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March Madness Long Shots: Which No. 11 Seed Can Make Deep Run in NCAA Tournament Bracket?

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: March 20, 2025 2:07 AM EDT • 4 min 18 sec read.

March Madness Long Shots: Which No. 11 Seed Can Make Deep Run in NCAA Tournament Bracket?
Pictured: Xavier Musketeers guard Marcus Foster (1) celebrates in the second half against the Texas Longhorns. Photo by Rick Osentoski via Imagn Images.

The curtain has closed on the opening act of March Madness. The Xavier Musketeers defeated the Texas Longhorns to conclude the First Four, clinching the final No. 11 seed in the bracket. Sean Miller's squad is now set up for success heading into the NCAA Tournament proper.

Our March Madness long shots preview focuses on which No. 11 seed(s) can replicate the runs from similarly-seeded schools. History suggests at least one team will find success in the first round, so who will it be?

👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.

🔢 Who are the four No. 11 seeds?

  • South Region: North Carolina Tar Heels
  • East Region: VCU Rams
  • Midwest Region: Xavier Musketeers
  • West Region: Drake Bulldogs

📖 March Madness regional previews: South | East | Midwest | West

🏀 Which 11-seed can make a deep NCAA Tournament run?

North Carolina is the most popular selection to make a deep run after its sensational display in the First Four. The Tar Heels dismantled San Diego State, silencing their doubters. They're now betting favorites over 6-seed Ole Miss in the first round with a 54.55% implied probability of advancing further.

However, we're opting to fade Hubert Davis' men in favor of another 11-seed.

🐏 Why you should fade UNC in your March Madness bracket

North Carolina looked excellent against an Aztecs team that never got out of first gear, but that doesn't mean its abysmal record against quality opposition will suddenly improve. The Tar Heels are 1-12 versus Quad 1 opponents.

Even though that dead horse has been beaten one too many times over the last week, it's reason enough to fade UNC in the first round against the Rebels. Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard is 6-0 in Round of 64 games with Little Rock, Texas Tech, and Texas in his career, so we won't pick against perfection.

All of that being said, a First Four team has reached the second round every season except 2019 since its introduction 2011. That leaves Sean Miller and his comeback kids: the Xavier Musketeers.

👀 Can Xavier make a run to the Final Four?

March Madness Long Shots: Which No. 11 Seed Can Make Deep Run in NCAA Tournament Bracket?
Xavier Musketeers guard Ryan Conwell is embraced by his team after hitting a layup. Photo by Frank Bowen via Imagn Images.

Xavier has the hot hand with a recent sizzling streak seeing it punch a late ticket to the Big Dance. The Musketeers are still trying to find their footing, but when they do the simple things right, they can hold their own - just ask Texas.

We also believe the Big East representatives have the easiest matchup among the 11 seeds.

Xavier's biggest weaknesses are its inconsistency and lack of a defensive paint presence. The Musketeers' first-round opponent, Illinois, isn't strong in either department. The Fighting Illini have epitomized inconsistency this season, and 47% of their shots are from beyond the arc. 

A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!
A custom graphic of our March Tourney Survivor contest with $1,000 cash to the winner!

While high-volume 3-point shooting teams spell disaster for opponents in March, Illinois doesn't connect at an efficient clip. Brad Underwood's boys shoot 31% from deep, among the lowest percentages in the tournament. The only glaring advantage the Fighting Illini have over Xavier is its aggressiveness on the offensive glass.

The Musketeers typically find success when they take care of the basketball. Illinois struggles in the takeaways department, so this could be a match made in heaven for a team that's already gotten its feet wet in the NCAA Tournament.

On top of the on-court advantages, Miller is an excellent tournament coach. He's 21-12 throughout his career in March Madness - compare that to Underwood, who is 7-8.

For all of these reasons, we believe Xavier represents the 11-seeds' best chance of advancing, but how far can the Musketeers make it? A win over Kentucky isn't inconceivable, especially if Lamont Butler isn't healthy. However, it's hard to see Xavier getting past the buzzsaw that is Rick Barnes' Tennessee in the Sweet 16.

Drake (+6.5 vs. Missouri) and VCU (+2.5 vs. BYU) could also play spoiler against power-conference foes in the first round. Both are extremely strong mid-majors with a healthy mix of athleticism, experience, and talent. The Bulldogs and Rams' opposition is the reason we opted to hone in on Xavier, though.

📊 March Madness Cinderella trends

  • 11 seeds went 3-1 in the opening round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament
  • 11 seeds are 9-7 straight-up in the opening round over the last four years
  • 11-seeds (39.1%) narrowly edge out 10-seeds (38.7%) as the lower-seeded team with the second-highest win percentage in the Round of 64 since 1985
  • One or more 11-seed has made the Sweet 16 in eight of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments
  • Six 11 seeds have advanced to the Final Four, with half of those instances occurring since 2018
  • At least one double-digit has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 16 consecutive years and 37 of 39 tournaments since 1985

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.