2025 Belmont Stakes Odds & Position: Favorites to Win at Saratoga Race Course

Saturday gives us what we need to wrap up the 2025 Triple Crown: Kentucky Derby champion Sovereignty against Preakness Stakes winner Journalism in the 157th Belmont Stakes.

We're having a first look at the weekend's activities by examining the Belmont Stakes odds and post position. Saturday's post time is scheduled for 7:04 p.m. ET (FOX).

For the second year running, the storied Saratoga Race Course will serve as a stand-in for Belmont Park, running 1 1/4 miles instead of the traditional 1 1/2.

Can 8-5 morning-line favorite Journalism can claim another title in the rubber match between two of the top 3-year-olds in the country?

🐎 Belmont Stakes odds & post position 2025

Here are the latest Belmont Stakes odds for the 2025 Test of the Champion, with odds via FanDuel Racing.

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🥇 Belmont Stakes favorite

Journalism (8-5)

Trainer Michael McCarthy gets well-earned props for not only conditioning the best horse in the field but letting horse racing fans actually watch him run. Barring a late scratch, Journalism will be the only horse to run in all three Triple Crown races. His scintillating victory in the Preakness three weeks ago, blasting through a pinhole opening, bouncing off two horses, and running down Gosger in deep stretch, saved that race and its anemic field.

The son of 2007 Preakness champion Curlin gets another shot at one of the three colts to beat him in seven races, Sovereignty, who reeled in Journalism in the final sixteenth to win the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths. That marks Journalism’s only loss as a 3-year-old and snapped a four-race winning streak that included victories in three graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

Journalism checks many of the boxes of a Belmont winner: he’s a graded stakes winner who is the progeny of a Grade 1 route race winner; he ran in the Derby (12 of the last 20 Belmont winners started at Churchill Downs) and has a nice slice of history on his side. Since 1990, the Derby and Preakness winners have faced each other eight times in the Belmont—and the Preakness winner has beaten the Derby winner to the wire seven of those eight times, with three Preakness winners winning the Belmont.

New York Racing Association morning-line author David Aragona made Journalism the 8-5 favorite despite knowing his two chief foes, Sovereignty and Derby third-place finisher Baeza, come in with two extra weeks of rest. If that gutsy Preakness didn’t tell you already, factoring that in from a respected linemaker like Aragona tells you what kind of special horse Journalism is.

🎯 Belmont Stakes long shot to watch

Baeza (4-1)

We are truly stretching the concept of “long shot” here, because you’re looking at the “wise-guy” colt in the Belmont field, one who will likely go off at shorter odds than his morning line. He’ll definitely go off at shorter odds than the 13.86-1 number he left the Churchill Downs starting gate at five weeks ago, when he overcame the Louisville muck, top-of-the-stretch traffic, and a wide trip to finish a neck behind runner-up Journalism in the Derby.

We liked Baeza as a long shot then, and nothing has changed our minds in this field. First, because it’s almost inconceivable that the three best horses in this eight-horse field, Journalism, Sovereignty, and Baeza, all lose the plot and fail to fire.

And second, because while you’re paying attention to Journalism vs. Sovereignty, you could be sleeping on not only the next-best horse in the field. His stalking style kept him within three-quarters of a length of Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and left him a neck short in the Derby, but nearly three lengths clear of fourth-place Final Gambit. Baeza is capable of picking up the pieces, especially with standout jockey Flavien Prat once again handling the reins.

"I don't want to take anything away from Sovereignty and Journalism, but we are close to them, and with any luck at all Baeza can win the Belmont," veteran trainer John Shirreffs told BloodHorse’s Bob Ehalt.

Finally, while we always pay attention to "who’s your daddy" among Belmont runners - and sire McKinzie is a four-time Grade 1 winner with more than $3.6 million in earnings - Baeza came out of the Big Brown mare Puca. Why is "Who’s Your Mummy" important here? If Baeza prevails Saturday, he’ll be Puca’s third winner of a Triple Crown race in the last three years. She foaled last year’s Belmont Stakes winner in Dornoch and the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, Mage.

❌ Belmont Stakes pick to avoid

Uncaged (30-1)

Usually, if you see a Todd Pletcher charge enter the Belmont Stakes, you feel a magnetic pull taking you to the betting window and a sense of confidence opening your wallet. That’s because the Hall of Fame conditioner has won four of these, the last coming with Mo Donegal in 2022.

Add in his nine runners-up (including Mindframe last year) and four third-place finishes, and Pletcher has hit the board 17 times since 2006. Pletcher is to the Belmont as Bob Baffert is to the Kentucky Derby and D. Wayne Lukas is to the Preakness - a nearly automatic go-to trainer who seemingly always has the horse for this course.

Uncaged, however, is not that horse for this Belmont course.

First, there’s his manic-depressive CV, which includes winning his only 2-year-old start in the Saratoga slop in his first race last summer. A weak fourth in a Gulfstream Park dirt race as the 7-10 favorite came next in March, followed by an allowance optional claiming win over a mile in the Aqueduct slop in April. When Pletcher turned Uncaged loose in a graded stakes race - the G2 Peter Pan Stakes last month - he flunked that test by tiring into a sixth-place finish, nearly 11 lengths behind winner Hill Road over the 1 1/8 mile test.

Put all that in the handicapping blender and you have a horse who doesn’t have nine furlongs in him, much less 10, can’t run on a dry track, and doesn’t have the speed necessary to contend in a quality field like this one. If you have to bet a Pletcher charge, throw a few dollars down-ticket on 15-1 Crudo. Pletcher may be a Hall of Famer who knows his way to the Belmont Stakes winner’s circle. But he isn’t a miracle worker.

Belmont Stakes info

• When: Saturday, June 7
• Post time: 7:04 p.m. ET
• Where: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, N.Y.)
• How to watch: FOX

Belmont Stakes betting strategies

This is the second of three Belmont Stakes detours upstate to Saratoga, which reduces the distance from the traditional 1 ½ mile “Test of a Champion” to a 1 ¼-mile Test of Adaptation. And last year’s winner, Dornoch, fit the typical running style of a Belmont winner or a winner of a typical 10-furlong race at Saratoga. He was a pace-presser/stalker.

The blueprint for a Belmont Stakes winner is a pace-presser/stalker who can stay close to the leaders, because 14 of the 25 races were won by pressers/stalkers who were within four lengths of the lead at the first call. According to Equibase, 16 of the last 18 Belmont winners were within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the first half-mile. That includes Dornoch, who was a half-length back in second after the first half-mile of last year’s race. He was the eighth winner who was in a top-three position since 2005.

This benefits two of the best three horses in the field: Journalism and Baeza, both of whom are stalkers.

What about pace-setters? They may thrive at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, but not here. Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify, along with 38-1 freak-show Da’Tara, are the only three horses this century to wire the field. Consider that your cautionary tale, Rodriguez and Crudo fans.

And what about closers? Handicapper Noel Michaels broke down the 34 1 1/4-mile dirt races run at Saratoga since 2000. He found that closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace were 4 for 34–a woeful 11.8% success rate. The last closer to win the Belmont Stakes from more than 10 lengths back was Jazil, in 2006. This does not bode well for noted closer Sovereignty, nor fellow closers Hill Road or Heart of Honor.

Belmont Stakes trends and stats

• Derby Darlings: What’s the quickest ticket to the Belmont Stakes winner’s circle? Going through Churchill Downs. That’s because 12 of the last 20 Belmont winners (60%) ran in the Kentucky Derby. Of those 12, 10 bypassed the Preakness. 
• Stakes, Not Flakes: Game recognizes game here. Ten of the last 11 Belmont winners and 11 of the last 13 winners had a graded stakes victory on their CV. Take it further, and you find six of the seven horses who captured the Belmont for their first graded stakes victory had hit the board in an earlier graded stakes race.
• Who’s Your Daddy? Pedigree in thoroughbred racing always matters to a certain degree, but in few other races does this matter as much as it does in the Belmont Stakes. Look at the pedigrees of recent Belmont Stakes winners and you find 16 of the last 18 and 22 of the last 25 came from a sire who won a Grade 1 race of 1 1/8 miles or farther. 
• To Favor… Or Not to Favor: The average odds on a Belmont Stakes winner over the last 20 years is 10.38-1. There are two trends to take into account here. First, five of the last nine winners went off at 5-2 or less, which includes a four-time-in-five-year span between 2018 (Justify) and 2022 (Mo Donegal) where the favorite prevailed. Second, however, when you take out Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify, 17 of the last 21 favorites failed to run to their odds. Including 17-1 Dornoch last year, 11 of the last 25 Belmont Stakes winners went off at double-digit odds. A 12th (Tonalist) was 9-1. This encompasses the aforementioned Da’Tara in 2008, Sir Winston (10.20-1 in 2019), Creator (16.40-1 in 2016), Palace Malice (13.80-1 in 2013), Ruler On Ice (24.75-1 in 2011), and Drosselmeyer (13-1 in 2010).
• Time to Go Outside: When handicappers Michaels broke down the post-position success at Saratoga for 10-furlong races, he discovered that post position didn’t matter as much for stalkers and closers, only speed horses. In last year’s race, Dornoch won from Post 6 in a 10-horse field by stalking the pace. Every horse that hit the board in the superfecta (Dornoch, Mindframe, Sierra Leone, and Honor Marie) started from Post 6 and out.

How to bet on horse racing

Some other general strategies to consider for your Belmont Stakes picks that apply in general when betting on horse racing include:

• Understanding the basics: Horse racing offers a variety of betting options, but the most common bet is to pick a horse to win, place, or show. A "win" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, a "place" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first or second, and a "show" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, second, or third. Additionally, you can bet on multiple horses in different combinations, such as exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) or trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Handicapping the race: Before placing your bets, it's important to do some research and analyze the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and past performances. Look at factors such as recent form, speed figures, class level, and how well the horse has performed on similar track surfaces and distances. You can also consider factors like post position, workout times, and any changes in equipment or jockey.

Placing your bets: Once you've done your research and identified potential winners, it's time to place your bets. Head to the betting window or use a betting app to place your wagers. Be sure to specify the type of bet you're making (win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the horse's program number, and the amount you want to wager. Double-check your bet slip before confirming to ensure accuracy.

Where can I bet on the Belmont Stakes?

Americans can legally wager on horse racing in the following states.

🏇 Horse racing betting odds pages

💵 Best Belmont Stakes betting sites

Want to bet on the Belmont Stakes? Here are the best horse racing betting sites and the best sportsbook promos for Saturday's race:

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