Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon Final Expert Picks

The world's two best players meet in the Wimbledon final just five weeks after dueling in the French Open final. And we have two picks that are as good as the players themselves.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: July 12, 2025 7:58 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon Final Expert Picks — Pictured: The two Wimbledon finalists in action after the French Open Final as we offer our Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction. Photo by Jay Calderon via Imagn Images.

The titans of the tennis world square off in Sunday's Wimbledon final just five weeks after their show-stopping showdown in Paris, as we offer our Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, and best bet.

It's the final that most neutrals have desired since seeing Alcaraz save three championship points while overturning a two-set deficit against Sinner in the French Open final.

This is Sinner's chance to avenge that narrow defeat. However, the world No. 1 enters as the slight underdog across our best sports betting sites, with the favorite Alcaraz (-125) focused on completing the Wimbledon three-peat.

🎾 Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction & best bet

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best Wimbledon odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Pick to win: Sinner ML (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Over 40.5 games (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️

📊 Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds: Wimbledon 2025

Latest Wimbledon odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.

Player	Odds to win	Probability
Carlos Alcaraz	-125	55.56%
Jannik Sinner	+105	48.78%

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🏆 Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz expert pick to win

✅ Sinner ML ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +110 via Caesars ($10 to win 11)
🔢 Implied probability: 47.62%

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The comparison between these two titans is tighter than the security to get into the All England Club on Championship Sunday.

Alcaraz and Sinner have won the last six Grand Slams, taking three apiece. Excluding an uncharacteristic showing against Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 16, Sinner hasn't dropped a set at this Wimbledon.

The only player other than Dimitrov to take a set against Sinner in his previous 13 Grand Slam matches is Alcaraz, who overcame a two-set deficit to upend the Italian in the French Open final.

Sinner steamrolled a labored Novak Djokovic in the semifinal, showcasing his ruthless efficiency and unerring ground strokes. He is the embodiment of poise and control, enduring inconsistent patches as seldom as a billionaire faces financial hardship.

While Alcaraz is more versatile and explosive, he has shown signs of vulnerability, requiring at least four sets in four of six matches thus far.

I also believe in Sinner's ability to channel his recent frustration against Alcaraz to conjure his best performance against the dazzling Spaniard. Sinner, who has lost five straight matches to Alcaraz, is too elite for that particularly onerous patch to continue.

That's why I'm backing him to secure his first Wimbledon crown, putting an end to Alcaraz's 20-match win streak and at the All England Club and 5-0 unbeaten run in Grand Slam finals.

Of our best sports betting apps, Caesars' +110 odds represent the best value.

💰 Best Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prop bet

✅ Over 40.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -134 via FanDuel ($10 to win $7.46)
🔢 Implied probability: 57.26%

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I'd be as surprised as Sinner was in seeing his French Open final lead evaporate if Sunday's match isn't a back-and-forth marathon. Four of their previous five meetings went the distance, two of which were five-set classics at Roland-Garros.

They've collided four times at majors, three of which extended to a fifth and deciding set. Three of those four matches had at least 45 games, with the solitary Under falling two short of the 41-game threshold. The average across those four matches is 50 games.

The disparity between these two players is almost negligible, akin to comparing whether Snickers or a KitKat Chunky is the better candy bar, so I'm confident in doling out a rare five-star rating.

DraftKings' -120 odds is marginally better than FanDuel's -122. Meanwhile, BetMGM (-160) offers the least value of our best sportsbooks.

📺 How to watch Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Wimbledon 2025

📍 Date: Sunday, July 13
🕘 Time: 11 a.m. ET
🏟️ Location: All England Club (London)
📡 How to watch: ESPN, ESPN+

💵 Best tennis betting sites

Want to bet on Wimbledon 2025? Check out the best sportsbook promos for this season's summer major:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.