Updated New Pope Betting Odds & AI Prediction: Robert Prevost Elected as Massive Long Shot
The conclave elected the new pope at the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City Thursday, and Cardinal Robert Prevost of Chicago was announced after being a massive long shot by the updated next pope odds.
The updated next pope odds gave Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy an implied win probability of 30.77%. Cardinal Prevost has roughly a 2% chance of being the next pope as of Thursday morning, before being elected and choosing Pope Leo XIV as his papal name.
🕊️ Who will be the next pope?
Here's a look at Kalshi's prediction trading market for who will be elected as the new pope prior to Thursday's announcement at St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City.
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- Pietro Parolin (63% chance)
- Luis Antonio Tagle (23%)
- Pierbattista Pizzablla (6%)
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🗳️ Voting process & smoke signals
Inside the Sistine Chapel the election follows the ancient rules of Universi Dominici Gregis. Each cardinal writes “Eligo in Summum Pontificem” (“I elect as Supreme Pontiff”) on a ballot with the name of his chosen candidate. Three scrutineers (vote-counters) and three infirmarii (to collect votes from sick cardinals) are chosen by lot before each ballot.
Once all votes are cast, the ballots are counted and then burned in the chapel’s stove. Cardinals swear an oath in Italian – “Chiamo a testimone Cristo Signore…” – invoking Christ as their witness before placing their folded ballot on the altar. Up to four ballots are held each day (two in the morning, two in the afternoon). If no candidate achieves the required two-thirds majority after three days, the cardinals pause for additional prayer and discussion, then resume voting, and may eventually limit the choice to the top two vote-getters.
After each ballot, colored smoke is released from the chapel’s chimney to notify the world of the result: black smoke if no candidate met the threshold, or white smoke when a new pope has been elected. (Each ballot’s burned ballots and chemical additives produce the different colors.)
Once a cardinal receives the necessary votes, he is led to the adjacent “Room of Tears” to don white papal vestments before being presented from the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica. Throughout the conclave, all cardinals remain bound by absolute secrecy; breaking this oath carries the penalty of excommunication.
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