Best March Madness Upset Predictions Today: Which Underdogs Should You Bet Friday?
Though March Madness got off to a slightly quieter start than normal on Thursday, there were still a handful of upsets and near-upsets (what was UC San Diego doing on that last possession?) that injected the usual Cinderella vibes into the NCAA Tournament.
Yesterday, we hit on both Drake and McNeese, while our best March Madness upset picks today focus primarily on underdogs from more well-known conferences with Day 2 of the NCAA Tournament featuring far fewer teams with Cinderella potential.
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness first-round expert picks as part of our March Madness predictions.
💰 Ranking today's March Madness underdogs by best moneyline odds
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| Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) | Best ML odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico (10) | vs. Marquette (7) | +152 via Caesars |
| Baylor (9) | vs. Mississippi State (8) | +112 via FanDuel |
| Ole Miss (6) | vs. North Carolina (11) | +114 via BetRivers |
| Memphis (5) | vs. Colorado State (12) | +104 via FanDuel |
| Xavier (11) | vs. Illinois (6) | +136 via DraftKings |
| Vanderbilt (10) | vs. Saint Mary's (7) | +165 via bet365 |
| Liberty (12) | vs. Oregon (5) | +250 via bet365 |
| Oklahoma (9) | vs. UConn (8) | +195 via bet365 |
| Troy (14) | vs. Kentucky (3) | +525 via bet365 |
| Lipscomb (14) | vs. Iowa State (14) | +850 via bet365 |
| Akron (13) | vs. Arizona (4) | +760 via FanDuel |
| Grand Canyon (13) | vs. Maryland (4) | +430 via FanDuel |
| Bryant (15) | vs. Michigan State (2) | +1200 via DraftKings |
| Robert Morris (15) | vs. Alabama (2) | +2000 via FanDuel |
| Norfolk State (16) | vs. Florida (1) | +4000 via FanDuel |
| Mount St. Mary's (16) | vs. Duke (1) | +7000 via FanDuel |
👉 Want to cash your upset picks? Check out the most common March Madness upsets by seed and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🎯 Our best March Madness upset picks & predictions today
The upset options for Day 2 of March Madness are a little less awe-inspiring after yesterday's batch of games featured so many talented programs from one-bid leagues. Three of today's four top upset picks are teams from multi-bid leagues, and two of the four are even higher-seeded teams that just happen to be underdogs against squads on hot streaks.
🚨 No. 10 New Mexico over No. 7 Marquette
📅 Tipoff: 7:25 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +152 via Caesars
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Today's upset options are slim pickings, with New Mexico being the only program with moneyline odds of longer than +150 that I actually expect to pull off the win. Richard Pitino's Lobos have one of the best defenses in the country - 19th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom - and should be able to do enough to slow down Marquette's Kam Jones.
The Golden Eagles have been a fairly sporadic team at times this season and are just 14-18-1 ATS, which includes losing four times as a favorite in their last 16 games. Although Shaka Smart's defense is solid, Marquette has its own version of Jones in dynamic guard Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG, 6.4 APG), the Mountain West Player of the Year.
With Dent providing the offensive explosion and big man Nelly Junior Joseph anchoring the defense, the Lobos can pull out a win in a game that should be among the best of Friday's slate.
🚨 No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Mississippi State
📅 Tipoff: 12:15 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +112 via FanDuel
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While Baylor has taken a step back in recent years under Scott Drew, this is still one of the most consistent programs in the country. The Bears have won at least one game in the NCAA Tournament for four straight years and take on a Mississippi State team that's ranked 32nd on KenPom - Baylor is 29th.
In a matchup that looks like it will be a perfect way to start Day 2 of the tournament for viewers who love offense, both teams deploy electric guards. Baylor has one of the top March Madness NBA draft prospects in VJ Edgecombe while Mississippi State has undersized All-SEC guard Josh Hubbard.
This game is likely to come down to which guard can put the offense on their back, and I lean toward Edgecombe - especially with the Bears sitting 13th in O-rate, per EvanMiya. It helps his cause that the Bears also have a double-double machine in Norchad Omier.
🚨 No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 11 North Carolina
📅 Tipoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +114 via BetRivers
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No team in the tournament has been questioned more than North Carolina after the Tar Heels went 1-12 against Quad 1 teams and still got into March Madness. It didn't help the optics that AD Bubba Cunningham also happens to be the selection committee chair and received a bonus for the Tar Heels getting in.
However, North Carolina silenced doubters to some degree after stomping San Diego State in the First Four ... and now Ole Miss is an underdog to them? The Aztecs were not a good team and probably shouldn't have gotten into the tournament. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has eight Quad 1 wins this season and ranks top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
By no means am I a big believer in this Rebels team, but there's no way it should be an underdog after it beat Tennessee and played Auburn so tough. Sure RJ Davis is a Wooden Award odds-caliber player on a good night, but I think UNC's win over SDSU is being way overrated.
🚨 No. 5 Memphis over No. 12 Colorado State
📅 Tipoff: 2 p.m. ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +104 via FanDuel
Another lower seed that's favored over the higher seed is Colorado State after its magnificent run through the Mountain West tournament. While the Rams looked strong behind the play of Nique Clifford, should they really be just the third No. 12 seed to be favored against a No. 5 seed since 2005?
Being down Tyrese Hunter hurts Penny Hardaway's team, but it still has one of the country's top scorers in PJ Haggerty. Haggerty averaged 27.6 PPG in the AAC tournament and should give a Rams defense that ranks outside the top 50 in adjusted efficiency some problems.
Clifford and Haggerty provide maybe the best scoring matchup of the day, but the Tigers have the better defense (41st in adjusted efficiency), are the more efficient 3-point shooting team, and a better rebound team.
👉 Can't get enough upsets? Check out our detailed history of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time.
🚀 Best March Madness upset moneyline parlay today
If you combine all four of my favorite upset picks today into a moneyline parlay, you can turn a winning $10 bet into a $206.30 profit at FanDuel. Be sure to use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay during the NCAA Tournament:
🚨 No. 10 New Mexico (+150) over No. 7 Marquette
🚨 No. 9 Baylor (+110) over No. 8 Mississippi State
🚨 No. 6 Ole Miss (+102) over No. 11 North Carolina
🚨 No. 5 Memphis (+104) over No. 12 Colorado State
📊 Best SGP odds: +2063 via FanDuel ($10 to win $206.30)
👉 Want more parlay bets? Check out our best March Madness first-round upsets as well as our best March Madness parlay picks for Round 1.
🏀 Best March Madness odds, predictions & expert picks today
Here are our best March Madness picks for Friday's first-round action:
- March Madness odds & schedule today
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🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
- Mississippi State vs. Baylor prediction
- Alabama vs. Robert Morris prediction
- Iowa State vs. Lipscomb prediction
- Memphis vs. Colorado State prediction
- Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's prediction
- Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt prediction
- Ole Miss vs. North Carolina prediction
- Maryland vs. Grand Canyon prediction
- Florida vs. Norfolk State prediction
- Kentucky vs. Troy prediction
- Marquette vs. New Mexico prediction
- Arizona vs. Akron prediction
- UConn vs. Oklahoma prediction
- Illinois vs. Xavier prediction
- Michigan State vs. Bryant prediction
- Oregon vs. Liberty prediction
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