Formula 1 Odds, Prediction 2025: Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri to Win F1 Championship?
Let's hope the Formula One season culminates like it did at the Hungarian Grand Prix, with almost nothing to choose between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri rounding the final turn.
Because let's be honest, no other driver has a puncher's chance of winning the 2025 Driver's Championship, as we discuss in our Formula One odds and prediction. But will it be Norris or Piastri securing the ultimate prize?
🏆 Formula 1 odds for 2025 championship
F1 championship odds via BetMGM, one of our best sports betting apps.
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Piastri | -165 | 62.26% | $6.06 |
| Lando Norris | +120 | 45.45% | $12 |
| Max Verstappen | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| George Russell | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Charles Leclerc | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
🟠 Formula 1 odds: McLaren's dominance sets up 2-horse race
At FanDuel, Max Verstappen is receiving odds of +6600 to win the F1 championship. Those 66-to-1 odds imply a 1.49% win probability. Considering he's the third-most likely to win it all after the McLaren drivers, it's a minuscule number.
Norris, who sits nine points behind Piastri in the 2025 Driver's Standings, is 88 points clear of Max Verstappen and 103 points ahead of fourth-place George Russell.
If you're looking for a real-life example of insurmountable, this is it.
🇦🇺 How did Piastri become minus-money F1 championship odds favorite?
The Australian struggled on home soil to open the 2025 season, finishing ninth after making a consequential mistake to ruin his bid to win Down Under.
He recovered expertly thereafter, winning four of the subsequent five races. Piastri has won six races (China, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Miami, Spain, and Belgium) and enjoyed a four-out-of-five run, winning three in a row in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Miami.
A beacon of consistency, Piastri has finished on the podium in 12 of 14 races, with the Canadian Grand Prix and the Australian Grand Prix the only exceptions. His longest dry patch spans three races, and his worst performance occurred on the opening day in Melbourne.
He also enjoyed a streak of eight successive races among the top three.
Attempting to win the F1 championship in his third season, Piastri's odds are as short as -180 at FanDuel. Those odds imply a 64.29% win probability.
🏴 Norris giving Piastri a run for his money
Norris has come back into the F1 championship odds race faster than the MCL39 accelerates after DRS (Drag Reduction System) is activated.
He has five victories (Hungary, Great Britain, Austria, Monaco, Australia), one fewer than Piastri, and the same number of podium finishes (12) as his Papaya teammate.
After crashing into the back of Verstappen at the Canadian Grand Prix, Norris had 176 points compared to Piastri's 198. The tide has since turned, with Norris cutting the deficit to nine entering the almost four-week summer break.
🏎️ McLaren packs a powerful one-two punch
The McLaren drivers have finished first and second in the last four races. The Canadian Grand Prix was the last race they didn't secure a one-two finish. It was also the only race in which both McLaren drivers finished off the podium, with Piastri in fourth and Norris 18th.
Of the 14 races, Norris and Piastri have seven one-two finishes. The Papaya teammates have won 11 races, with Verstappen and George Russell the only other drivers to win a Grand Prix this season.
📈 F1 championship odds comparison: Piastri vs. Norris
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Piastri | -170 | -180 | -165 | -160 | -163 |
| Lando Norris | +120 | +125 | +120 | +130 | +120 |
🔮 Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri to win F1 championship?
Lando Norris to win F1 championship
📊 Best odds: +130 via Caesars
🔢 Implied probability: 53.49%
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I've been on the Piastri bandwagon for most of the season, impressed by the Australian's poise, demeanor, and ability to execute in the most meaningful moments.
While he might not be the best driver on the circuit, he has shown masterful control of the most powerful and efficient car on the grid, and he's fully deserving of his minus-money odds across our best sports betting sites.
However, Norris has won three of the last four races and looks to be rounding into peak form.
The 25-year-old showcased all of his pedigree and guile at the Hungarian Grand Prix, holding off Piastri's challenge despite running on tires more weathered than an octogenarian's skin.
While it was just one win, the race in Budapest felt distinctly like a turning point as it highlighted Norris' resilience and experience.
Additionally, Norris peaked in the final 10 races of last season, putting pressure on Verstappen before fizzling. He won three of the final 10 races, finishing on the podium five times.
While Norris probably didn't want the summer break to arrive, he has the poise and self-belief to start where he left off when the season recommences for the Dutch Grand Prix (Aug. 29 to Sept. 1).
Before the season started, I backed Norris in my F1 odds and predictions to win the Driver's Championship, and I'm staying the course. Caesars offers the best value at +130, while DraftKings' +120 represents the least value.
❓ Formula 1 Driver's Championship FAQs
Who is the F1 championship favorite for 2025?
Oscar Piastri is the minus-money F1 championship odds favorite. His -165 odds at BetMGM represent an implied probability of 62.26%, via our odds converter.
Who won the Driver's Championship last year?
Max Verstappen took home the title in 2024 for the fourth straight season.
How many drivers take part in an F1 season?
There are 20 drivers for 10 participating teams.
Who holds the record for consecutive Driver's Championships?
Michael Schumacher holds the record for the most consecutive F1 Driver's Championships with five (2000 to 2004)
When is the next F1 Grand Prix race?
The Dutch Grand Prix is the next race, which takes place from Aug. 29 to Sept. 1.
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