Pacers vs. Thunder Expert Picks Tonight: NBA Finals Game 1 Predictions, Player Props & Parlay

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder tip off the 2025 NBA Finals tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Our Pacers vs. Thunder expert picks include our best bets for the series opener, including a game prediction and two player prop selections.

🏀 Pacers vs. Thunder prediction & best bet for Game 1

Oklahoma City is locking teams down with its historically great defense in the NBA playoffs. The Thunder are holding opponents to 12-plus points fewer than their regular-season offensive rating, which is on pace to be the best tally in league history. Indiana's offense is great, but it hasn't seen anything like Mark Daigneault's group yet.

The hosts have too many advantages to believe they'll not win this game comfortably, including defense, depth, rebounding, and size. Oklahoma City is 2-0 against the Pacers this season - 29-1 against the Eastern Conference as a whole - winning by an average margin of 13.5 points per game. The Thunder were without Holmgren in both games. 

A full-strength OKC team in front of one of the league's loudest crowds should be able to handle business in Game 1. We'll back the league's best ATS team to cover again, this time at the standard juice offered by our best sports betting sites.

✅ Best bet: Thunder -9.5 (-110 via ESPN BET)

Up To $600 In Bonuses

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⛹️ Best Pacers vs. Thunder player prop for Game 1

While there are many player prop options to choose from in this intriguing matchup, we've opted to back the ultimate wild card. Holmgren has had his fair share of success against Indiana in his young career, despite not playing against the Pacers this season.

Here's why we like Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds (+100 via BetMGM):

"[Holmgren] averaged 10.5 rebounds against the Eastern Conference winners last year, so we expect him to continue his success on the glass. The Pacers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, so one can only imagine they'll struggle on the road against a pair of 7-footers.

Holmgren has gone Over at a 43.75% rate in the playoffs, but he faced two top-five rebounding teams. Indiana is out of its depth here, and Holmgren should have no issue exploiting this issue."

👉 For more analysis, check out our best Pacers vs. Thunder player props.

🚀 Best Pacers vs. Thunder parlay picks for Game 1

Here's what I wrote earlier today when breaking down my best parlay for Game 1:

"Oklahoma City is a massive favorite in this series, trading at odds as short as -650 with our best sports betting apps. The talent gap doesn't seem large enough to justify that spread ... until you begin crunching the numbers."

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points
• Tyrese Haliburton Under 17.5 points
• Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds
• Pascal Siakam Under 6.5 rebounds
• Cason Wallace Under 1.5 steals

Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 34 points per game against Indiana in the last five meetings, whereas Haliburton has historically struggled against Oklahoma City. We've already touched on the rebounding advantage the Thunder have, which explains the Holmgren and Siakam selections. Lastly, we believe Wallace's steals prop is inflated due to his performances while starting against Indiana twice this season.

👉 For more analysis, check out our best Pacers vs. Thunder parlay picks.

🤖 AI pick for Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1

Here is our AI projection for Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals. This was generated using ChatGPT's 4o model backed by "Deep Research" and real-time search.

🔮 Prediction: Thunder 112, Pacers 100

"The Thunder opened the 2025 NBA Finals with a commanding 112-100 win behind a vintage performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who sliced up the Pacers' defense with 34 points on efficient midrange dominance and late-clock shot-making. Chet Holmgren controlled the interior with 13 rebounds and three blocks, anchoring an OKC defense that kept Indiana's pace in check.

Despite a strong playmaking night from Tyrese Haliburton (11 assists), the Pacers struggled to find a rhythm against Oklahoma City’s switching defense and lost the battle in the paint and transition, setting the tone for a series in which adjustments will be key."

👉 For more analysis, including game-by-game predictions and stat projections, check out our Pacers vs. Thunder AI predictions.

💡 More NBA Finals expert picks

• NBA Finals betting preview
• Thunder NBA Finals preview
• Pacers NBA Finals preview
• Pacers vs. Thunder player props
• Pacers vs. Thunder parlay picks
• NBA Finals AI predictions

💵 Best NBA Finals betting sites

Want to bet on the NBA Finals? Check out the best NBA betting sites and best sportsbook promos for Pacers vs. Thunder:

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