Cavaliers vs. Pacers Prediction Today: Game 3 Odds & Expert Picks

Can the Cleveland Cavaliers get on the scoreboard with a road victory tonight in Game 3 after dropping both games at home to the Indiana Pacers?

Mike Spector

Last updated: May 9, 2025 7:56 AM EDT • 4 min read

Cavaliers vs. Pacers Prediction Today: Game 3 Odds & Expert Picks, May 9 — Pictured: Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton celebrates the game-winning 3-point basket with forward Aaron Nesmith (23) and center Myles Turner (33). Photo by David Richard via Imagn Images.

The Indiana Pacers stole back-to-back games in Cleveland to take a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, now we make our Cavaliers vs. Pacers prediction for tonight's Game 3 as part of our NBA picks.

Cleveland is a 2.5-point and -148 moneyline road favorite heading into Game 3 tonight from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

💰 Cavaliers vs. Pacers expert picks for Game 3

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✅ Against the spread pick: Cavaliers -2 (-112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Cavaliers (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 229.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

🏀 Game 3 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Cavaliers 118, Pacers 114

Since 1997-98, playoff teams are just 3-1,640 when facing a seven-plus-point deficit in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime, according to ESPN research. Shockingly, Indiana owns two of those wins from this postseason, including the come-from-behind victory in Game 2.

The Cavaliers are the first 60-win team to face a 2-0 series deficit before the NBA Finals since 2017. But I expect them to make this a series with a Game 3 triumph and cover, and I'm getting out ahead of potential positive injury news if any of Darius Garland (toe), Evan Mobley (ankle), or De’Andre Hunter (thumb) are declared active.

Indiana ranked 24th in defensive rating during the regular season last year, and it was the fourth-worst playoff team by that metric. Thus, there's a path to another significant day offensively for Cleveland, with Donovan Mitchell leading the way.

Mitchell recorded 48 points and nine assists in Game 2 while scoring or assisting on 61% of Cleveland’s points. And Cleveland can draw on the fact that it once again enjoyed the advantage in turnovers, points in the paint, second-chance points, and the team reached the rim more frequently than Indiana.

I'm banking on some regression from Indiana, which shot 39.3% from 3-point range in Game 2 after averaging 35.8% from beyond the arc during the regular season. Additionally, the Cavaliers aren't likely to shoot under 30% from 3-point range for the third straight game. They shot that poorly just 10 times during the regular season.

With two days off between Games 2 and 3, I'm optimistic the Cavaliers can get one of their three injured players back. I'm taking advantage of the only 2-point spread offered among our best NBA betting sites before the line ticks up further.

✅ Best bet: Cavaliers -2 (-112 via DraftKings)

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📈 Cavaliers vs. Pacers odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

📊 Game 3 betting insights

Latest betting statistics come from BetMGM as of Friday morning.

Despite dropping Games 1 and 2, the betting public still has faith in Cleveland, backing the visitors to cover the spread (-3.5) at a 65% clip ahead of Game 3
The Cavaliers are also receiving a majority (56%) of moneyline action at -140
Bettors are leaning Over 226.5 in a big way (79%)

🪧 Game 3 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Spread: Cavaliers -1.5 (-110) | Pacers +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers -120 | Pacers +100
Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)

🚑 Cavaliers vs. Pacers injury report

Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.

📡 How to watch Cavaliers vs. Pacers live (Game 3)

📅 Friday, May 9
🕗 7:30 p.m. ET
📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
📺 ESPN | 🛜 ESPN+

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”