March Madness Bracket Sleepers, Upsets & Cinderella Picks for Every NCAA Tournament Region
There's nothing better than hitting on a March Madness upset pick or predicting a Cinderella to make the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament.
So we've compiled all of our best March Madness sleepers, upsets, and Cinderella picks for every region ahead of Thursday's first-round games starting at 12:15 p.m. ET.
📖 March Madness regional previews: South | East | Midwest | West
🏀 Best March Madness upsets for the NCAA Tournament first round
👉 Want more upset picks? Check out our best March Madness upset predictions and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🚨 South Region: No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
Everyone is already all over UC San Diego taking down Michigan, so much so that the Wolverines are only a 2.5-point favorite. Even with Dusty May's squad showing off in the Big Ten tournament and beating Maryland with a last-second bucket in the semifinal, this Michigan team has questionable guard play and leans so heavily on its frontcourt combo of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin.
Meanwhile, Olen has been building this UC San Diego program for years and after moving up from Division I in 2020, this is the first season the program was eligible for the NCAA Tournament. So, naturally, the Tritons ran through the Big West with ease to the tune of a 30-4 record this year. I'm all over UCSD as a Sweet 16 Cinderella.
📊 Best odds to win in first round: +125 via bet365 ($10 to win $12.50)
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🚨 East Region: No. 11 VCU over No. 6 BYU
Without many options for lower seeds with a real shot in the first round, VCU jumps out as the obvious choice here. While BYU has had some bright moments in Kevin Young's first season at the helm, the Cougars faithful might have to wait for AJ Dybansta to show up in Provo next season to make a March Madness run.
For as fun of a combination as Richie Saunders and Egor Demin are, BYU has some serious issues on defense that Shulga and Bamisile should be able to expose. Plus, the Rams are top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Another upset to watch is No. 13 seed Akron over No. 4 seed Arizona.
📊 Best odds to win in first round: +143 via Caesars ($10 to win $14.30)
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🚨 West Region: No. 11 Drake over No. 6 Missouri
With Drake being my best Cinderella bet to somehow win the West, the Bulldogs obviously have to be the best first-round upset pick in this region. The job Ben McCollum has done in his first year leading Drake has been incredible, and he's done it with guys he brought with him from Division II.
Drake's three best players - Bennet Stirtz, Daniel Abreu, and Mitch Mascari - came with McCollum from Northwest Missouri State, and they should push a Missouri defense that's one of the worst in the NCAA Tournament. Defensively, Drake's a juggernaut, allowing the fewest PPG in the country (58.4). The contrasting styles of the Bulldogs and Tigers will make this one heck of a matchup.
📊 Best odds to win in first round: +222 via Caesars ($10 to win $22.20)
🚨 Midwest Region: No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Clemson
Led by former LSU head coach Will Wade, McNeese is going to be one of the most picked mid-majors to make a Sweet 16 run. The Cowboys have a suffocating defense and reliable offensive threats in Javohn Garcia, Sincere Parker, and DJ Richards.
Wade's guard-heavy lineup will give up size to Clemson, but the Tigers' lack of speed could be exposed as a result. The Cowboys played Alabama and Mississippi State tough early in the season, so taking on a high-major is nothing new, and McNeese has lost just one game since mid-December.
📊 Best odds to win in first round: +275 via bet365 ($10 to win $27.50)
👠 Best March Madness Cinderella picks to reach the Final Four
👉 Need help with your bracket? Check out our March Madness expert bracket and our guide on how to fill out a March Madness bracket.
👑 South Region: No. 12 UC San Diego
Despite the Wolverines winning the Big Ten tournament, UC San Diego is a popular pick to pull off an upset in the first round. It's an upset I highlighted in my March Madness bracket reactions, and I even have the Tritons upsetting Texas A&M in the second round to reach the Sweet 16.
UC San Diego is one of the highest-ranked mid-majors by KenPom (No. 36), and Eric Olen has a star scorer lead on in Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and two talented guards in Hayden Gray and Tyler McGhie. New Mexico is another Cinderella to watch with Richard Pitino turning the Lobos into a Mountain West power.
📊 Best odds to win the South Region: +5500 via Caesars ($10 to win $550)
👑 East Region: No. 11 VCU
The East might have the worst crop of potential Cinderella teams. Outside of No. 11 seed VCU, and maybe No. 13 seed Akron, I don't see much of a shot at any team seeded worse than No. 5 reaching the Sweet 16.
With that said, I think VCU will take down BYU in the first round and live up to the strong history of No. 11 seeds pulling off upsets. The Rams are one of the highest-ranked mid-majors by KenPom and have two absolute gamers in guards Max Shulga and Joseph Bamisile. Maybe if the stars align, Ryan Odom's VCU team will fit a glass slipper.
But if I'm taking a non-Duke team to win the East, it's No. 3 seed Wisconsin (+1000), even though the Badgers don't qualify as a Cinderella.
📊 Best odds to win the East Region: +4000 via Caesars ($10 to win $400)
👑 West Region: No. 11 UConn
With how deep the West is as a region, there are a few candidates to be Cinderellas and make a push to the Sweet 16. But at the same time, I don't think any program has a shot at a Final Four outside of the top four seeds - they're just far too strong in the West. A few programs that could be Cinderellas are UConn, Colorado State, and Drake.
Although calling the back-to-back defending champs a Cinderella seams strange, the Huskies have a proven track record of being the only non-No. 1/2 seed to win the NCAA Tournament in the last 18 years. But given the history of No. 11 seeds making runs, I'm going with Drake as my Cinderella from the West, especially because the Bulldogs wouldn't have to face Florida until the Elite Eight.
📊 Best odds to win the West Region: +15000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $1,500)
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👑 Midwest Region: No. 8 Gonzaga
Should Gonzaga be considered a Cinderella? Not really, but since the Bulldogs are a No. 8 seed and the only team I think that has a shot at taking down Houston, I'm picking them as my sleeper to win the Midwest.
While it's technically been a down year for Mark Few's Zags, the team is still ranked top 10 by KenPom and won the West Coast Conference tournament - I thought Gonzaga should have earned as high as a No. 5 seed.
With one of the best point guards in the country in Canadian star Ryan Nembhard and a physical scoring prescence in Graham Ike, the Bulldogs are second in the country in PPG (86.6) and provide an interesting contrasting matchup for Houston.
📊 Best odds to win the Midwest Region: +950 via DraftKings ($10 to win $95)
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👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.
🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
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💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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