Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Baseball

Our New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction has faith in Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 22, 2025 1:33 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Sole possession of first place in the National League East is up for grabs during the Sunday Night Baseball rubber match between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

Our Mets vs. Phillies prediction and picks back the home favorites to send New York to its third straight series loss.

We went 3-0 with our Mets vs. Phillies bets yesterday, including two plus-money player props, and we're back to continue that momentum both here and in our Mets vs. Phillies player props. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

💰 Best Mets vs. Phillies predictions: Sunday Night Baseball

Here are my best Mets vs. Phillies Sunday Night Baseball predictions for today's MLB matchup with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on the MLB.

🔢 Mets vs. Phillies odds & betting lines

Here are the latest Mets vs. Phillies odds and betting lines from our best live betting sites.

📊 Who will win today's Sunday Night Baseball matchup?

As of Sunday morning, the Phillies are favored to beat the Mets in today's MLB matchup at 7 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. I'm predicting the Phillies will beat the Mets as -108 moneyline favorites.

🎯 Mets vs. Phillies score prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 3

Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo is being doubted after poor back-to-back starts, even though his collective body of work has been spectacular.

Luzardo allowed 16 earned runs over 67 innings in his first 11 starts while only surrendering three home runs. But he followed that up with 20 earned runs in 5 ⅔ combined innings in his next two starts.

Luzardo was revealed to have been tipping his pitches through that rough stretch. Since then, he has been much better, especially from a swing-and-miss perspective, with 14 strikeouts in his last 11 innings.

However, as our Sean Tomlinson notes in his best home run predictions today, Pete Alonso matches up well against Luzardo.

It seems like forever ago when the Phillies went 1-9 in a 10-game stretch, averaging just three runs per game while getting outscored by 30. They batted .189 and totaled a .560 OPS as a team.

Despite yesterday’s offensive outburst, the Mets are still just 8-for-51 with runners in scoring position over the previous eight games. They have not won a series against a winning team since the beginning of the month, which is why I predict Philadelphia will beat New York 5-3.

Best bet: Phillies ML (-108 via BetMGM)

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1️⃣ Sunday Night Baseball first-inning prediction: YRFI (-120 via BetMGM)

The NRFI is 8-2 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games against NL opponents. However, the full-game Over is 8-1 in the previous nine games between these teams at Citizens Bank Park. With 27 combined runs being scored in the two games so far this series, I expect early offense.

📺 How to watch Sunday Night Baseball

⚔️ Matchup: Mets vs. Phillies
📅 Date: June 22
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: YouTube TV

🔮 Sunday Night Baseball expert picks

🏆 MLB betting odds pages

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”