New Pope Prediction History: Cardinal Robert Prevost Elected as Massive Long Shot
Cardinal Robert Prevost, of Chicago, was elected by a vote of 133 cardinals as the 267th pontiff of the Catholic church on Thursday and will now be known as Pope Leo XIV. We look back at the new pope prediction history, with Cardinal Pietro Parolin long being the favorite prior to Prevost's election
It took just over 24 hours for white smoke to emerge from the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City to signal a new pope had been elected by the 133 eligible voting cardinals in the conclave. The decision was reached via a two-thirds majority. Prevost - who chose Pope Leo XIV as his papal name - follows Pope Francis as leader of the Catholic church.
Prevost had a chance of 2% of being elected by the new pope odds on Thursday morning, according to prediction trading market Kalshi.
🕊️ New pope prediction history
Here is a snapshot of the prediction history for the new pope from Kalshi shortly after white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel and before Cardinal Prevost was revealed.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin opened as the favorite in the prediction market following the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, and he held firmly to the status through the white smoke being released from the Sistine Chapel.
Kalshi continued to take trades on the new pope prediction - upward of $2,000 and exceeding $10 million in total - before Prevost was revealed as the chosen candidate early Thursday afternoon.
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📊 Prediction market misses on Cardinal Prevost as new pope
As seen above, Kalshi's prediction trading market strongly favored Cardinal Parolin through the white smoke emerging from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday. It was temporarily a three-man race - also featuring Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi - before Cardinal Prevost was unveiled at St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City.
Similarly, "Leo" had a 9% chance via Kalshi of being the new pope's papal name as of Thursday morning. "John Paul" and "John" had been among the other favorites to be the new pope's chosen name as of Thursday morning.
Where the market was right was with the quick decision via the cardinals' vote. Kalshi's market for when the next pope will be chosen - as well as our AI prediction - favored a decision before the week's end, with Friday, May 9 having a 56% chance as of Tuesday morning.
Pope Leo XIV was elected on just the second day of the conclave.
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