Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Whose Struggles Continue?

Can the Yankees snap a five-game skid in the Subway Series opener?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 4, 2025 7:37 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Friday, July 4 — Pictured: New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor reacts after striking out. Photo by Brad Penner via Imagn Images.

Two struggling rivals meet in the first game of the Subway Series as the New York Mets (50-38) host their crosstown rivals, the New York Yankees (48-39). The Yankees are -105 moneyline underdogs at our best sports betting sites as they look to avoid losing their fifth-straight game. We have our Yankees vs. Mets prediction to get you taken care of ahead of first pitch from Citi Field in Queens at 3:10 p.m. ET (MLBN).

Yankees vs. Mets prediction: Mets to win (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under prediction: Over 9 (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best player prop pick: Francisco Lindor Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+112 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The Yankees are scuffling, having lost four straight games and 14 of 20, while watching their 4.5-game lead in the AL East disappear. While the Mets have not been much better, going 5-14 in their last 19, they may have found something with a mid-week lineup tweak.

In Wednesday’s 7-3 win in the second game of a doubleheader against Milwaukee, the Mets moved Francisco Lindor out of the leadoff spot for the first time since 2024. The team responded with seven runs, while Lindor collected three hits. New leadoff man Brandon Nimmo hit a grand slam after totaling just four RBI in the previous 15 games.

The Mets were likely reluctant to move Lindor out of the leadoff spot this season, given their splits with him batting leadoff versus other spots in the lineup last season.

New York went 69-49 after May 17 last year when Lindor was moved to the leadoff spot, and averaged five runs per game with a .760 team OPS. Before the move, the Mets were just 20-24 while averaging 4.2 runs per game and a team .666 OPS.

Despite those splits, our five-star confidence in the Mets stems from a Yankees bullpen that is running on fumes. The Bronx Bombers surrendered 36 runs in the four-game series against the Blue Jays, which tips the scale in the Mets’ favor.

I am making this wager at FanDuel, the only one of our best sports betting apps offering the Mets at cheaper than -115 odds.

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❓MLB betting FAQs

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”