Best Thunder vs. Nuggets Player Props: Best Bets & SGP for Game 3
The Oklahoma City Thunder rebounded quickly after a Game 1 loss to the Denver Nuggets, putting up a 43-point beatdown in Game 2. The series shifts venues for Game 3, and our Thunder vs. Nuggets player props don’t anticipate OKC’s top scoring threat letting off the gas.
Tipoff from Ball Arena in Denver is slated for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Our NBA picks for Game 3 dive into whether we expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to continue the recent consistency of his lofty scoring totals, and what kind of presence Nikola Jokic will bring.
⛹️ Best NBA player props for Thunder vs. Nuggets: Game 3
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🔥Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
A season-long concern for betting the point total on Gilgeous-Alexander has been the ample rest he’s often given in the fourth quarter of blowouts. This was the case in Game 2 as the Thunder star only played 30 minutes with Oklahoma City cruising to a 149-106 victory.
But a mark in SGA’s favor is his efficiency (11-for-13 from the field), which was so remarkable in that matchup that he still cleared a 32.5-point line by scoring 34 in the win. That’s the NBA MVP odds favorite's third-straight playoff game clearing this line.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged slightly fewer points per game on the road this season (31.9) than he did at home (33.5). However, his recent efficiency and the collective realization after Game 1 that the Thunder can’t take the Nuggets lightly in this series should put him over the top again in Game 3.
✅ Best odds: -102 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.80)
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🔥 Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 2 was a travesty for just about every facet of Denver’s game, and Jokic was not immune from criticism. After averaging 12.7 rebounds per game this season, Jokic grabbed just eight boards in the Game 2 loss.
We’re looking for Jokic’s rebounding prowess to normalize in Game 3.
Though he has only cleared this line of 13.5 rebounds once during these playoffs, it came in a 22-rebound explosion in Game 1. The Thunder’s high-flying pace has meant more rebounding opportunities for opponents, as Oklahoma City allows 54.1 rebounds per game (third-most in the NBA).
Game 2 was the outlier - with Denver only grabbing 38 rebounds - for what we expect to see on the glass in a more even series moving forward.
It seems many believe Jokic will have a greater presence as a rebounder in this game. As John Ewing of BetMGM notes, the Under on his points prop is getting significant action during the hours before tipoff.
✅ Best odds: -110 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.09)
🔥 Michael Porter Jr. Over 10.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Michael Porter Jr. has been a different shooter in Ball Arena during these NBA playoffs, going 18-for-36 from the field at home (50%) compared to 13-of-43 in road arenas (30.2%). During the season, MPJ averaged slightly more points per game and shot above 40% from 3-point range at home.
His recent volatility as a scorer has suppressed his points prop for Game 3 to 10.5, which is nearly eight points lower than his season average of 18.2 PPG.
Though he’s in the doldrums after struggling on the road in the first two games of the series, the venue shift should benefit Porter Jr., who cleared this line in four out of seven games in the Clippers series.
✅ Best odds: -125 via Caesars ($10 to win $8.00)
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🚀 Best same-game parlay (SGP)
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📡 How to watch Thunder vs. Nuggets live (Game 3)
📅 Friday, May 9
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Ball Arena (Denver)
📺 ESPN | 🛜 ESPN+
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