Saint Francis vs. Alabama State Prediction, Odds & Preview: Tonight's NCAA Tournament First Four Picks

Tonight's first First Four matchup is a battle of No. 16 seeds between Saint Francis (16-17) and Alabama State (19-15) at 6:40 p.m. ET (truTV) at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, as the NCAA Tournament officially begins. 

Our Saint Francis vs. Alabama State prediction, odds, and preview help project which team will face No. 1 Auburn on Thursday in the South Region as one of these teams will join the March Madness bracket. See Rob Paul's full South Region preview.

Alabama State is a 4-point betting favorite, but there might be value in Saint Francis as an underdog as part of our March Madness predictions.

🏀 Saint Francis vs. Alabama State prediction & picks for Tuesday: First Four

Here are my best Saint Francis vs. Alabama State predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Saint Francis +4 (-105 via bet365) vs. Alabama State ⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: TJ Madlock Under 15.5 points (-133 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Alabama State 72, Saint Francis 70 (+15000 via DraftKings)

👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.

🏆 Best Saint Francis vs. Alabama State pick, player prop bet & score prediction

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Saint Francis to cover the spread: +4 ⭐⭐

This would be a three-star pick if you took advantage of Fanatics’ 4.5-point spread, but the -105 on +4 at bet365 is more valuable than the -115 for the same spread at BetMGM.

Most projections show slight value on the underdog. KenPom projects a 72-70 win for Alabama State, while EvanMiya favors the Hornets by 3.4 points.

The Red Flash enter this game with plenty of momentum, winning six in a row (three in overtime). They can keep this game within a possession.

📊 Best odds: -105 via bet365 ($10 to win $9.52)

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🔥 TJ Madlock Under 15.5 points  ⭐⭐⭐

TJ Madlock’s scoring prop is as low as 14.5, but it’s worth paying the -133 price for Under 15.5 points. The Alabama State guard averages 12.6 points per game, ranking third on the team.

Madlock didn’t clear this prop in three Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament games. He averaged 10.3 points on 10.6 field-goal attempts per game during the conference tourney.

I like this Under as long as the points prop trades at 15.5.

📊 Best odds: -133 via Caesars ($10 to win $7.52)

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🎯 Score prediction: Alabama State 72, Saint Francis 70

I’ll side with KenPom’s score projection, banking on the Red Flash to cover the 4-point spread in a losing effort. This will be Saint Francis’ second trip to the NCAA Tournament after losing to No. 2 Arizona in 1991.

📊 Best odds: +15000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,500)

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🤖 Saint Francis vs. Alabama State AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Higher Seed vs. Lower Seed. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Alabama State 72, Saint Francis 68.

🖥️ AI score prediction: Alabama State 72, Saint Francis 68

• The matchup between Saint Francis guard Riley Parker (13.4 PPG) and Alabama State’s Amarr Knox (14.3 PPG) could decide the game
• Alabama State ranks much better in turnover margin, averaging just 8.7 turnovers per game compared to Saint Francis’ 12.2
• If Alabama State can force Saint Francis into a half-court game and capitalize on fast-break chances off turnovers, that could give the Hornets a decisive edge

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Saint Francis covering the spread (+4.5) and a total of Over 138.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live Saint Francis vs. Alabama State odds

Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.

🔢 Saint Francis vs. Alabama State opening odds

• Spread: Saint Francis +3.5 (-110) | Alabama State 3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Saint Francis +150 | Alabam State (-185)
• Over/Under: Over 141.5 (-110) | Under 141.5 (-110)

📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.

Saint Francis vs. Alabama State betting action

Saint Francis vs. Alabama State betting action reported by BetMGM's John Ewing.

• Opening spread: Alabama State -3.5
• Latest spread: No movement
• Betting splits: 53% of bets, 58% of money on Alabama State

• Opening total: 141.5
• Latest total: 138.5
• Betting splits: 60% of bets, 71% of money on Under

• Opening moneyline: Saint Francis +135
• Latest moneyline: Saint Francis +145
• Betting splits: 70% of bets, 55% of money on Saint Francis

🔮 First Four expert picks

• Saint Francis vs. Alabama State prediction
• North Carolina vs. San Diego State prediction
• March Madness picks and predictions: Which First Four teams have best odds to reach second round?
• Which March Madness First Four teams have best Final Four odds?
• March Madness first-round predictions

📺 How to watch Saint Francis vs. Alabama State: NCAA Tournament First Four

📅 Date: Tuesday, March 18
🕗 Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
📍 Location: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
📺 TV: truTV
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live

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