UFC Odds & Predictions: Expert Picks for UFC 317 - Topuria vs. Oliveira
The UFC takes T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tonight with a bill headlined by a pair of world championship bouts, and we’ve got our UFC 317 odds and predictions mere hours before the Octagon door shuts.
The main event features Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira battling for the vacant lightweight championship. Topuria moves up in weight after vacating his featherweight title, which he’d defended with a KO of Max Holloway last October, while Oliveira aims to build off a decision over Michael Chandler last time out.
In the co-headliner, Alexandre Pantoja puts his flyweight strap on the line against Kai Kara-France. The reigning champ most recently defended the crown for the third time with a submission of Kai Asakura in December. As for the challenger, Kara-France was last seen stopping former contender Steve Erceg by first-round TKO last August.
💰 UFC odds, predictions & picks: Topuria vs. Oliveira
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Oliveira by KO/TKO or submission vs. Topuria (+475 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Dariush by decision vs. Moicano (+260 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- McKinney vs. Borshchev Under 0.5 Rounds (+215 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 UFC 317 picks
🥊 Oliveira by KO/TKO or submission vs. Topuria ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +475 via BetMGM ($10 to win $47.50)
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Oddsmakers and pundits alike have been quick to write Oliveira off in Saturday’s main event as evidenced by the UFC 317 odds, but he could very well make Topuria rue the move to lightweight.
Not only is Oliveira the more accurate striker, landing 55% of his attempts to Topuria’s 47%, but he’s matured into a first-rate pressure fighter, and he’ll be the first to truly put Topuria on the back foot. Between the move up in weight, Oliveira’s varied arsenal, and stifling pressure, Topuria may have a hard time setting his feet and landing a combo of substance to earn Oliveira’s respect.
With 10 KO/TKO stoppages and 21 career tapouts to his name, the Brazilian can finish anywhere, and while Topuria’s mat skills are solid, anyone who’s watched Oliveira knows he’s just a different beast in the grappling department. No matter where the action goes, I see Oliveira remaining a step ahead of Topuria and adding to his stoppage totals in reclaiming the UFC lightweight crown.
🥊 Dariush by decision vs. Moicano ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +260 via FanDuel ($10 to win $26)
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A two-fight slump should bring out a mature, methodical performance from Beneil Dariush opposite Renato Moicano this Saturday.
The longtime contender had won three straight fights by decision with measured, cerebral showings before suffering two straight knockouts, and he’ll need the full 15 yet again to beat an ever-game Moicano. While his striking has improved, Moicano remains a little raw in that department, and if Dariush claims the center, he should gain the upper hand as the superior technician and land the more telling blows. As is often the case when top-notch grapplers clash, these two likely won’t spend much time on the mat, but don’t be surprised if Dariush lands a late takedown or two to sway the judges and rebound with a 10th career win on points.
🥊 McKinney vs. Borshchev Under 0.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +215 via DraftKings ($10 to win $21.50)
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In this clash of lightweight action fighters, Viacheslav Borshchev should give Terrance McKinney the fight he wants, which means this one will be over quickly.
McKinney’s last four fights and 17 of his 23 have ended within half a round, while Borshchev has earned six of his eight victories inside the distance. Furthermore, McKinney has yet to hear the final horn as a pro. At the same time, Borshchev prefers to stay upright and duke it out, and with each man averaging over five significant strikes landed per minute, expect these two to sling oodles of leather. Whether McKinney wins big by KO or club-and-sub, or Borshchev puts him down with a nasty salvo, this one ends within half a round. DraftKings is our book of choice here, being one of the few offering any action on over/under 0.5 rounds.
💡 More UFC predictions today
- UFC 317 predictions and odds
- Topuria vs. Oliveira prediction
- Pantoja vs. Kara-France prediction
💵 Best UFC betting sites
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- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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