Kamaru Usman will defend his welterweight crown against the streaking Leon Edwards in UFC 278’s headliner on Saturday. Check out our Usman-Edwards picks ahead of the bill’s main event.

The reigning champion heads to Salt Lake City with five consecutive title defenses and a pristine UFC record of 15-0 to his name. In his most recent outing, Usman, 35, capped a busy 2021 by outworking longtime rival Colby Covington to claim a unanimous decision - his second victory over the universally loathed contender. As for his challenger, Edwards hasn’t taken an L since falling to Usman on points back in 2015, compiling nine straight victories to bring his promotional slate to 11-2 and earn a long-awaited rematch.

Will Usman outwrestle Edwards yet again to retain the strap, or will Edwards’ well-rounded game be enough to even the score?

Here are my Usman-Edwards picks and predictions for Saturday’s marquee matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Usman vs. Edwards Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Aug. 20, 10 p.m. ET (main card)
TV: PPV, ESPN+
Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT

Usman vs. Edwards Odds Analysis

Usman opened as a comfortable favorite and he remains one ahead of Saturday’s event, with lines on the defending champ ranging from -360 (DraftKings) to a whopping -400 (Caesars). Those banking on Usman’s much improved striking to earn him the W will find a 10th career KO/TKO at +270 with FanDuel, and if you think he’ll defend the crown with a workmanlike, wrestling-heavy effort, you’ll find a decision victory at -110 with the same sportsbook.

As for the challenger, Edwards is listed at +295 with DraftKings and +310 with Caesars. The 30-year-old has earned eight of his 11 UFC victories on points, so if you’re pining for what would mark a historic upset, you’ll find a decision win for Edwards ranges from +700 (Caesars) to +850 (FanDuel).

Usman vs. Edwards Picks

Who Will Win Usman vs. Edwards?

Usman (-360)

The advantage in most every facet of this matchup lies with the champion. While Edwards’ timing on his level changes is excellent, I doubt he’ll have his way with Usman on the mat, and I don’t see him outmuscling the champ from the clinch or against the cage. If anything, Edwards’ best path to victory might go through his striking, but he rarely slings leather with any urgency, and I doubt he’ll throw enough volume to keep Usman on his back foot.

All this to say, Usman should have plenty of time and space to find his range in the striking exchanges, and he can always drag Edwards to the mat and chew the clock if things get hairy on the feet.

Usman vs. Edwards Over/Under

Under 3.5 rounds (+175)

Usman has secured three of his five title defenses by knockout or TKO, with his thunderous stoppages of Jorge Masvidal and Gilbert Burns ending in the second and third round, respectively. If his rematch with Edwards stays standing, I doubt Usman will need more than a few clean right hands to put the challenger down, and should he ride his wrestling, the champ should be free to uncork some hellacious ground-and-pound while Edwards struggles under his anvil-like base.

Granted, the old Usman could always show up and run out the clock from top control, but given Edwards’ usual reluctance to be the aggressor and push his advantages, I expect Usman will play that role and make it known he’s the superior bruiser in a short night of work.

Usman vs. Edwards Winning Method

Usman by KO/TKO (+270)

Had this rematch been booked a few years back, I’d have banked on Usman playing the human blanket and keeping Edwards on his back for another win on points. This time around, I expect the champ to make his edge in raw power known early.

Yes, Edwards may own the more varied arsenal, but he’s rarely one to push the pace, and unless he puts his foot on the gas and aims to overwhelm Usman with volume, I see the reigning champ sticking the challenger with his piston-like jab early and often, battering Edwards’ noggin and midsection in equal measure, and dropping him with a thunderous straight right for a fourth knockout in six title defenses.

Where to Bet on UFC 278

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Usman-Edwards picks made 8/19/2022 at 12:52 a.m. ET