Pantoja vs. Kara-France Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 317

In Saturday night's UFC 317 co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja looks to prolong an impressive title reign when he takes on Kai Kara-France.

Themistoklis Alexis

Last Updated: June 28, 2025 2:54 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Pantoja vs. Kara-France Prediction: UFC 317 Odds & Expert Picks, June 28 — Pictured: Can Alexandre Pantoja, the betting favorite, retain his title? We break that down in our Pantoja vs. Kara-France prediction. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie via Imagn Images.

Alexandre Pantoja looks to prolong his impressive title reign at Saturday’s UFC 317 when he takes on Kai Kara-France in the co-headliner at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena, and we give our best Pantoja vs. Kara-France prediction.

The Brazilian claimed the crown nearly two years ago with a decision over Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 and has since retained it against Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, and most recently, Kai Asakura.

Kara-France gets his first crack at the flyweight throne 10 months after disposing of Erceg by first-round TKO at UFC 305.

📊 Pantoja vs. Kara-France UFC odds

Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.

Pantoja	Method of victory	Kara-France
-238	Win outright	+195
+550	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	+550
+225	Win by unanimous decision	+500
+5000	Draw	+5000

With three consecutive title defenses to his name, Pantoja enters this matchup a comfortable betting favorite across the best sports betting sites, and it’s DraftKings that gets the nod for Saturday’s co-headliner, as it leads the competition both in straight moneyline action and prop lines.

🥊 Pantoja vs. Kara-France prediction & fight preview

✅ Prediction: Pantoja to win
📊 Best odds: -238 via DraftKings ($10 to win $4.20)

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It isn’t always pretty, but Pantoja has a way of gutting and grinding out wins, even against more technically proficient strikers.

Not only has he never been finished, but the champ has gotten the better of solid bruisers in Manel Kape, Royval (twice), Moreno, Erceg, and Asakura over his seven-fight win streak, and Kara-France - game as he is - is destined to join them.

Much like he did against Erceg, Pantoja will resort to the takedown should Kara-France’s mitts begin finding their home. Expect Pantoja to eat a few zingers and pad his average of 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes en route to a fourth successful title defense.

FanDuel and BetMGM, among others, list the champ at odds around or shorter than -240. That's why we're going to DraftKings to make this bet.

💰 Pantoja vs. Kara-France best bet

✅ Best bet: Pantoja to land four-plus takedowns
📊 Best odds: +175 via DraftKings ($10 to win $17.50)

Pantoja’s path to victory goes through his grappling, which means takedowns aplenty.

The champ has scored multiple takedowns in each of his four championship bouts and over six in three of them. Given the threat Kara-France poses on the feet, expect that trend to continue Saturday night.

Several of the best sports betting apps are offering props on Pantoja scoring five and six takedowns and up, but since he could end this one early, we’re cautiously settling on four-plus takedowns. As with our moneyline pick, FanDuel offers compelling value on this week’s prop, but DraftKings has it beat at +175 to +170.

🆚 Pantoja vs. Kara-France tale of the tape

Pantoja		Kara-France
35	Age	32
5-foot-5	Height	5-foot-4
125 lbs	Weight	125 lbs
67 inches	Reach	69 inches
29-5	Record	25-11 (1 NC)

📡 How to watch Pantoja vs. Kara-France: UFC 317

📅 Saturday, June 28
🕗 10:00 p.m. ET
📍 T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
📺 PPV | 🛜 ESPN+

💡 More UFC predictions today

❓ Pantoja vs. Kara-France FAQs

Who is favored to win UFC tonight?

Alexandre Pantoja is the betting favorite in the UFC 317 co-main event.

How do UFC odds work?

UFC odds work very similarly to team sports. The favorite will have "minus"-money odds. In this case, Pantoja is listed at -238, which means he has a 70.41% implied probability of winning.

Who will win between Pantoja vs. Kara-France?

We predict Pantoja, the betting favorite, will win tonight.

💵 Best UFC betting sites

Ready to bet on UFC 317? Check out the best UFC betting sites and best sportsbook promos for this weekend's card:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Written by:
Themistoklis Alexis

Themistoklis Alexis has specialized in MMA- and boxing-specific sports betting for the past several years, having joined Sportsbook Review in early 2022. An avid bettor himself, he routinely places his bets with the especially user-friendly bet365, DraftKings for its array of prop lines, and/or FanDuel for its ever-compelling odds. Before coming to SBR, Themistoklis spent another few years covering the MMA beat at theScore, contributing everything from news stories to features to comprehensive fight week coverage, and was a diehard follower of the sport long before he ever covered it professionally. His introduction to MMA came in 2007 with UFC 74, where Randy Couture defended his heavyweight crown with a thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga. Themistoklis holds a Bachelor's degree in Journalism from Toronto's Centennial College. In addition to all things MMA, he is equally interested in both boxing and cinematic lore. If there's any advice he can impart to new and experienced sports bettors, it's to avoid betting against the greats and keep their options open, as committing to a single sportsbook can prove shortsighted and deprive them of access to the best available odds.