Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: Sunday Night Baseball

We like Philadelphia to win in a high-scoring game as we offer our Phillies vs. Guardians prediction and odds for Sunday Night Baseball.

Mike Spector

Last updated: May 11, 2025 3:06 PM EDT • 4 min read

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-16) and Cleveland Guardians (23-16) wrap up their three-game set on Sunday Night Baseball after trading six-run wins in the first two matchups.

For our Phillies vs. Guardians prediction, we’re steering clear of Philadelphia’s steep -170 moneyline and instead see better value targeting the Over/Under. First pitch is set for 7 p.m. ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, with national coverage on ESPN.

👉 For more coverage, check out our Phillies vs. Guardians player props.

💰 Best Phillies vs. Guardians predictions: Sunday Night Baseball

Here are my best Phillies vs. Guardians Sunday Night Baseball predictions for today's MLB matchup. Be sure to check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on the MLB.

🔢 Phillies vs. Guardians odds & betting lines

Here are the latest Phillies vs. Guardians odds and betting lines from our best live betting sites.

📊 Who will win today's Sunday Night Baseball matchup?

As of Sunday morning, the Phillies are favored to beat the Guardians in today's MLB matchup at 7 p.m. ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. Philadelphia has won four straight series and should win a fifth as I’m predicting the Phillies will beat the Guardians as -170 favorites.

🎯 Phillies vs. Guardians score prediction: Phillies 5, Guardians 4

Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is still widely considered a top-five NL Cy Young Award candidate in the National League. But with the juice lying with the Over of 7.5 runs despite these teams playing two low-scoring games to start this series, I am intrigued by the contrarian nature of this play.

In Wheeler’s eight starts this season, the Phillies and their opponents have combined for nine or more runs five times, including three of the previous four.

And while Wheeler has recorded 18-plus outs in five consecutive starts, Cleveland makes starting pitchers work by running up their pitch counts.

If the Guardians can knock Wheeler out after six or fewer innings, that bodes well for late offense. The Phillies bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA and 14th in FIP. I also expect Philadelphia’s bats to come to life against Luis Ortiz, who has pitched to a 1.420 WHIP and whose walk rate is up 64% from last season.

I predict these two teams will exceed the projected total, and Philadelphia will beat Cleveland by 5-4. FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites charging the standard -110 juice to back the Over.

Best bet: Over 7.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

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1️⃣ Sunday Night Baseball first-inning prediction: YRFI/NRFI (Keep only your choice and add odds via BetMGM)

No runs have been scored through three innings, let alone the first inning of the first two games of this series. And with the NRFI cashing in each of Cleveland’s last six games as underdogs against NL opponents, BetMGM offers excellent value with a 56.52% implied probability for it to cash again.

🚑 Sunday Night Baseball injuries

Here are the latest injuries for tonight's Phillies vs. Guardians matchup, which will update in real time.

📺 How to watch Sunday Night Baseball

⚔️ Matchup: Phillies vs. Guardians
📅 Date: May 11
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: MLB.TV, Sling TV, YouTube TV

❓ Sunday Night Baseball FAQs

Who is favored to win Phillies vs. Guardians?

The Phillies are trading as -170 moneyline favorites at our best sports betting apps, which gives them a 62.96% implied probability.

What are the odds for Phillies vs. Guardians?

The Phillies are receiving odds as high as +105 to lay the -1.5 runs with the run line, while Cleveland’s +1.5 odds are at -125. All of our best sportsbooks are in agreement with a total of 7.5 runs, with the Over juiced to -115 or higher at most.

What time is Phillies vs. Guardians tonight?

The first pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.

How to watch Phillies vs. Guardians

The Phillies vs. Guardians MLB matchup will air on ESPN.

🏆 MLB betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”