Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Predictions 2025: Today's Expert Picks for July 4

Well, he did it again.

Joey Chestnut, the betting favorite across our best sports betting sites, reclaimed the Mustard Belt after downing 70.5 hot dogs today. He wrestled the title away from friend and foe Patrick Bertoletti, who ate 58 hot dogs and buns last year to end Chestnut's eight-year run. 

Below, we dropped our 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds, predictions, and expert picks prior to the spectacle starting.

👉 MORE: Patrick Bertoletti on Joey Chestnut, Fame & Motivation for 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

🌭 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds: Final numbers

Who won Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest today? Here are the final numbers from both the men's and women's contest.

🌭 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds & betting lines

Here were the latest betting odds via Caesars to win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island on July 4.

↕️ O/U hot dogs eaten

Caesars was also offering prop bets for seven of the top competitors in this year's event - including Chestnut and Miki Sudo, the respective betting favorites to win the men's and women's contests.

• Joey Chestnut: Over 71.5 (-105) | Under 71.5 (-125)
• Patrick Bertoletti: Over 53.5 (-120) | Under 53.5 (-110)
• James Webb: Over 50.5 (-130) | Under 50.5 (+100)
• Geoffrey Esper: Over 50.5 (+120) | Under 50.5 (-150)
• Nick Wehry: Over 48.5 (-115) | Under 48.5 (-115)
• Miki Sudo: Over 45.5 (-115) | Under 45.5 (-115)
• Derek Hendrickson: Over 32.5 (-115) | Under 32.5 (-115)

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📈 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM as the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest draws near.

• Chestnut being a massive favorite is leading to action on the underdogs, and most notably Bertoletti, who is drawing 40.4% of the bets and 27.4% of the handle
• Meanwhile, Chestnut is much further down while getting 12.8% of the bets; however, in the last 24 hours he's surged to and 51.6% of the handle
• The most popular prop bet throughout the week had been Chestnut going Under 71.5 hot dogs eaten, but that's flipped as of Friday morning

Updates heading into the big event

BetMGM has also provided betting insights in the final 24 hours before the big event.

• Chestnut has moved from -2500 to -2000; Bertoletti from +1600 to +1000; Wehry from +5000 to +4000
• Bertoletti is the worst outcome for the sportsbook, with 40.4% of the tickets and 27.4% of the handle

• Chestnut most hot dogs eaten market is the most bet market for today, more than outright winner
• While the Under had been previously the most popular side (86% of the handle on Thursday), the Over has taken over (59%)

• In the "Without Chestnut" market, Bertoletti leads with 68% of the handle
• Miki Sudo's total hot dogs eaten has moved from 44.5 to 46.5 in response to 92% of the handle coming on the Over

🏆 Who will win Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2025?

✅ Prediction: Joey Chestnut ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -1350 via FanDuel ($10 to win $0.74)

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The last time we saw Chestnut in a competitive hot dog eating contest, he set a new world record while inhaling 83 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes to beat Takeru Kobayashi during their heavily promoted Netflix special in September.

That should quell concerns about Chestnut's decline after his totals dipped in each of the last two contests before getting barred from last year's event. He should be especially motivated to steal the crown back from Bertoletti, who told SBR in an exclusive interview last week that he fully expects Chestnut to win.

So why just the three stars of confidence? You'd have to bet $13.50 just to win back a buck on your wager, and I'm not sure a 41-year-old Chestnut truly holds a 93.1% chance to win this contest as these odds imply. But if you're predicting an outright winner for Friday, it's hard to bet against the 16-time champion.

💰 Best bet to win Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest (w/o Chestnut)

✅ Prediction: Patrick Bertoletti ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +135 via DraftKings ($10 to win $13.50)

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It's easy to dismiss Bertoletti's victory last year in a field without Chestnut, but it feels like the market isn't paying close enough attention to how he won.

The Chicago-born eater, who ranks No. 2 in the world by Major League Eating, ate 58 hot dogs and buns to win the Mustard Belt. He's one of just three competitors (alongside Chestnut and Kobayashi) to ever hit that mark in this contest. His personal best far outpaces the field, and he should be motivated to reach 60 with his friend and longtime rival Chestnut returning to center stage.

While this bet opened as high as +190 last week, these odds at DraftKings are still a screaming value compared to the prices at FanDuel (-155) and BetMGM (-165), which both imply better than a 60% chance he finishes better than anyone besides Chestnut. I'd be shocked if he doesn't.

💰 Best prop bet for Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

✅ Prediction: Bertoletti Over 50.5 hot dogs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -140 via BetMGM ($10 to win $7.14)

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If you only place one bet this year, make it this one - and make it in a hurry.

This total opened as low as 48.5 in mid-June, and it's climbed to as high as 55.5 at FanDuel. Even that's a pretty reasonable mark considering that Bertoletti reached 58 last year and touched 60 in practice before that. He's also enjoyed an entire 12 months to build upon that personal best from last year.

Bertoletti told SBR last week that he's on pace with his training from last year. While he wouldn't reveal a specific number, I'm expecting him to land somewhere in the 55-60 range (my best guess is 57), and I'd be absolutely floored if he doesn't clear 50. That's why this is one of my strongest five-star endorsements of the year.

Again, you'll want to be quick to the counter with this bet. We've seen his total climb by a hot dog or two every single day in the leadup to this event across our best sportsbooks. But BetMGM appears to have missed the memo. Take full advantage while you still can.

🏆 Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winners

* Joey Chestnut was banned from the 2024 contest due to a partnership with a vegan hot dog company.

❓ Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest FAQs

Who is favored to win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Joey Chestnut is the favorite to win this year's hot dog eating contest with -1350 odds implying a 93.10% chance that he wins the Mustard Belt in his return to the event.

Who won the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest last year?

Patrick Bertoletti won last year's hot dog eating contest with 58 hot dogs and buns, setting a new personal best to become the first non-Chestnut winner since Matt Stonie in 2015.

When is the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will be held this Friday, July 4, as it is annually. The men's competition will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Where is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

The contest is held at Nathan's Famous in Coney Island, N.Y.

How to watch the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is televised on ESPN, with coverage beginning at 10 a.m. ET.

How long is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

The men's and women's competitions are 10 minutes.

What is the prize money for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

The winner for the men's and women's hot dog eating contests each receive $10,000 in prize money. There are also prizes for second place ($5,000), third place ($2,500), fourth place ($1,500), and fifth place ($1,000).

💵 Best sports betting sites

Want to bet on the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? Check out the best best sports betting apps and best sportsbook promos for this year's event:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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