Mercury vs. Dream Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bets: Aug. 1

The Atlanta Dream (16-11) host the Phoenix Mercury (16-10) tonight, and my Mercury vs. Dream odds and prediction thinks the visitors can get the job done. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ION) at Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Ga. The best sports betting sites list the Mercury as 1.5-point road betting favorites.

Phoenix is third in the league standings and a legitimate WNBA championship odds contender; Atlanta is fifth overall, but I see them as more of a sleeper. My Liberty vs. Sun prediction for another of tonight's WNBA games highlights one of the co-favorites to win it all. 

🔮 Mercury vs. Dream prediction: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury ML (-122 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -1.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 163.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Mercury vs. Dream?

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-122 via DraftKings)

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Phoenix should break out of a mini-slump on Friday after losing four of its last five games, including a 90-79 home loss to Atlanta on July 23. The Mercury are capable of playing much better, as evidenced by their 12-4 start.

This is a buy-low spot on Phoenix.

💰 Mercury vs. Dream prediction & WNBA best bet

🌵 Mercury ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -122 via DraftKings ($10 to win $8.20)

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The value on Phoenix’s moneyline price is too good to pass up. The Mercury are -140 favorites to win at FanDuel, illustrating the discount being offered by DraftKings on a line I’d take at -130 or better.

The Mercury have stumbled lately, which is weird because they are finally healthy and playing their ideal rotation. I’d chalk this up to their star players learning to play together, particularly the fit between the trio of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and Satou Sabally. We have yet to see Phoenix’s full potential.

At the same time, the Dream have spent more time on the road than anyone else in the W these past few weeks. They are back home after playing seven road games in their last eight outings since July 11.

Atlanta needed a late 3-pointer from Naz Hillmon to defeat the Dallas Wings, 88-85, on Wednesday. She played more down the stretch after Brittney Griner was ejected (two technicals), establishing a legitimate Sixth Player of the Year case.

I expect a motivated Mercury team to get the better of an exhausted Dream squad.

👀 Best player prop for Mercury vs. Dream

📈 Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -125 via DraftKings ($10 to win $8)

Alyssa Thomas remains the only threat to Napheesa Collier in the latest MVP odds. She’s averaging 16.4 points per game, which included three straight 20-point efforts after dropping 32 against the Indiana Fever on Wednesday.

This scoring prop is too low, which is why FanDuel has already bumped it up to 14.5.

🏀 Mercury vs. Dream odds  

Live updated WNBA odds from our best sports betting apps.

Mercury vs. Dream Odds analysis

I might be on the visitors, but the majority of the tickets are coming in on the home side. Our WNBA odds show the Dream getting 66% of the wagers, although the spread has moved from an opener of 1.5 points to as high as 3.5 points at our best sportsbooks.

The total is seeing a little more even action, with 57% of the wagers coming in on the Over. That line opened at 161.5, but has been bet up to 165.5 or 166 around the industry as of Friday morning.

❓ WNBA betting FAQs

How do WNBA betting odds work?

WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).

What does betting against the spread mean?

Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.

What is moneyline betting?

Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.

💵 Best WNBA betting sites

Want to bet on Mercury vs. Dream? Here are our best sportsbooks and our best sportsbook promos for the WNBA.

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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