Players Championship AI Picks & Predictions: ChatGPT's Best Golf Outrights and Props
TPC Sawgrass is one of the PGA Tour's premier venues because of its penchant for the unpredictable and dramatic Sunday finishes. As such, we've turned to ChatGPT for our PLAYERS Championship AI predictions.
Often called the "fifth major" for professional golfers, the Players Championship is the PGA Tour's crown jewel. Played annually at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., the tournament runs from Thursday to Sunday this week with coverage on NBC.
Two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler heads into Round 1 as the heavy consensus tournament betting favorite by the Players Championship odds.
๐ค Players Championship AI picks & predictions for TPC Sawgrass
We've previously used ChatGPT to predict its March Madness bracket, Super Bowl picks, and even its Canada vs. USA predictions, and we're once again turning to OpenAI's popular chatbot to predict the winner of this week's Players Championship.
Ahead of Thursday's first round, I trained ChatGPT to study the latest golf odds, betting history, and relevant trends before predicting this weekend's winner:
๐ ChatGPT's pick to win The Players Championship
ChatGPT predicts Ludvig Aberg will win the 2025 Players Championship with a winning score of 14-under par.
His best odds of +1800 from BetMGM represent an implied win probability of 5.26% in the 144-man field. Aberg won The Genesis Invitational earlier this season and enters the week fifth in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).
Here's why the AI model is predicting Aberg will win this week's PGA Tour event:
1. Elite ball striking & iron play
- TPC Sawgrass is known for rewarding elite iron players, and Aberg ranks among the best in strokes gained: approach this season
- Precision is key on this course, especially with small greens and dangerous water hazards. Abergโs accuracy gives him a strong edge
2. Recent form & confidence boost
- He won the 2025 Genesis Invitational, outlasting a stacked Signature Event field and showing clutch play under pressure
- He has multiple top-10 finishes this season, including his win, proving heโs consistently in contention at elite events
3. Course fit & experience
- This will be Abergโs second appearance at TPC Sawgrass, meaning he now has crucial experience navigating its tricky layout
- First-timers rarely win here, but with last yearโs experience (an eighth-place finish) under his belt, he can make a serious run at the title
๐ค AI confidence level: โญโญโญโญ (8% chance of winning per AI simulation)
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๐ฐ ChatGPT's best prop bet for The Players Championship
ChatGPT predicts Over 52.5 balls landing in the water around the famous 17th-hole island green during the tournament as a prop bet offering value. This bet is available at ESPN BET.
Here's why ChatGPT is predicting Over 52.5 balls in the water on the 17th hole:
- Historical data: The 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass, known for its iconic island green, has historically been a magnet for errant shots. For instance, during the 2023 Players Championship, a total of 50 balls found the water on the 17th hole.
- Course conditions: The 2025 tournament is expected to feature windy conditions, increasing the likelihood of players misjudging their shots on this treacherous hole. Such weather factors can significantly impact performance, leading to more balls in the water.
- Betting insights: Experts have highlighted this particular prop bet as a favorable option, noting the potential for increased water hazards due to the anticipated conditions.
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๐ฏ ChatGPT's best long shot to win The Players Championship
For a long-shot prediction to win the 2025 Players Championship, ChatGPT says to back Keegan Bradley at +5000 odds, as listed by DraftKings.
Here's why to back Bradley for a $500 return on a winning $10 bet:
- Recent performance: Bradley has been in solid form this season, showcasing consistent play and two top-10 finishes
- Course compatibility: His strong ball-striking abilities align well with the demands of TPC Sawgrass, a course that rewards precision
- Experience: With 13 career appearances at The Players Championship, Bradley brings valuable experience to this challenging tournament, including a fifth-place finish in 2022
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๐๏ธ Best bet for Scottie Scheffler
I asked ChatGPT for its best bet on Scheffler as the tournament betting favorite. It suggests backing Scheffler in the outright betting market, but I asked it to offer another bet on Scheffler as he looks to win at TPC Sawgrass for the third straight year.
Top-5 finish
๐ Best odds: +138 via bet365
1. Consistency in big events
- Scheffler almost never finishes outside the top 10 in elite fields
- In his last 10 PGA Tour starts, he has four top-5 finishes, showing he is regularly in contention
2. TPC Sawgrass course history
- He won the last two Players Championships, proving he knows how to navigate this tricky course
- Even if he doesnโt win for a third straight year (which has never happened), a top-5 finish is highly realistic
3. Lower volatility, higher probability
- Golf is unpredictable. Winning is incredibly difficult, even for the best players
- A top-5 finish bet offers strong returns without the risk of an outright bet losing if he finishes 2nd-5th
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๐ค The Players Championship AI projections for the top 20
๐ Winner: Ludvig Aberg (-14)
- Elite ball striking and strong recent form (2025 Genesis Invitational winner)
- Has gained crucial experience at TPC Sawgrass and fits the mold of past winners
2. ๐บ๐ธ Xander Schauffele (-13)
- One of the most consistent players in the world, thrives in big events
- Strong iron play and putting make him a top contender
3. Rory McIlroy (-12)
- Won here in 2019, and his driving dominance gives him an edge
- Comes in with confidence after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
4. ๐บ๐ธ Scottie Scheffler (-11)
- Going for a historic three-peat at TPC Sawgrass
- Ball striking remains elite, but putting inconsistencies could hold him back
5. ๐บ๐ธ Collin Morikawa (-11)
- One of the best iron players in the world, a key skill for Sawgrass
- If his putting holds up, heโll be a serious contender
6. ๐ณ๐ด Viktor Hovland (-10)
- TPC Sawgrass suits his precise approach play and short game improvements
7. ๐บ๐ธ Patrick Cantlay (-10)
- Consistently strong in big events, and his all-around game fits Sawgrass well
8. ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Tommy Fleetwood (-9)
- Has several strong finishes at Sawgrass
9. ๐บ๐ธ Max Homa (-9)
- Steady performer in elite fields, and his short game keeps improving
10. ๐ฏ๐ต Hideki Matsuyama (-8)
- Ball-striking wizard who plays well in tough conditions
11-20: Strong contenders
๐บ๐ธ Justin Thomas (-8)
โ Past champion with elite wedge play
๐บ๐ธ Jordan Spieth (-7)
โ Risk-reward player who could go low or struggle
๐บ๐ธ Tony Finau (-7)
โ Has the skill set but needs a strong putting week
๐ฎ๐ช Shane Lowry (-7)
โ Excellent in windy conditions, could thrive this week
๐ฐ๐ท Sungjae Im (-6)
โ Consistent ball striker who fits well here
๐บ๐ธ Sam Burns (-6)
โ Elite putter, could climb with a hot flatstick
๐บ๐ธ Cam Young (-6)
โ Aggressive player who could contend if he avoids mistakes
๐บ๐ธ Keegan Bradley (-5)
โ Long-shot pick at +5000, has been trending upward
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Matt Fitzpatrick (-5)
โ Short game specialist who plays well in tough setups
๐บ๐ธ Rickie Fowler (-5)
โ Former Players champion, showing flashes of his old form
Honorable mentions:
โ๏ธ Missed cut watch: Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Corey Conners
๐ Dark horse to watch: Min Woo Lee
๐ฐ PGA Tour best bets for The Players Championship
| Bet | Driver | Odds | Implied win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ Pick to win | Ludvig Aberg | +1800 | 5.26% |
| ๐ฐ Best prop bet | Over 52.5 balls in the water on No. 17 | -110 | 52.36% |
| ๐ฏ Best long shot | Keegan Bradley | +5000 | 1.96% |
๐ฎ Players Championship expert picks
Here are my top Players Championship picks and odds breakdowns:
- Players Championship AI picks and predictions
- Players Championship first-round leader prediction
- Players Championship sleepers and long shots
- Players Championship picks to win
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The Players Championship?
- Players Championship odds to win
Players Championship betting insights
Here's a breakdown of the betting action on The Players Championship at BetMGM as of Wednesday:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg (8.9) | Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Ludvig Aberg |
| Scottie Scheffler (8.6) | Ludvig Aberg (15.9) | Sepp Straka |
| Collin Morikawa (7.1) | Collin Morikawa (9.5) | Collin Morikawa |
"The Players Championship is absolutely our busiest tournament outside of the majors and it's no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is the clear favourite this week as he goes for his third consecutive win in this tournament. Ludvig Aberg and Sepp Straka currently sit as our worst results as the public continues to bet these two Europeans.
Additionally, weโre excited to showcase the infamous 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass with markets on closest to the pin, a player to hit one in the water, and more for every group this weekend." โ Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
First-round leader betting action
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Taylor (6.5) | Nick Taylor (11.2) | Nick Taylor |
| Ludvig Aberg (5.3) | Scottie Scheffler (7.7) | Tom Hoge |
| Tom Hoge (4.8) | Rory McIlroy (6.5) | Hideki Matsuyama |
๐ Players Championship tournament info
- When: Thursday, March 13 - Sunday, March 16
- Where: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
- Purse: $25 million
- FedEx Cup points: 750
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+500 via BetRivers)
- Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
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