Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction Today: Game 3 Odds & Expert Picks

The Thunder vs. Nuggets series shifts to Denver tonight ahead of Game 3, which team will take an advantage in the decisive duel?

Philip Wood

Last updated: May 9, 2025 8:21 AM EDT • 4 min read

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction Today: Game 3 Odds & Expert Picks, May 9 — Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jaylin Williams (6) drives as Denver Nuggets forward Zeke Nnaji (22). Photo by Alonzo Adams via Imagn Images.

The Denver Nuggets were dominated by the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2, losing by 43 points, but they now head back home after splitting the road games. Our Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction - part of our top NBA picks - expect the visitors to take a 2-1 series lead tonight from Ball Arena in Denver.

The Thunder are 5-point favorites in tonight's 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) game, and they're getting a moneyline of at least -180 at all of our best NBA betting sites.

💰 Thunder vs. Nuggets expert picks for Game 3

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✅ Against the spread pick: Thunder -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Thunder (-180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 233.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏀 Game 3 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Thunder 125, Nuggets 118

After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 1, the Thunder put together one of the most dominant performances of this NBA postseason in Game 2, leading 45-21 after just the first quarter. They won each of the first three quarters by at least seven en route to a 43-point rout.

While that dominance was unbelievably impressive, I’m staying away from the spread for Friday’s game. You could argue the Thunder have been dominant in both contests, despite the series being tied at one. But the Nuggets are 3-1 at Ball Arena in this postseason, and their only home loss was a narrow three-point defeat.

Therefore, the safer bet is the Over. There were eight Thunder players who ended up scoring in double figures during Game 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped a game-high 34 while shooting an astounding 11-of-13 from the floor.

While the Thunder won’t score 149 again, there’s little doubt they'll tally at least 120. They scored 119 in Game 1, and the club registered at least 122 points in three of its four regular-season games against the Nuggets.

The Nuggets aren’t very good defensively after allowing 116.6 points per game this season. However, they're the league's fourth-highest scoring team, and while the Nuggets only tallied 106 points in Game 2, Denver has topped 120 in three of its six games against the Thunder this season.

This is a really high number from our best sports betting apps. But the Over is the best play of the game due to the style of these two teams.

✅ Best bet: Over 233.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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📈 Thunder vs. Nuggets odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

📊 Game 3 betting insights

Latest betting statistics via BetMGM as of Friday morning.

Oklahoma City (-5.5) is receiving 61% of spread bets after a stellar showing in Game 2
63% of the action is on the Thunder to win outright, despite a heavily juiced price (-220)
67% of bettors expect the action tonight to go Over 232.5 total points

🪧 Game 3 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-115) | Nuggets +4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Thunder -200 | Nuggets +165
Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)

🚑 Thunder vs. Nuggets injury report

Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.

📡 How to watch Thunder vs. Nuggets live (Game 3)

📅 Friday, May 9
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Ball Arena (Denver)
📺 ESPN | 🛜 Fubo, YouTube TV, Sling TV

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Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.