Which March Madness First Four Teams Have Best Final Four Odds Entering NCAA Tournament?

The 2025 NCAA Tournament tips off tonight with the first two First Four games to fill out the March Madness bracket. But do any of these teams have a real shot at a Cinderella run to the Final Four?

We're ranking all eight of the First Four teams by their Final Four odds and offering our best value bet among the group to reach the semifinal in San Antonio.

👉 Need help with your bracket? Check out our March Madness expert bracket and our guide on how to fill out a March Madness bracket.

🏀 Final Four odds for every March Madness team entering First Four

Here's a look at the Final Four odds for all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, including the four teams playing in the First Four games on Wednesday.

👉 Want to bet on the NCAA Tournament? Check out the latest March Madness odds and Final Four odds.

📊 First Four teams ranked by Final Four odds

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, it's become somewhat of an annual tradition for one of the teams playing in the First Four to advance to at least the second round - it's happened in 12 of the last 13 years with five reaching the Sweet 16.

Two of those five teams made it all the way to the final weekend: VCU went from First Four to Final Four in 2011, and UCLA did the same 10 years later. So which teams have the best chance to do that again this year?

👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.  

1️⃣ North Carolina (+5500) ✅

UNC was the last team in the 68-team field, but it's the first choice for bettors looking for a long shot to emerge from this week's play-in games. The Tar Heels' best odds are still shorter than six of the teams that have already locked in a spot in the South.

📊 Best odds: +5500 via DraftKings ($10 to win $550)

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2️⃣ Xavier (+12000)

Xavier is a 3.5-point betting favorite to beat Texas in Wednesday's final play-in game, which is likely why the Musketeers have the slight edge in the futures market, too. The program is still seeking its first Final Four run in school history.

📊 Best odds: +12000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,200)

3️⃣ Texas (+15000)

Texas' 15 losses entering the tournament relegated this team to the First Four, but those defeats came against a top-20 schedule in the toughest conference in the country. The Longhorns take care of the basketball but struggle to generate easy scoring chances.

📊 Best odds: +15000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,500)

5️⃣ American (+50000)

American Univeristy has the shortest odds of the four automatic qualifiers playing in the First Four, and it ranks the highest by KenPom metrics, too. The Eagles are favored by 2.5 points to beat Mount St. Mary's on Wednesday at 6:40 p.m. ET.

📊 Best odds: +50000 via Caesars ($10 to win $5,000)

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6️⃣ Mount St. Mary's (+75000)

Mount St. Mary's was the second-luckiest team in the country by KenPom's ratings, though it earned its spot in the Big Dance with a 14-point win over Iona. The Mountaineers will need a little luck on their side to win as an underdog on Wednesday.

📊 Best odds: +75000 via Caesars ($10 to win $7,500)

7️⃣ Alabama State (+100000) ✅

It's been 20 years since Alabama State earned a spot in the field of 64, having twice lost to another No. 16 seed (2009, 2011) since then. The Hornets are favored to end that spell this week as 3.5-point betting favorites over Saint Francis.

📊 Best odds: +100000 via Caesars ($10 to win $10,000)

4️⃣ San Diego State (+17000) ❌

The Aztecs boast a top-15 defense in the country entering the tournament, but they'll be challenged in the First Four against a battle-tested North Carolina team with a top-25 offense. That's why they have the longest odds of the at-large teams in the play-in.

📊 Best odds: +17000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $1,700)

8️⃣ Saint Francis (+100000) ❌

The worst team in the field by advanced metrics, Saint Francis struggled early in the year but won six straight to earn a trip to Dayton for the First Four. It'll need a miracle to knock off top-seeded Auburn in the first round even if it survives Tuesday's play-in game.

📊 Best odds: +100000 via Caesars ($10 to win $10,000)

🔮 First Four expert picks

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🚀 Best bet to reach the Final Four

Let's be honest: all eight of these teams face a tough path ahead to win five games - one more than the rest of the field - to reach the Final Four in a few weeks.

If one team has the profile to make a Cinderella run, it has to be this year's most controversial First Four squad ... and the most dangerous one, too.

👀 Why North Carolina can reach the Final Four

Sure, UNC was the last team in the field and has been a lightning rod of debate since Sunday's bracket reveal. But the committee chose this team for a reason, and it's not just the name on the front of the jersey.

With two star guards in RJ Davis and Ian Jackson - whom our college basketball expert Rob Paul featured in his March Madness NBA prospects guide - the Tar Heels have a higher ceiling than their No. 11 seed might suggest ... even if their 1-12 record against Quad 1 teams would say otherwise.

Four of those losses came to Auburn and Duke, the top two seeds in this year's tournament, and UNC has won eight of its last 10 games by an average of 17 points. Those lone two losses came to the Blue Devils, but with their rivals sequestered to the East Region, there's an outside chance North Carolina could pull off another inspired run.

👉 Looking for more Final Four sleepers? We broke down our best value bets and long shots in our March Madness Final Four expert picks.  

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💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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