Emanuel Navarrete vs. Charly Suarez Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds Tonight: Super Featherweight

Emanuel Navarrete aims to hand Charly Suarez his first professional loss tonight as the two clash in a super featherweight (junior lightweight) title bout at Pechanga Arena in San Diego. Our Navarrete vs. Suarez prediction breaks down what to expect in this high-stakes showdown.

Navarrete, the reigning WBO champion and three-division titleholder, makes his fourth defense of the belt. He’s coming off a sixth-round knockout of Oscar Valdez in their December rematch and enters with an impressive 39-2-1 record, including 32 stoppages.

Suarez, unbeaten in 18 fights with 10 knockouts, earned this shot after dismantling Jorge Castaneda in under three rounds last fall.

🥊 Navarrete vs. Suarez prediction & fight preview

Suarez might boast a two-inch edge in reach, but that won’t matter come fight night.

While the challenger likes to claim the center and pop the jab to both the head and body, he’s tasked with defeating a dog in Navarrete, who never goes away and knows how to throw when being pressed backward. Furthermore, the clear edge in strength of schedule lies with the defending champion, who boasts over double Suarez’s fights, and against stiffer competition.

Navarrete is no stranger to working off the back foot, most notably during his pair of recent wins against Valdez. He’ll need to do the same against Suarez while pumping the jab to keep the challenger honest and finding the timing on his hooks and uppercuts. Navarrete has made a career out of outlasting his man, and I expect him to do the same while taking over this clash within a handful of rounds en route to the W.

The defending WBO king heads to San Diego as a heavy favorite, with all the best boxing betting sites offering little value on a straight-up Navarrete win. Indeed, FanDuel lists Navarrete at just -600 as of Friday morning, with DraftKings getting our nod at -500.

✅ Prediction: Navarrete to win (-500 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 83.3%

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💰 Navarrete vs. Suarez best bet

Between Suarez’s habit of claiming the center and Navarrete’s chin, resilience, and volume, there’s little reason to believe these two will need all 12 rounds. 

The challenger certainly is no can, but he’s taking a significant step up in competition late in the game at age 36, and Navarrete should prove a bridge too far. Not only is Navarrete durable, he maintains a solid output, knows how to mix up his targets, and boasts a whopping 32 stoppages across 39 career wins.

With Suarez no doubt coming out aggressively from the opening bell, look for Navarrete to work off the back foot through the early rounds before taking over and overwhelming a game, yet outmatched Suarez with hooks and uppercuts for the stoppage.

Unlike this matchup’s straight moneyline action, the prop lines on a stoppage victory for Navarrete are quite compelling. While FanDuel and DraftKings offer a 33rd career KO/TKO for the champ at -120 and -115, respectively, BetMGM leads the way as our best bet at a solid -110.

✅ Best bet: Navarrete by KO/TKO (-110 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 52.4%

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📊 Navarrete vs. Suarez odds

Odds via DraftKings as of Friday.

Those interested in betting on the reigning WBO champion will find some appealing action in the method of victory props, with Navarrete’s preferred method - the KO/TKO - offering solid value, and an eighth career win on points even more so at +185 as of Friday morning.

🆚 Navarrete vs. Suarez tale of the tape

📡 Navarrete vs. Suarez fight info & how to watch

🥊 Super featherweight/junior lightweight
📅 Saturday, May 10
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Pechanga Arena, San Diego, CA, US📺 ESPN | 🛜 ESPN+

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