March Madness Bracket Picks & Predictions: Which First Four Teams Have Best Odds to Reach Second Round?

The NCAA Tournament expanded from 64 teams to 68 by implementing the First Four as part of March Madness 14 years ago. 

Since then, a First Four team has reached the second round of March Madness in every season except for 2019, so which First Four teams have the best odds to reach the second round this year?

The First Four has even proven to give some teams momentum to push past the second round with five programs reaching the Sweet 16, and VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021) pushing all the way to the Final Four.

👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.  

Which First Four teams have the best odds to reach the second round?

🐏 North Carolina

• Record: 22-13
• KenPom rating: 33rd
• Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 22nd
• Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 53rd

No team has more people upset about them earning an NCAA Tournament bid than North Carolina. And while Tar Heels athletic director Bubba Cunningham being the selection committee chair and earning a bonus for UNC making the tournament certainly seems like a major issue, that's a problem for another day.

Obviously, the Tar Heels had an uninspiring season going just 1-12 against Quad 1 opponents. As a result, RJ Davis' Wooden Award odds evaporated as the program lost to teams like Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, and Florida to start the year.

However, this is still the best First Four team on paper because Davis is one of the most prolific scorers in the country - he's top 40 in OBPR, per EvanMiya. And Hubert Davis' team has pieces around him.

Ian Jackson is among the March Madness NBA draft prospects, Elliot Cadeau is a talented passer, and Ven-Allen Lubin has become key to the team down the stretch. If UNC beats San Diego State in the First Four, it also gets to play Ole Miss in the first round.

The Rebels are ranked just 26th by KenPom and have struggled as of late, going 7-9 since mid-January. The Tar Heels are in the best shape to reach the second round among First Four teams, and our North Carolina vs. San Diego State prediction projects them to beat the Aztecs.

📊 Best odds to reach Sweet 16: +610 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $61)

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⚔️ Xavier

• Record: 21-11
• KenPom rating: 43rd
• Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 52nd
• Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 44th

If you count the First Four games as part of the first round of March Madness, Xavier vs. Texas could be among the best games of the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Like UNC, the Musketeers had just one Quad 1 win this season (and nine losses), but Sean Miller's team nearly upset Marquette in the Big East tournament.

Xavier also managed to close the regular season by winning seven straight Big East games, including blowing out No. 9 seed Creighton by 22 points - they also beat Marquette and UConn at various points in the season. Even in their losses, the Musketeers had strong moments, losing in overtime on the road against UConn, losing to Marquette by two, and taking St. John's to OT.

This is a tough team that has two reliable scorers in Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell, both of whom average more than 16 PPG. That inside-outside combo should give an inconsistent Texas defense issues.

If Xavier can beat the Longhorns, it could also potentially take down Illinois in the first round. The Illini have been disappointing late in the season with four double-digit losses in their last eight games. The winner of Xavier vs. Texas should give Illinois a heck of a first-round game.

📊 Best odds to reach Sweet 16: +960 via FanDuel ($10 to win $96)

🤘 Texas

• Record: 19-15
• KenPom rating: 44th
• Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 37th
• Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 56th

A few weeks ago it looked like there was no way Texas would make the NCAA Tournament. Rodney Terry's team was getting demolished by the vaunted SEC and even closed the regular season by going 2-7.

Then, Texas came alive in the SEC tournament by beating a quality Vanderbilt team and upsetting Texas A&M in double OT before giving Tennessee a decent fight in the quarterfinals. And thanks to playing such a devastating conference schedule, the Longhorns still ended up with seven Quad 1 wins this season ... that's more than No. 2 seed St. John's and as many as No. 4 seed Purdue.

The Longhorns are tested and they have a secret weapon in guard Tre Johnson. A top 10 recruit, Johnson is expected to be a lottery pick in the NBA draft after leading the SEC in PPG this season (19.8) and shooting 39.2% from behind the arc.

If Johnson can get hot and Arthur Kaluma can dominate the paint, Texas could beat Xavier and even take down Illinois to make the second round. However, the Longhorns winning could depend on just how healthy Tramon Mark really is after getting banged up against the Volunteers.

📊 Best odds to reach Sweet 16: +1300 via FanDuel ($10 to win $130)

🛡️ San Diego State ❌

• Record: 21-9
• KenPom rating: 46th
• Adjusted offensive efficiency rating: 111th
• Adjusted defensive efficiency rating: 13th

Another team that didn't move the needle all that much when it came to playing Quad 1 teams (3-6), San Diego State's defense is just as good as always under Brian Dutcher. But the offense is even tougher to watch than usual, even with an NBA prospect in Miles Byrd.

Despite upsetting Houston in overtime early in the season, the Aztecs kind of fell apart in the second half of the year. They got trounced by New Mexico, lost to Utah State twice, dropped a game against Colorado State, and lost to a middling UNLV team before falling to Boise State in the Mountain West tournament.

While I do think the SDSU defense could cause issues for Davis and the Tar Heels, this is the First Four team I have the least confidence in reaching the second round, aside from the No. 16 seeds. 

Even if they do upset North Carolina, they just don't have the firepower to beat Ole Miss in the first round, especially with the depth Chris Beard's Rebels have - six different players are scoring in the double digits for them vs. just two for the Aztecs.

📊 Best odds to reach Sweet 16: +2000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $200)

🏀 First Four schedule: Wednesday

🦅 Wednesday: No. 16 Mount St. Mary's vs. No. 16 American odds, 6:40 p.m. ET

• When: Wednesday, March 19 | 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
• How to watch: truTV

⚔️ Wednesday: No. 11 Xavier vs. No. 11 Texas odds, 9:10 p.m. ET

• When: Wednesday, March 19 | 9:10 p.m. ET
• Where: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
• How to watch: truTV

🔮 First Four expert picks

• Mount St. Mary's vs. American prediction
• Xavier vs. Texas prediction
• March Madness picks and predictions: Which First Four teams have best odds to reach second round?
• Which March Madness First Four teams have best Final Four odds?
• March Madness first-round predictions

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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