Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds Tonight: UFC 315

Valentina Shevchenko makes the first title defense in her sophomore reign as UFC flyweight queen tonight, as she meets challenger Manon Fiorot in the co-headliner of UFC 315 at Montreal’s Bell Centre.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot Prediction
Pictured: Alexa Grasso of Mexico fights Valentina Shevchenko of Kyrgyzstan. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie via Imagn Images.

Valentina Shevchenko begins her second stint as UFC flyweight champion with a title defense against Manon Fiorot in the co-main event of UFC 315, set for Saturday at Montreal’s Bell Centre. As we break down our UFC picks, this matchup promises high-stakes action in the Octagon.

In our Shevchenko vs. Fiorot prediction, the defending champ enters as a slight underdog despite boasting a far more accomplished UFC resume, including a dominant first reign with seven successful title defenses.

📈 UFC 315 betting action for Shevchenko vs. Fiorot

According to BetMGM, Shevchenko by decision/tech decision (+200) is the fourth-most bet ticket among UFC 315 props. The two most bet props for tonight's action are Muhammad by decision/tech decision (-115) and Della Maddalena by KO/TKO (+275).

🥊 Shevchenko vs. Fiorot prediction & fight preview

Fiorot may be this bout’s betting favorite, but Shevchenko will prove too great a step up once the cage door shuts.

The challenger’s win streak and active kicking game from range are certainly worth commending, but few can blend striking, takedowns, and top control as deftly as Shevchenko, and Fiorot has yet to face that kind of beast in a comparatively short UFC stint. Not only does the reigning titleholder defend a whopping 64% of the opposition’s significant strike attempts, she also hits her takedowns at the exact same clip. 

Furthermore, Shevchenko has scored multiple takedowns in 11 of her last 12 fights, going a solid 10-1-1 in that stretch. In other words, I expect the champ to time her counters and takedowns off Fiorot’s kicks and dominate from top control en route to another successful title defense, just as she’s done to many a woman before.

Shevchenko’s resume and 13 UFC wins weren’t enough to keep her from heading to Montreal as a slight underdog, which means compelling action abounds for the champ. While FanDuel and BetMGM offer a successful title defense at +108 and +110, respectively, it’s DraftKings that has our moneyline bet on Shevchenko at +114.

✅ Prediction: Shevchenko to win (+114 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 46.7%

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💰 Shevchenko vs. Fiorot best bet

Chewing the clock is the name of the game for Shevchenko here, which means she’ll need the judges’ participation.

The 37-year-old has gone the distance in six of her last 11, and it behooves her to do the same against a challenger who strikes at a high rate and is no stranger to decisions herself. Indeed, Fiorot is always a threat as long as she’s upright, and I see a generally risk-averse Shevchenko neutralizing that threat with trips and top control from first bell to last for a successful start to her second reign.

DraftKings may have our moneyline pick for Saturday’s co-main event, but not our best bet. While the sportsbook has a Shevchenko win on points at a tempting +200, FanDuel gets the nod with a solid +220 as of early Saturday morning.

✅ Best bet: Shevchenko by decision (+220 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 31.3%

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📊 Shevchenko vs. Fiorot odds

Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.

Shevchenko Method of victory Fiorot
+114 Win outright -135
+800 Win by KO/TKO/DQ +550
+200 Win by unanimous decision +120
+5000 Draw +5000

Shevchenko remains a surprising underdog not 24 hours from fight night, and between her methodical ways and Fiorot’s five straight trips to the scorecards, prop lines on a decision are certainly worth your attention.

🆚 Shevchenko vs. Fiorot tale of the tape

Shevchenko Fiorot
37 Age 35
5'5" Height 5'7"
125lbs Weight 125lbs
66" Reach 65"
24-4-1 Record 12-1

📡 How to watch Shevchenko vs. Fiorot: UFC 315

📅 Saturday, May 10
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Bell Centre (Montreal)
📺 PPV | 🛜 ESPN+

🔮 UFC 315 expert picks

💵 Best UFC betting sites

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