Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Value in First Five Innings

Can the visitors pounce to cash our best bets before a turn to the bullpens?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 4, 2025 5:55 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Friday, July 4 — Pictured: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito throws. Photo by Joe Nicholson via Imagn Images.

The Fourth of July Major League Baseball slate starts early from our nation’s capital as the Washington Nationals (37-50) host the Boston Red Sox (43-45). Our Red Sox vs. Nationals prediction has you covered for the opening game of a three-game interleague series. First pitch from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., is set for 11:05 a.m. ET (MLBN).

Red Sox vs. Nationals prediction: Red Sox to win (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under prediction: Under 8.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best player prop pick: Lucas Giolito Over 17.5 outs (-140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Red Sox first five innings moneyline (-104 via FanDuel )

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Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito’s early-season turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable. Through his first seven starts, Giolito pitched to a 6.42 ERA through 33 2/3 innings, while allowing a .324 opponents’ average and 1.63 WHIP. Over his last four starts, those numbers have improved remarkably, with a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings, allowing a .170 opponents’ average and a 0.88 WHIP.

Giolito’s recent success should propel Boston to an early lead. The biggest reason for limiting this wager to the first five innings is that Washington has eight wins this season when trailing in the eighth inning or later (it had seven such wins all of last season).

This play also comes with confidence since the Nationals have trailed after three innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs against AL opponents. Backing Boston on the first five innings moneyline is a great value at -104 odds, especially since FanDuel has the Red Sox at -116 odds (carrying a 53.70% implied probability) to win the game outright.

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❓MLB betting FAQs

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”