March Madness Upset Predictions & Picks
The Madness has arrived! Our team of betting experts are delivering March Madness upset predictions and picks throughout the tournament.
In the first round of action, we nailed New Mexico over Marquette, Arkansas over Kansas, and Colorado State over Memphis. Below are some upset picks to consider for the Sweet 16.
March Madness upset predictions and picks
Here is a look at some upset picks to consider when betting on the tournament.
| Underdog | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Arkansas (10) over Texas Tech (7) | +205 via DraftKings |
| Ole Miss (6) over Michigan State (2) | +140 via FanDuel |
👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.
Our favorite March Madness upset picks
Texas Tech (3) vs. Arkansas (10)
Best odds: +205 via DraftKings
Picking upsets is much easier in the first and even second round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. At this stage of things, all teams are in the categories of “elite,” “red hot,” or both.
Arkansas falls under the "red hot" category as it knocked off No. 7 seed Kansas and then KO’d No. 2 seed St. John’s. Even in the couple of weeks leading up to March Madness, John Calipari’s squad was showing signs it could be a true contender. The Razorbacks beat 15th-ranked Missouri and then 25th-ranked Mississippi State down the stretch.
Texas Tech struggled this year when it went up against teams that were elite or on a hot streak. The Red Raiders were just 1-4 against teams that were, at the time, in the top 25. Texas Tech also had a relatively easy path to the Sweet 16, beating No. 14 seed UNC Wilmington (82-72) and No. 11 seed Drake (77-64).
Picking the Arkansas spread (+5.5) or even the moneyline (+215) in this Sweet 16 showdown is certainly worth considering.
Michigan State (2) vs. Ole Miss (6)
Best odds: +140 via FanDuel
Ole Miss has already proven it's not your run-of-the-mill No. 6 seed. The Rebels beat North Carolina, 71-64, in the first round of March Madness, and then topped No. 3 seed Iowa State, 91-78, in the second round.
Chris Beard has his team playing its best basketball of the season, particularly on the defensive end. In the SEC Tournament, Ole Miss lost to Auburn, but held the Tigers to just 57 points. The Rebels have a defense that can make opposing offenses disappear for long stretches. During the first half of its 91-78 win over Iowa State, its defense gave up just 2 points over a 7-minute, 43-second stretch.
Ole Miss also has another key ingredient that many Final Four teams have possessed in the past: it is a senior-laden group. Key contributors Sean Pedulla, Jaemyn Brakefield, Matthew Murrell and Davon Barnes, are all seniors.
I like Ole Miss to give Michigan State a good scare, if not win the game outright.
What is a March Madness upset?
A March Madness upset occurs when a lower-seeded or perceived underdog team defeats a higher-seeded or favored opponent in the NCAA Tournament.
Upsets are a hallmark of March Madness, adding unpredictability and excitement to the tournament as lower-ranked teams showcase their competitive prowess by defeating higher-ranked opponents. These upsets often captivate fans and garner widespread attention, as they defy odds and showcase the tournament's inherent unpredictability.
Upsets can occur at any stage of the tournament, from the early rounds to the later rounds, and have become a defining feature of March Madness lore.
What is a March Madness underdog?
March Madness underdogs typically refer to lower-seeded or perceived weaker teams in the NCAA Tournament. These underdog teams are often seeded lower than their opponents and are considered less likely to win according to tournament predictions and seeding brackets.
March Madness underdogs often face higher-seeded opponents in the early rounds of the tournament and are seen as challengers to upset the favorites. Upsets by March Madness underdogs are a common occurrence and are celebrated as highlights of the tournament, showcasing the competitive spirit and unpredictability that define March Madness.
Betting underdogs will often be priced with even- or plus-money odds (+100 or better), meaning a $100 bet would return a profit of $100 or better with an upset victory.
History of 12 vs. 5 seed upsets in March Madness
Few March Madness upset predictions are as popular as the 12 vs. 5 first-round matchup, and many people aim to include at least one of these upsets in their annual March Madness bracket predictions.
A 12-seed has upset a 5-seed 55 times since the NCAA Tournament format expanded in 1985. The higher seed owns a 101-55 head-to-head record in these 5-12 matchups in that time.
We didn't see at least one 12-seed upset a 5-seed in only six of the last 39, and we got two in both 2024 and 2025. Three 12-seeds pulled the upset during the 2019, 2014, and 2013 tournaments.
Recent 12 vs. 5 upsets
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | McNeese def. Clemson | 69-67 |
| 2025 | Colorado State def. Memphis | 78-70 |
| 2024 | James Madison def. Wisconsin | 72-61 |
| 2024 | Grand Canyon def. Saint Mary's | 75-66 |
| 2022 | New Mexico def. UConn | 70-63 |
| 2022 | Richmond def. Iowa | 67-63 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75 (OT) |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
March Madness betting odds pages
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