2025 AdventHealth 400 Predictions at Kansas: Best NASCAR Odds, Expert Picks & Prop Bets

After a thriller at Texas, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway for another race on a high-speed intermediate track. We’ll dive into the NASCAR odds and my expert picks to win the 2025 AdventHealth 400 with the green flag set to wave at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) on Sunday.

📊 2025 AdventHealth 400 odds & favorites at Kansas

Here are the latest AdventHealth 400 odds and favorites at BetMGM as of Friday for Kansas Speedway.

🥇 AdventHealth 400 betting favorites 🥇

• Kyle Larson, +375 ($10 to win $37.50)
• Ryan Blaney, +650 ($10 to win $65)
• Tyler Reddick, +725 ($10 to win $72.50)
• William Byron, +825 ($10 to win $82.50)
• Denny Hamlin, +825 ($10 to win $82.50)
• Christopher Bell, +1000 ($10 to win $100)
• Alex Bowman, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Bubba Wallace, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Ross Chastain, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Joey Logano, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Chase Elliott, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Ty Gibbs, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Chris Buescher, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Josh Berry, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Chase Briscoe, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Kyle Busch, +3000 ($10 to win $300)

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🏁 AdventHealth 400 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Kansas

We’re through two high-speed intermediate races this season, and with Ford winning them both, it’s clear that the Blue Ovals have figured something out after basically being non-competitive at these tracks since 2022.

That said, Ford has gotten some good luck: Kyle Larson and Hendrick Motorsports have been mad fast at these tracks. Larson ranked first in average green-flag speed at both Las Vegas and Texas. His teammate, William Byron, ranked second and fourth.

But while Ford has improved, Toyota has regressed, especially Joe Gibbs Racing. Only Tyler Reddick was top five by average green flag speed in those events. With such a short turnaround from Texas, I predict William Byron will win the 2025 AdventHealth 400.

🏆 Pick to win AdventHealth 400: William Byron (+850 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Larson offering basically no value for bettors as a +375 favorite, I’m much more interested in his teammate further down the board. The pilot of the No. 24 Chevrolet leads the standings in points despite having won just one race (Daytona 500) this year.

Byron didn’t have a good day at Texas, but that largely came down to his off-cycle pit strategy not working out. He still managed a 13th-place result while averaging the fourth-highest green flag speed. He also finished fourth at Las Vegas while averaging the second-highest speed.

Just about everything came together favorably for Byron in 2023 as he won six races, and that luck extended somewhat into last year as he won three. With surprisingly long odds at DraftKings relative to Larson to get a win at Kansas, I’m featuring the less heralded Hendrick Motorsports driver on my card.

💎 Best value bet to win AdventHealth 400: Josh Berry (+3000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Four drivers have been top five by average green flag speed at the two high-speed intermediate tracks this season: Larson, Byron, Reddick, and … Berry? The journeyman driver for Wood Brothers Racing ranked fourth at Las Vegas (which he won) and fifth at Texas (where he finished 32nd). 

While Berry finds himself in elite company through a two-race sample, his betting odds don’t reflect it. Larson (+375), Reddick (+725), and Byron (+825) are three of the four favorites. Berry’s unofficial teammate, Ryan Blaney (+650), is the fourth. Yet Berry himself clocks in at +3000 on FanDuel.

Berry hasn’t done anything at Kansas in his NASCAR career ... yet. He failed to score a top 10 in three starts in the Cup Series. He failed to score a top five in three starts in Xfinity. But he now finds himself driving full time in top-tier equipment, and his recent performance suggests this line is way too long.

🎯 Best long shot to win AdventHealth 400: Austin Cindric (+5000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We featured Cindric in this space last weekend, and he proceeded to qualify third, put together the best 10-lap average in practice, win the first stage, lead 60 laps, and … finish 25th. Woof. Still, we got him at +8000 for him to close at +2000 or shorter across our best sports betting sites. That’s a good process. Let’s repeat it.

Cindric and the Fords at Team Penske have unlocked some serious pace at high-speed intermediates, which is why they’ve swept them so far. While Cindric isn’t the best driver in the camp, he was seventh by average green flag speed at Las Vegas and 12th at Texas.

The other note for Cindric is his Xfinity Series resume at Kansas. He may not have won a race here, but he led the most laps and posted the best driver rating in the summer of 2020 and the fall of 2021, leading a combined 75% of all possible laps. These odds are just too long at BetMGM.

💰 Best AdventHealth 400 prop bets & picks at Kansas

With Ford delivering for us in a big way last week at +330, you may be surprised that we’re not double-dipping now that they’re +265 this weekend. That 4.1% swing in implied probability is a big one, especially at a track with less variance than Texas.

Instead, we’re looking to one of the sport’s most consistent drivers on the top-10 market - along with a long shot who has delivered for us already this season.

🔥 Best prop bet for AdventHealth 400: Alex Bowman top-10 finish (+100 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I like Berry to score a top 10 at +125 odds via ESPN BET, but Bowman should not have odds at or above even money anywhere. Most books have him between -140 (58.3%) and -130 (56.5%), so we’re scoring a really nice margin of edge with the +100 odds (50%) on a top-10 finish this weekend.

Bowman has been eighth by average green-flag speed at both high-speed intermediate tracks this year. He turned that into a seventh-place result at Las Vegas but only a 35th-place result at Texas. Some may be sleeping on him in this spot as a result of last week.

Among all active drivers, only one has a better average finish at Kansas in the NextGen Era than Bowman’s 7.2: Denny Hamlin (3.7). His teammate Larson (7.2) has the same average finish. Bowman has five top 10s in all five of his starts at Kansas in this span. Lock this one at -110 or better across our best sports betting apps.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for AdventHealth 400: John Hunter Nemechek top-10 finish (+1400 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Last weekend, I called out FanDuel for leaving too much value relative to its peers on the lower end of the top-10 prop market. That criticism proved wise as we cashed Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at +1100. However, that wasn’t the end of the story - Nemechek and Erik Jones also delivered as big long shots.

This weekend, I want exposure to one of those drivers. Nemechek edges his teammate Jones (+460) by a massive margin in price. While Nemechek’s average green flag speed at Las Vegas (25th) and Texas (20th) doesn’t point to much value, he has proven too consistent for a price this long.

Nemechek piloted an arguably worse No. 42 Toyota to a 13th-place finish here last season despite the 23rd average green-flag speed. Further, in three Xfinity Series starts at Kansas, Nemechek has two wins, including a dominant performance in 2023 when he led 154 of 200 laps.

📈 AdventHealth 400 trends & Kansas Speedway history

Here are a few AdventHealth 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Kansas Speedway.

🏎️ Start up front, finish up front. Five of the last six Kansas Speedway winners - and nine of the last 10 - started in the first five rows. The lone exception, Ross Chastain, made a late-race surge to win at Kansas last Fall.

🏎️ Toyota or Hendrick Motorsports? Since the NextGen Era began, only Toyota or Hendrick Motorsports drivers have led the most laps or won the pole at Kansas. 

🏎️ Ring the Bell. Christopher Bell has won three straight poles at Kansas. Further, in the six races in the NextGen Era at Kansas, he has five top 10s.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Kansas

We’re back to a high-speed intermediate oval this weekend, which again means raw speed and equipment are at a premium. Unlike Texas, Kansas has a smoother surface and shouldn’t feature as many on-track incidents, so here are my NASCAR betting strategy tips for Kansas:

• Pay attention to practice! Last week, Team Penske had two of the top four drivers by 10-lap average and managed to win the race. Last fall, the two drivers who led the most laps were both top six in the metric. Last spring, the two drivers who led the most laps were top four.
• Focus on the big teams. If you chased Spire Motorsports and Carson Hocevar (or his teammate, Michael McDowell) last weekend, you didn’t get a payout as the big teams delivered. Tier 1 and 2 teams are the ones to watch at Kansas.

🏆 Past Kansas Speedway winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Kansas Speedway winners entering Sunday's race.

📺 How to watch the 2025 AdventHealth 400 at Kansas

📅 Race date: Sunday, May 11, 2025
🕒 Start time: 3 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Kansas Speedway (Kansas City, Kansas)
📺 TV: FS1 | Streaming: FOX Sports App

❓ AdventHealth 400 FAQs

Who is favored to win the AdventHealth 400?

Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the 2025 AdventHealth 400 after winning last year’s race with opening odds of +375, which would return $37.50 in profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the spring Kansas race?

Kyle Larson (+375), Ryan Blaney (+650), and Tyler Reddick (+725) are the favorites to win Sunday at Kansas Speedway.

What time is the 2025 AdventHealth 400?

The 2025 AdventHealth 400 starts at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) on Sunday, May 11, from Kansas Speedway.

How to watch the 2025 AdventHealth 400

You can watch the AdventHealth 400 on FS1 or stream it via the FOX Sports App.

Who won the AdventHealth 400 last year?

Last year, Kyle Larson won the spring Kansas race after opening at +350 to do so.

🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for AdventHealth 400 at Kansas

Looking to bet on the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway? Here are our best sportsbooks for NASCAR and our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET.

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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