Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bet: June 29

Can Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury cover as 6-point favorites at home tonight, or does Las Vegas have an ace up its sleeve?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: June 29, 2025 1:57 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bet: June 29 — Pictured: Phoenix Mercury players Kahleah Copper, Sami Whitcomb, and Alyssa Thomas look to lead their team to victory tonight for our Aces vs. Mercury prediction. Photo by Patrick Breen / The Republic via Imagn Images.

The Phoenix Mercury carry a six-game win streak into Sunday’s showdown against the Las Vegas Aces at 6 p.m. ET on NBA TV at the PHX Arena, and our Aces vs. Mercury prediction expect a low-scoring affair.

Phoenix has soared up the WNBA championship odds and enters this matchup as a 6-point betting favorite. Can the Mercury cover with a strong performance by Alyssa Thomas, or will the Aces put an end to the winning run?

🔮 Aces vs. Mercury expert picks & predictions

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury ML (-235 via BetMGM) ⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -6 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 167.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Aces vs. Mercury?

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-235 via BetMGM)

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Phoenix hasn’t lost a game since June 7. Las Vegas is 2-4 over its last six games, and these two teams are no longer on the same level.

💰 Aces vs. Mercury prediction & WNBA best bet

Under 167.5 ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via FanDuel ($10 pays $9.09)

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Phoenix has emerged as a contender due to its ability on the defensive end. The Mercury rank third in the league with a defensive rating of 98.1, trailing only the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx.

This has resulted in a 9-6-1 clip to the Under for the Mercury. They have held their opponents to an average of 80.5 points per game during their win streak, which includes a 76-70 victory over the Aces on June 15.

Las Vegas has underwhelmed on the defensive end, but A’ja Wilson leads the league in blocks per game with an average of 2.8. She can slow down Phoenix’s interior attack enough to cash this Under.

👀 Star player prop to watch

Alyssa Thomas double-double ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +100 via DraftKings ($10 pays $10)

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Thanks to several inverted ball screens and spot-up shooters around her, Thomas is averaging 14.6 points, 9.5 assists, and 7.4 rebounds per game in her first season with Phoenix.

The league’s all-time leader in triple-doubles is always a double-double threat, recording one five times during this win streak. You could do worse than a plus-money price on Thomas recording a double-double on Sunday.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.