Players Championship First-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Best 18-Hole Leader Bets
The 2025 Players Championship tees off at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., Thursday morning. We have you covered all tournament with our best picks to win, but our Players Championship first-round leader prediction hopes to cash-in on some early profits.
Two-time defending tournament champion Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite to win The Players Championship and to lead after 18 holes. His first-round leader odds of +1600 would return a $160 profit on a winning $10 bet.
I'm looking slightly further down the board with my best 18-hole leader prediction for Thursday as we try to get the best of the weather in Ponte Vedra Beach on what's expected to be a windy day.
📊 Players Championship first-round leader odds
The Players Championship first-round leader odds are from our best golf betting sites and update in real time. Scheffler is the favorite in this market with +1600 odds representing an implied win probability of 5.88%.
Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.
💭 What to consider when betting on the first-round leader
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performances entering Thursday's first round.
🌬️ Thursday's weather at TPC Sawgrass
Thursday's weather at TPC Sawgrass calls for more favorable conditions during the morning. The morning temperature is supposed to be around 68 degrees with winds of 8 mph and gusts up to 11 mph.
The afternoon in Ponte Vedra Beach will warm up to 72 degrees with winds picking up to 9 mph and gusts up to 15 mph.
Those afternoon conditions will likely lead to more variable scores, especially considering all of the water in play.
💰 Players Championship 18-hole prediction
🇺🇸 Justin Thomas
👉 Best odds: +3500 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 2.78%
Terms and conditions apply.
Thomas, the 2021 Players champion, is in one of two star-studded featured groups for Thursday and Friday. He'll play his first two rounds with Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama, and they'll tee off Thursday morning at 8:24 a.m. ET from the 10th tee.
This puts Thomas in the better - and less windy - weather on Thursday. The ninth-ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) is coming off a T-36 finish at Bay Hill last week. He previously tied for ninth in The Genesis, sixth in the Phoenix Open, and was the runner-up in The American Express earlier this year.
Thomas missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass last year, but he's averaged 1.76 true strokes gained per round across 34 career rounds in The Players.
🔮 Players Championship expert picks
Here are my top Players Championship picks and odds breakdowns:
- Players Championship AI picks and predictions
- Players Championship first-round leader prediction
- Players Championship sleepers and long shots
- Players Championship picks to win
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The Players Championship?
- Players Championship odds to win
Players Championship betting insights
Here's a breakdown of the betting action on The Players Championship at BetMGM as of Wednesday:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg (8.9) | Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Ludvig Aberg |
| Scottie Scheffler (8.6) | Ludvig Aberg (15.9) | Sepp Straka |
| Collin Morikawa (7.1) | Collin Morikawa (9.5) | Collin Morikawa |
"The Players Championship is absolutely our busiest tournament outside of the majors and it's no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is the clear favourite this week as he goes for his third consecutive win in this tournament. Ludvig Aberg and Sepp Straka currently sit as our worst results as the public continues to bet these two Europeans.
Additionally, we’re excited to showcase the infamous 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass with markets on closest to the pin, a player to hit one in the water, and more for every group this weekend." – Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
First-round leader betting action
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Taylor (6.5) | Nick Taylor (11.2) | Nick Taylor |
| Ludvig Aberg (5.3) | Scottie Scheffler (7.7) | Tom Hoge |
| Tom Hoge (4.8) | Rory McIlroy (6.5) | Hideki Matsuyama |
🏆 Players Championship tournament info
- When: Thursday, March 13 - Sunday, March 16
- Where: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
- Purse: $25 million
- FedEx Cup points: 750
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+500 via BetRivers)
- Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
📖 Golf betting odds pages
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