Players Championship Expert Picks: Best Golf Bets for TPC Sawgrass
Golf's "fifth major" tees off tomorrow morning at 7:40 a.m. ET at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., and our PLAYERS Championship expert picks have you covered with all of the action available on NBC and Golf Channel.
Scottie Scheffler returns to TPC Sawgrass as the two-time defending tournament champion. He is the consensus betting favorite by Players Championship outright odds.
2025 Players Championship expert picks
Here are my best bets for the 2025 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Picks are based on the odds at our best golf betting sites.
- Outright pick: Collin Morikawa (+1600 via DraftKings)
- Long-shot pick: Corey Conners to win (+6000 via FanDuel)
- First-round leader pick: Justin Thomas (+3500 via DraftKings)
- Scottie Scheffler pick: Top 5 finish (+125 via bet365)
- AI prop pick: Over 52.5 balls in the water on No. 17 (-110 via ESPN BET)
💰 Players Championship outright pick
🇺🇸 Collin Morikawa
👉 Best odds: +1600 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $160 profit) | Implied win probability: 5.88%
Terms and conditions apply.
Morikawa led the Arnold Palmer Invitational field - many of which are playing this week at TPC Sawgrass - with 3.06 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round. He also gained more than a stroke per round on approach and around the green, and it was his putter that held him back in Sunday's second-place finish.
While TPC Sawgrass hasn't been particularly friendly to the two-time major winner, I'm jumping on these lingering +1600 odds from DraftKings with Caesars offering odds of just +1200. That's a difference of $40 in profit on a winning $10 bet. Our DraftKings promo code gets new users $150 in bonus bets when signing up today.
Morikawa's best result at TPC Sawgrass was a T-13 through four career appearances in the event. He tied for 45th last year.
Players Championship picks to win made by Esten McLaren.
🎯 Players Championship long shot
💰 Corey Conners
Best odds: +6000 via FanDuel | $10 bet pays a $600 profit
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $200 in Bonus Bets, if your bet wins. (within 72 hours).
I almost included Conners in my main Players Championship outright picks article, but I couldn't get to the required confidence level. The Canadian used a third-place finish in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational to move up to No. 30 in the OWGR and qualify for the British Open later this summer.
Conners played in this event each of the past five (full) runnings of the tournament. He tied for 13th last year and had his best finish of seventh in 2021. His putter and short game have typically held him back from better finishes at TPC Sawgrass.
Neither of those were issues for Conners last week. He averaged 0.88 strokes gained: around-the-green and 0.71 SG: putting per round at Bay Hill. Maintaining that same form and continuing his expert iron play will have him in contention into the weekend.
Players Championship sleepers and long shots picked by Esten McLaren.
💰 Players Championship 18-hole leader prediction
🇺🇸 Justin Thomas
👉 Best odds: +3500 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 2.78%
Thomas, the 2021 Players champion, is in one of two star-studded featured groups for Thursday and Friday. He'll play his first two rounds with Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama, and they'll tee off Thursday morning at 8:24 a.m. ET from the 10th tee.
This puts Thomas in the better - and less windy - weather on Thursday. The ninth-ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) is coming off a T-36 finish at Bay Hill last week. He previously tied for ninth in The Genesis, sixth in the Phoenix Open, and was the runner-up in The American Express earlier this year.
Thomas missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass last year, but he's averaged 1.76 true strokes gained per round across 34 career rounds in The Players.
Players Championship first-round leader prediction made by Esten McLaren.
Scottie Scheffler Players Championship prop bet
Top 5 finish
Best odds: +125 via bet365 ($10 bet pays a $12.50 profit) | Implied win probability: 44.44%
*Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
It's always a good idea to bet Scheffler's tournament placing as far down the leaderboard as we get plus money to do so. We can get a top-5 finish at +125 odds via bet365, and we'll cash this bet even if four other golfers finish in front of him.
He's already logged a T-3 in The Genesis Invitational Signature Event four weeks ago.
We looked at whether Scottie Scheffler win The Players Championship.
💰 ChatGPT's best prop bet for The Players Championship
ChatGPT predicts Over 52.5 balls landing in the water around the famous 17th-hole island green during the tournament as a prop bet offering value. This bet is available at ESPN BET.
Here's why ChatGPT is predicting Over 52.5 balls in the water on the 17th hole:
- Historical data: The 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass, known for its iconic island green, has historically been a magnet for errant shots. For instance, during the 2023 Players Championship, a total of 50 balls found the water on the 17th hole
- Course conditions: The 2025 tournament is expected to feature windy conditions, increasing the likelihood of players misjudging their shots on this treacherous hole. Such weather factors can significantly impact performance, leading to more balls in the water
- Betting insights: Experts have highlighted this particular prop bet as a favorable option, noting the potential for increased water hazards due to the anticipated conditions
Players Championship AI picks and predictions made by ChatGPT.
🔮 Players Championship expert picks
Here are my top Players Championship picks and odds breakdowns:
- Players Championship AI picks and predictions
- Players Championship first-round leader prediction
- Players Championship sleepers and long shots
- Players Championship picks to win
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The Players Championship?
- Players Championship odds to win
Players Championship betting insights
Here's a breakdown of the betting action on The Players Championship at BetMGM as of Wednesday:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg (8.9) | Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Ludvig Aberg |
| Scottie Scheffler (8.6) | Ludvig Aberg (15.9) | Sepp Straka |
| Collin Morikawa (7.1) | Collin Morikawa (9.5) | Collin Morikawa |
"The Players Championship is absolutely our busiest tournament outside of the majors and it's no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is the clear favourite this week as he goes for his third consecutive win in this tournament. Ludvig Aberg and Sepp Straka currently sit as our worst results as the public continues to bet these two Europeans.
Additionally, we’re excited to showcase the infamous 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass with markets on closest to the pin, a player to hit one in the water, and more for every group this weekend." – Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
🏆 Players Championship tournament info
- When: Thursday, March 13 - Sunday, March 16
- Where: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
- Purse: $25 million
- FedEx Cup points: 750
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+500 via BetRivers)
- Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
⛳ TPC Sawgrass course info
- Par: 72
- Length: 7,275 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
- Architect: Pete Dye
💰 Players Championship betting history
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | +550 | -20 | +550 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | +1000 | -17 | +1000 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | +3000 | -13 | +3000 |
| 2021 | Justin Thomas | +1800 | -14 | +1800 |
| 2020 | Canceled (COVID-19) | |||
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | +1200 | -16 | +1200 |
| 2018 | Webb Simpson | +6000 | -18 | +6000 |
| 2017 | Si Woo Kim | Field (+700) | -10 | Field (+700) |
| 2016 | Jason Day | +1000 | -15 | +1000 |
| 2015 | Rickie Fowler | +5000 | -12 | +5000 |
| 2014 | Martin Kaymer | +6000 | -13 | +6000 |
Historical betting odds via GolfOdds.com.
How to bet on golf
Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.
Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.
❓The Players Championship FAQs
Who is the Players Championship favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is the 2025 Players Championship favorite with odds of +500 via BetRivers, representing an implied win probability of 16.67%.
What does the winner of The Players Championship receive?
The winner of the 2025 Players Championship will earn $4.5 million.
How big is The Players Championship field?
The 2025 Players Championship field consists of 144 golfers.
When is The Players Championship?
The 2025 Players Championship will be played from Thursday, March 13 through Sunday, March 16.
Where is The Players Championship?
The Players Championship is held annually at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Who won The Players Championship last year?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2024 Players Championship by one stroke over Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark at 20-under par.
📖 Golf betting odds pages
⛳ Here are our best golf betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
