Shedeur Sanders vs. Dillon Gabriel: Will Either Rookie Be Browns Starting QB?
There's never been so much publicity around a Day 3 pick at quarterback before, and there certainly hasn't been a rookie QB picked outside the top 100 that so many people are convinced will start, but not many passers enter the NFL with as much attention as Shedeur Sanders.
Will the Cleveland Browns actually start their fifth-round pick at QB over a passer they opted to select 50 picks prior ... the Shedeur Sanders vs. Dillon Gabriel media circus is just getting started for head coach Kevin Stefanski, so which rookie has a better shot to start Week 1?
🐶 Shedeur Sanders vs. Dillon Gabriel: Who will start for the Browns in Week 1?
QB to take first snap for Cleveland Browns in Week 1 odds via DraftKings.
| Quarterback | Odds | Profit on $10 bet |
|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | +130 | $13 |
| Joe Flacco | +160 | $16 |
| Shedeur Sanders | +300 | $30 |
| Dillon Gabriel | +1000 | $100 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2000 | $200 |
The market focused on who will start for the Browns in Week 1 has already had some fairly significant movement, with veteran Joe Flacco seeing his odds cut from +300 to +160 at our best sports betting sites. Despite being 40 years old, the former Super Bowl MVP is the most logical player to take the first Week 1 snap for this Browns team.
However, starting him is shortsighted, considering the Browns are unlikely to even compete for a wild-card spot in the loaded AFC North. And there's absolutely no reason to consider starting Kenny Pickett, who probably has a lower floor than both rookies and nowhere near the ceiling of even a frail and ageing Flacco.
That's why there's a chance either Sanders or Gabriel could start Week 1, and I think both have reasonable paths to doing so if general manager Andrew Berry wants to see what he has in his rookies. The other side of that approach is that the Browns could limp to one of the worst records in the league and have their choice of a top QB by the 2026 NFL draft odds by throwing their rookies into the fire.
What the Browns do could be tied to the job security that Stefanski and Berry feel they have under owner Jimmy Haslam, because the smartest choice is to start one of the rookies, the dumbest choice is to start an already proven bust in Pickett, and the choice that gets you stuck in purgatory is Flacco.
🎞️ Tale of the college tape: Shedeur Sanders vs. Dillon Gabriel
| Final collegiate season stats | Shedeur Sanders (rank nationally) | Dillon Gabriel (rank nationally) |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 4,134 (4th) | 3,857 (8th) |
| Total TDs | 41 (5th) | 37 (8th) |
| Interceptions | 10 (20th) | 6 (39th) |
| Completion percentage | 74% (1st) | 72.9% (3rd) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.7 (11th) | 8.6 (12th) |
| QBR | 78.2 (16th) | 86.5 (2nd) |
| EPA | 82.8 (4th) | 89.7 (3rd) |
| Big-time throws | 26 (7th) | 15 (56th) |
| Turnover-worthy plays | 8 (119th) | 8 (119th) |
| Adjusted completion rate | 81.8% (3rd) | 81.9% (2nd) |
| Pressures to sack rate | 20.1% (89th) | 13.9% (34th) |
| 10-plus-yard runs | 12 (67th among QBs) | 9 (90th among QBs) |
| Missed tackles forced | 10 (79th among QBs) | 14 (58th among QBs) |
| First down runs | 25 (53rd among QBs) | 22 (67th among QBs) |
It's hard to get a good feel about this Browns rookie QB battle because on one hand, they took Gabriel with a top 100 pick and seemed to almost reluctantly take Sanders. And given Haslam's history of meddling when it comes to quarterbacks, it makes you wonder if he told Stefanski and Berry that they have to take Sanders.
On the other hand, for as statistically dominant as Gabriel was during his six-year collegiate career for UCF, Oklahoma, and Oregon, it's hard to project him as anything more than a steady long-term backup based on the tape.
The importance of height has shifted over the last decade, but Gabriel is just 5-foot-11 1/8, putting him in the third percentile among QBs who have been invited to the NFL Scouting Combine, per MockDraftable. That lack of size is noticeable on tape, with him sometimes needing to drift in the pocket to see passing lanes.
More importantly, his arm strength is a major question. While he can put some decent velocity on it in the quick game, the ball can die on him and flutter on intermediate and deep throws, especially outside the hashmarks. He's not a good enough anticipatory thrower to get away with the lack of physical traits he possesses.
With that said, Gabriel has major poise when it comes to keeping his eyes downfield and navigating muddy pockets. He also has a smooth throwing stroke to go with the footwork needed to excel in an NFL offense and enough touch/accuracy as a passer to survive as a spot starter.
❓ Is Sanders actually better than Gabriel?
At the same time, it doesn't take long to see that Sanders has far more talent than Gabriel. Does he have first-round tape? Not by my eyes, or by the NFL's either, as it turns out. Purely based on the film, he was a top-four QB in this class, and first-round pick Jaxson Dart certainly shouldn't have been taken 119 spots before him based on their skill sets.
Sanders is a mechanically sound QB, which helps him stay accurate in the short and intermediate passing game. He understands the importance of throwing with anticipation and you can see he has a good feel for it. Which makes sense given he doesn't have anything more than an average arm, so to become as productive as he did, it took doing the little things right.
Just like Gabriel, he thrives in the quick game and with RPOs, and rarely puts the ball in harm's way. His big plus as a passer is his decision-making; he stays within his means and doesn't often try to take more than what is given. He plays with the mentality of, you can't go broke taking a profit.
And while Sanders has to get rid of the ball quicker at times, and understand that he doesn't have the athletic traits to extend plays like some of the best QBs in the NFL, he does have enough mobility to maneuver the pocket with his subtle movements. Sanders also isn't afraid to stand tall in the pocket and take a hit to deliver a pass, he's tough under pressure.
But in what world does a team use a Day 2 pick on a QB when they actually have a higher grade on the passer they take two rounds later? This might be the rare occurrence where that's happened, just given the obvious media attention that comes with selecting Sanders (and, by association, his father).
Still, the Browns coaching staff and front office clearly wanted Gabriel over Sanders, regardless of whether they had a higher grade on the Colorado star. So while he might be an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender, Sanders is not a player anyone should have high expectations for this season.
There's a reason we're all asking: Is Shedeur Sanders the biggest NFL draft slide of all time? But maybe, just maybe, he was never as good as the major media outlets seemed to imply, and even if he has more talent than Gabriel, that might not be enough for him to start.
🎯 Shedeur Sanders vs. Dillon Gabriel: Best bet to start
Until we get closer to the season, and see these rookies in preseason, I'll strongly believe Stefanski plans on marching the corpse of Flacco out there to be his starting QB in Week 1. But if I had to bet on one of the rookies, it would be Gabriel without question.
Not only does he have a far more reasonable price across our best sports betting apps, but the Browns' decision makers selected him first for a reason, and with a top 100 pick no less. It seems to me they believe he's going to be part of this team as a competent backup for a few years and a player who's going to add a lot in the QB room.
That's no surprise to anyone who's heard about Gabriel's intangibles. By all accounts, he's a psycho competitor who's beloved by his teammates and understands the importance of uniting the locker room. He's also as experienced a rookie as you can get, with a QB record 63 FBS starts to go along with over 18,000 collegiate passing yards and 189 total touchdowns.
This Browns team also isn't very good, so why throw Sanders into the mix sooner than they have to if they truly believe he can develop into an Andy Dalton/Teddy Bridgewater-type QB? That's what Gabriel is for at this point: he's their Taylor Heinicke.
Gabriel turns 25 as a rookie and has been praised for his intensity, which could help him get on the field sooner, too. Shedeur Sanders owns the second-shortest NFL MVP odds among rookies and very well could start more games than Gabriel, but I'd bet on the Heisman finalist from Oregon hitting the field long before Sanders.
📊 Best bet to start Week 1: Dillon Gabriel (+1000 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 9.09%
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