PGA Championship Expert Picks & Best Bets: Pick to Win, Long Shot, and Top Prop Bets

Golf's second major of the 2025 season tees off Thursday morning at 7 a.m. ET at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, and our PGA Championship expert picks and best bets can help you finalize your betting ticket.

Our expert picks for the PGA Championship include: my favorite outright pick, best long-shot prediction, a first-round leader prediction, and my favorite prop bets.

Read to the bottom to see ChatGPT's four-star pick to win the PGA Championship!

🌳 PGA Championship expert picks & best bets

Our expert picks are based on the odds from our best golf betting sites. Use our player prop odds tool when looking for the best odds on any golfer for a single bet.

💰 Best pick to win the PGA Championship: Rory McIlroy (+500 via DraftKings)
🎯 Best PGA Championship long-shot prediction: Keith Mitchell (+13000 via DraftKings)
⏰ Best first-round leader prediction: Min Woo Lee (+7000 via FanDuel)
🤖 AI pick to win: Bryson DeChambeau (+900 via DraftKings)

💰 PGA Championship outright pick

Here is my best outright pick to win the PGA Championship:

🍀 Rory McIlroy

👉 Best odds: +500 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $50 profit) | Implied win probability: 16.67%

If you were to design a golf course specifically for McIlroy to showcase his skill set, it would look a lot like Quail Hollow. Demanding an abundance of length off the tee (and everywhere else) and a sharp iron game, this venue is tailor-made to McIlroy.

And he's taken advantage of that throughout his career. He's won four PGA Tour events at Quail Hollow, including last year's Wells Fargo Championship. Nobody is close to matching his 2.87 true strokes gained on the field per round across 50 career rounds played at this venue.

Couple the career success with McIlroy's recent Masters-winning form and the evaporation of the pressure the Northern Irishman has long faced in majors while trying to end over a decade-long drought, and McIlroy's my easy choice to win the 2025 PGA Championship with a winning $10 bet returning a profit of $50.

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💤 Sleeper pick to win the 2025 PGA Championship

Here is my best sleeper pick I'm backing to win the 2025 PGA Championship:

🎯 Keith Mitchell

👉 Best odds to win: +13000 via DraftKings ($10 pays $1,300) | Implied win probability: 0.76%
Alternate bet: Top 20 after Round 1 (+375 via bet365)

Mitchell is best known for his first-round scoring this season, as he leads the PGA Tour with a scoring average of 66.55 through the first 18 holes of tournaments. He held the lead after Round 1 of the Truist Championship Signature Event but finished T-7, and that marked his fourth straight top-20 finish to climb back to No. 80 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

He returns to Quail Hollow Club after skipping last year's tournament in Charlotte. He has averaged 1.61 true strokes gained on the field per round across 16 rounds at this venue, with finishes of T-8 and T-3 in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

Mitchell's well above average in both driving distance and accuracy, and he's averaging 0.75 SG: approach over his last 20 measured rounds. 

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💰 PGA Championship first-round leader prediction

Here is my best first-round leader prediction for the PGA Championship:

Min Woo Lee

👉 Best odds: +7000 via FanDuel ($10 pays $700)

Lee claimed his first PGA Tour victory about a month-and-a-half ago and the Australian star will now compete in a 15th straight major. He's missed just four cuts in that time with a top finish of T-5 in the 2023 U.S. Open. His best result in the PGA Championship was a T-18 two years ago.

Lee can bomb it off the tee and won't face much penalty for inaccuracy, especially with his 8:11 a.m. ET tee time when the wind will be slightly lighter, and while the course still plays softer following the rain early in the week. I expect him to play free-and-easy golf in the morning wave and to set the early pace.

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🤖 PGA Championship AI prediction

Here is ChatGPT's best pick to win the PGA Championship. Please note this pick is for entertainment purposes only and serves to provide addition information and insights to make informed decisions:

Bryson DeChambeau

👉 Best odds: +900 via DraftKings ($10 pays $90)

• Recent performance: DeChambeau has been in excellent form, notably winning the 2024 U.S. Open and securing a fifth-place finish at the Masters before winning the LIV Golf Korea event last week.
• Course fit: Quail Hollow favors long hitters, and DeChambeau's driving power positions him well to capitalize on the course's challenges.
• Betting odds: DraftKings lists DeChambeau at +950 to win the PGA Championship. This offers substantial value compared to favorites like Scottie Scheffler (+400) and Rory McIlroy (+450), especially given DeChambeau's recent form and course compatibility.

In summary, DeChambeau presents a strong combination of recent success, course suitability, and favorable betting odds, making him a valuable pick for the 2025 PGA Championship.

AI confidence rating: ★★★★☆ (4 out of 5) | Estimated win probability: 10% to 12%

💰 Best PGA Championship prop bets

Odds cited are from Tuesday morning and are subject to change.

• Brooks Koepka Top-30 finish (+105 via Caesars)
• Shane Lowry Top-30 finish (+100 via Caesars)
• Joaquin Niemann Top South American player (-200 via bet365)
• Ludvig Aberg Top Nordic player (+185 via Caesars)
• Xander Schauffele Top-10 finish (+220 via DraftKings)
• Justin Thomas Top-20 finish (-110 via DraftKings)
• Patrick Cantlay Top-10 finish (+350 via Caesars)
• Scottie Scheffler Top 20 after Round 1 (+110 via bet365)
• Bryson DeChambeau Top LIV player (+180 via Caesars)
• Rory McIlroy Top British and Irish player (+100 via FanDuel)

🔮 PGA Championship expert picks

• Updated PGA Championship odds
• PGA Championship first-round leader odds
• PGA Championship power rankings
• PGA Championship AI predictions
• PGA Championship long shots and sleeper picks
• Who'll win the PGA Championship?

🏆 2025 PGA Championship info

📅 When: Thursday, May 15 - Sunday, May 18
⛳ Where: Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, N.C)
📺 How to watch: CBS and ESPN
🏆 Defending champion: Xander Schauffele
💰 Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+500 via BetMGM)

📊 PGA Championship odds to win

Our 2025 PGA Championship odds update in real time based on the odds from our best golf betting sites. The tournament begins with Round 1 on Thursday.

⛳ Golf betting odds pages

🏌️Here are our best golf betting sites for the 2025 PGA Championship

Looking to bet on the PGA Championship? Here are our top-rated best golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos to help you get the best odds on your picks to win at Quail Hollow Club.

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