New Pope Betting Odds: American Robert Prevost Elected as Next Pope

It's official: Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost has been elected as the new pope after earning a two-thirds majority vote by the 133 cardinals at the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City.

Prevost, who will assume the papal name of Pope Leo XIV, was a massive long shot to make history as the first-ever American pope. He wasn't listed as a betting option at Sports Interaction, where Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle were the clear betting favorites entering Thursday.

🔢 New pope odds before Prevost's election

Here were the odds for who will be named the next pope via Sports Interaction in Ontario as of Thursday, May 8, before Prevost was elected as the next pope.

• Pietro Parolin (+250)
• Luis Antonio Tagle (+325)
• Any other not listed (+350)
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+650)
• Matteo Zuppi (+700)
• Peter Turkson (+1000)
• Peter Erdo (+1000)
• Jean-Marc Aveline (+1800)
• Robert Sarah (+2000)
• Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (+2000)
• Raymond Leo Burke (+4000)
• Timothy Radcliffe (+5000)
• Kevin Farrell (+5000)
• Anders Arborelius (+6600)

🗳️ How is the new pope chosen?

A new pope is chosen through a centuries-old process called a papal conclave, which takes place after the death or resignation of the current pope. The conclave met in early May to select Prevost as the 267th pope.

To help you know how to bet on the next pope, here's a breakdown of how it works:

1. Vacancy of the papacy

• The process began when the papacy became vacant following Pope Francis' death

2. Conclave of cardinals

• The College of Cardinals - the body of senior church officials - gathers in Rome
• Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. As of now, that’s usually around 120 cardinals

3. Secrecy and isolation

• The conclave takes place in the Sistine Chapel. Cardinals are sequestered from the outside world - no phones, media, or contact allowed
• They take an oath of secrecy, and the entire process is highly confidential

4. Voting

• Voting occurs in rounds. Each cardinal writes down the name of one man they believe should be pope (he must be male and Catholic - usually a cardinal, but technically any Catholic man is eligible)
• A candidate needs a two-thirds majority to be elected pope
• After each round, the ballots are burned:
• If no pope is chosen, black smoke appears from the chapel’s chimney
• If a new pope is elected, white smoke signals success

5. Acceptance and announcement

• The elected cardinal is asked: “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” If he says yes, he chooses a papal name
• The senior cardinal deacon then steps onto the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica and announces: “Habemus Papam” (We have a pope)

6. The new pope appears

• The new pope steps out and gives his first blessing, known as Urbi et Orbi ("to the city and the world")

📰 Latest conclave news

Here is the latest conclave news as of Thursday, May 8:

The papal conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis made a decision on the second day, as white smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel where 133 cardinals elected Prevost with at least a two-thirds majority.

🕊️ Conclave status

• First day (May 7): The conclave commenced with an initial vote in the evening, which did not yield a new pope
• Second day (May 8): Two morning ballots were been conducted, both resulting in black smoke. White smoke finally emerged in the afternoon, signaling that Prevost had been elected as the new pope.

Crowds gathered in St. Peter’s Square, awaiting the appearance of white smoke, which signaled the election of the new pope.

🧑‍🦳 Leading candidates

While the proceedings are confidential, several cardinals were considered frontrunners based on their experience and influence before Prevost was elected:

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy): Former Vatican Secretary of State, known for his diplomatic skills and moderate stance.
• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, recognized for his pastoral approach and global perspective
• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): Archbishop of Bologna, respected across ideological lines for his emphasis on social justice

Other notable figures included Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem), Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary), and Cardinal Robert Walter McElroy (USA).

📈 Leading Papabili (candidates to succeed Pope Francis)

Observers generally agreed on a handful of top contenders before Thursday's shocking news that Prevost would be the next pope.

Here were some key figures repeatedly mentioned by Vatican journalists and analysts include:

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – At 70, Parolin is the veteran Vatican Secretary of State and a seasoned diplomat. Often described as a centrist or “compromise candidate” between progressives and conservatives
• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – Nicknamed “Chito,” Tagle (67) is one of the Church’s most charismatic figures and often dubbed the “Asian Francis”
• Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy) – Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian bishops’ conference, Zuppi (69) is seen as a progressive-leaning Italian “outsider” who nonetheless has gained fame at home. The Italian media once labeled him the “Italian Bergoglio” for his affinity with Francis’s style
• Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (Ghana) – At 76, Turkson is a veteran African prelate widely touted as a compromise candidate acceptable to many regions. He would be the first sub-Saharan African pope. Turkson has a long pastoral background in Ghana and extensive Vatican experience, having led justice-and-peace and social-science offices. He’s known for attending global forums (climate change, Davos, etc.) and has strong communication skills
• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, Patriarch of Jerusalem) – Only 60, Pizzaballa is much younger than most others. An Italian Franciscan who has spent decades in the Holy Land, he speaks Hebrew fluently

Other names sometimes cited included Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary), the conservative 72‑year-old Primate of Hungary, and Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea), an African conservative.

Erdő, in particular, was the favorite of traditionalists and an expert in canon law; a recent Guardian column explicitly warned that if a conservative “wins,” it may be Erdő, whose papacy “would wind back” Francis' reforms. No non-cardinals (like lay theologians) are eligible, and younger cardinals (i.e. Archbishop Christophe Zakhia El-Kassis or auxiliary bishops) have not been prominent in betting.

🕊️ Papal name of the next pope

A papal name is the new name a pope chooses upon being elected to the papacy. This name becomes his official title as pope and is how he’ll be known throughout his pontificate (i.e., Pope Francis, Pope John Paul II).

Here was Kalshi's trading market for the next pope's name as of Thursday. Leo, which Prevost chose as his papal name, was trading at 7%.

• Other (36%)
• John (16%)
• John Paul (10%) - Must be both names
• Francis (9%)
• Pius (8%)
• Leo (7%)
• Benedict (6%)
• Paul (6%)
• Gregory (4%)

🕊️ Why do popes choose a new name?

The tradition began in 533 A.D. when Pope John II (born Mercurius) chose not to keep his pagan birth name. Since then, every pope has adopted a papal name to reflect:

• Spiritual inspiration
• Tribute to a past pope or saint
• The vision or tone for their papacy

✝️ How is the name chosen?

• After being elected in the Sistine Chapel, the new pope is asked, "By what name shall you be called?"
• He chooses the name immediately - sometimes spontaneously, sometimes long-considered
• The Cardinal Protodeacon then announces the new name from the balcony with the iconic “Habemus Papam” ("We have a pope")

📜 Examples & meanings

• Pope Francis (2013): Chose the name in honor of St. Francis of Assisi, symbolizing humility and care for the poor
• Pope John Paul II: Honored his predecessor John Paul I and emphasized continuity
• Pope Benedict XVI: Evoked Benedict XV, a peace-seeking pope during WWI, and St. Benedict, founder of Western monasticism

🌎 Birth country of the next pope

Here was Kalshi's prediction market for the birth country of the next pope, with Italy (54%) considered the favorite. Prevost was elected as the first-ever American pope.

• Italy (55%)
• Philippines (21%)
• Algeria (6%)
• Democratic Republic of Congo (1%)

🔮 Predictions for the new pope

• Updated new pope betting odds
• What name will the new pope choose?
• When next pope will be chosen AI prediction
• New pope betting odds

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