Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Can Wheeler Extend New York's Misery?

The Philles could seize first place in the NL East behind another gem from Zack Wheeler.

Last Updated: June 20, 2025 4:45 PM EDT • 3 minute read

After dropping six straight games, the New York Mets (45-30) come up against a tough challenge tonight while clashing with the Philadelphia Phillies (45-30), who are -190 home favorites to win this NL East showdown and snatch the top spot in the division.

We're analyzing our Mets vs. Phillies prediction, odds, and best bets with first pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV+) from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia:

Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Phillies -1.5 (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under prediction: Under 8.5 (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Best player prop pick: Zack Wheeler Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾ Mets vs. Phillies predictions & odds

🔎 Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best MLB odds to make your best MLB picks.

📊 Live Mets vs. Phillies odds

🧢 Mets vs. Phillies starting pitchers

Mets: Blade Tidwell (0-1, 14.73 ERA)
Phillies: Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.76 ERA)

💰 Mets vs. Phillies prediction & best bet

✅ Best bet: Wheeler Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-160 via Caesars)

Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boosts

New users only. Must use promo code. Min. $10 deposit. Max. bonus is ten 100% Profit Boost tokens. Profit Boost tokens expire in 14 days. Void where prohibited. Full terms.

Claim Boosts

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

The Mets' bats have been in a world of hurt over the last two days - registering five hits through 8 2/3 scoreless innings against Chris Sale before going down eight times on strikes against Spencer Strider in a 7-1 loss to finish the sweep against the Atlanta Braves.

It won't get any easier against Wheeler, who finished second in the Cy Young odds last year and has been even better this year. The Phillies ace leads all qualified starters in xERA (2.34) while ranking second in SIERA (2.61) and strikeout rate (32.5%), and he's allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of 14 starts.

Wheeler already held the Mets to two runs through six frames earlier this season, and he's priced at a roughly 60% probability to do that for the 10th time in 11 starts dating back to mid-April. Even if you don't love laying the short price, it's hard to argue against the raw value on my favorite prop bet of the day.

📈 Mets vs. Phillies betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM during the hours before gametime:

The Phillies have gradually been lengthening on the moneyline while moving from -250 to -200
Much of the moneyline action remains on Philadelphia, with the Phillies getting 64% of the bets and 55% of the handle
The Over on 8.5 runs is also drawing most of the attention, with 61% of the bets and 78% of the handle heading in that direction

💡 More MLB predictions today

💵 Best MLB betting sites

Want to bet on Mets vs. Phillies? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's MLB games:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Written by:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.