom is most commonly compared to Bronx Bombers such as Giancarlo Stanton and Judge because of the punch he packs. He's one of three hitters in the field to surpass the 450-foot mark with a dinger this season, alongside Oneil Cruz and Buxton. 

Wood's odds at our best sportsbooks tell the story of a masher expected to compete for the crown. However, we're staying away from that market with the youngster due to his poor fly ball percentage (126th out of 155 qualified hitters).

Instead, we're banking on the Nationals' star to use every inch of his 6-foot-7 frame to take one poor ball for the longest ride this evening (+185). His odds imply a 35.09% probability that he produces the highlight homer of the 2025 event.

📊 Best odds: +185 via FanDuel ($10 to win $18.50)

Bet on tonight's Home Run Derby winner at FanDuel and receive $1 in bonus bets for each home run that player hits!

Be sure to opt-in; available to eligible U.S. residents only.

🏟️ Player to hit longest home run odds

💥 Best prop bet for longest home run

📏 Over 479.5 feet

📊 Best odds: -120 via Caesars ($10 to win $8.33)

---

We've spoken ad nauseam already about the pop of this event's sluggers. While Buxton's 479-foot blast is the longest four-bagger any of the eight participants have clubbed this season, the derby unlocks another level with these hitters.

There's been an increase in 500-plus-foot homers hit - thanks to Coors Field, Judge, and Stanton - over the last decade at the Home Run Derby. We believe one or two hitters tonight can come close to that distance, if not surpass it, in the hot, humid air of Atlanta's Truist Park.

This is why we're opting to back the Over on the 479.5-foot mark from Caesars in this unique market. The -120 odds on this pick indicate a slight lean to the Over, but we're comfortable playing this prop anywhere to -150 with the plethora of power on display tonight.

🤑 Home Run Derby betting insights

Who is the biggest liability tonight? Who is the public loving? Here's a look at the betting insights for tonight's Home Run Derby, courtesy of BetMGM.

🔮 Expert Home Run Derby picks

• Home Run Derby Predictions & Best Bets
• Home Run Derby Odds & Expert Picks
• Home Run Derby AI Picks

💵 Best MLB betting sites

Want to bet on the Home Run Derby? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the MLB:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.