PLAYERS Championship Picks to Win: Outright Golf Bets for TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa found himself outside of the winner's circle in yet another close call on Sunday, but I expect that motivation to fuel him at TPC Sawgrass as one of my best PLAYERS Championship picks to win.
Morikawa moved from fifth to fourth in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with his runner-up finish in last week's Signature Event at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. The 54-hole leader lost by one stroke to Russell Henley. That was his second runner-up finish of 2025 and his ninth top-10 result since his last PGA Tour victory in 2023.
That's not stopping me from backing Morikawa at +1600 Players Championship odds in the outright betting market, as I make my Players Championship picks to win ahead of tomorrow's first round.
🏆 Players Championship picks to win
See all of our golf picks for The Players Championship and upcoming events.
- 🎯 Collin Morikawa to win The Players Championship (+1600 via DraftKings)
- 🎯 Xander Schauffele to win The Players Championship (+2200 via BetMGM)
- 🎯 Shane Lowry to win The Players Championship (+4000 via Caesars)
- 🎯 Keegan Bradley to win The Players Championship (+5500 via FanDuel)
You can find the best and latest odds for all of your Players Championship picks via our player prop odds tool.
💰 Players Championship outright picks
Here are my best outright picks to win this week's Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
🇺🇸 Collin Morikawa
👉 Best odds: +1600 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $160 profit) | Implied win probability: 5.88%
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Morikawa led the Arnold Palmer Invitational field - many of which are playing this week at TPC Sawgrass - with 3.06 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round. He also gained more than a stroke per round on approach and around the green, and it was his putter that held him back in Sunday's second-place finish.
While TPC Sawgrass hasn't been particularly friendly to the two-time major winner, I'm jumping on these lingering +1600 odds from DraftKings with Caesars offering odds of just +1200. That's a difference of $40 in profit on a winning $10 bet. Our DraftKings promo code gets new users $150 in bonus bets when signing up today.
Morikawa's best result at TPC Sawgrass was a T-13 through four career appearances in the event. He tied for 45th last year.
🇺🇸 Xander Schauffele
👉 Best odds: +2200 via BetMGM ($10 bet pays $220 profit) | Implied win probability: 4.35%
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Schauffele played in just his second tournament of 2025 last week after winning two majors last year. He tied for 30th in the season-opening Sentry and for 40th in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational in his return from injury.
Rounds 1 and 3 held Schauffele back last week. He went 3-under on Sunday and still gained strokes off the tee and on approach over 72 holes. We're getting inflated odds for him to win this week after he shook off some rust at Bay Hill. Schauffele was a co-runner-up at TPC Sawgrass last year.
A winning $10 bet at +2200 odds would return a profit of $220. BetMGM bonus code "SBRBONUS" gets new users up to a $1,500 first bet.
🇮🇪 Shane Lowry
👉 Best odds: +4000 via Caesars ($10 bet pays $400 profit) | Implied win probability: 2.44%
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Lowry made the cut in each of his last four trips to TPC Sawgrass with a best result of eighth in 2021. He finished seventh in last week's Signature Event despite losing strokes off the tee. His 0.97 SG: putting inspire hope for the difficult greens in play this week.
Caesars promo code "SBRBONUSDYW" presents value with a winning $10 bet fetching a profit of $400 on Sunday. BetMGM has the market-low odds of +3300 for $70 less in profit on the same $10 bet.
🇺🇸 Keegan Bradley
👉 Best odds: +5500 via FanDuel ($10 bet pays $550 profit) | Implied win probability: 1.79%
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I'm sticking with the theme above and riding the hottest hand of all coming out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bradley, the U.S. Ryder Cup captain, matched the round of the week at Bay Hill with a Sunday round of 8-under par 64 to snag a T-5 finish.
His best finish to date in 2025 moved him to No. 11 in the OWGR. He led all competitors for the week in SG: approach (1.54) and was seventh with 1.87 SG: tee-to-green. His best career finish at TPC Sawgrass was a fifth-place showing in 2022.
Despite all that, these odds would return a profit of $550 on a winning $10 bet.
🔮 Players Championship expert picks
Here are my top Players Championship picks and odds breakdowns:
- Players Championship AI picks and predictions
- Players Championship first-round leader prediction
- Players Championship sleepers and long shots
- Players Championship picks to win
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The Players Championship?
- Players Championship odds to win
Players Championship betting insights
Here's a breakdown of the betting action on The Players Championship at BetMGM as of Wednesday:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg (8.9) | Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Ludvig Aberg |
| Scottie Scheffler (8.6) | Ludvig Aberg (15.9) | Sepp Straka |
| Collin Morikawa (7.1) | Collin Morikawa (9.5) | Collin Morikawa |
"The Players Championship is absolutely our busiest tournament outside of the majors and it's no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is the clear favourite this week as he goes for his third consecutive win in this tournament. Ludvig Aberg and Sepp Straka currently sit as our worst results as the public continues to bet these two Europeans.
Additionally, we’re excited to showcase the infamous 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass with markets on closest to the pin, a player to hit one in the water, and more for every group this weekend." – Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
First-round leader betting action
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Taylor (6.5) | Nick Taylor (11.2) | Nick Taylor |
| Ludvig Aberg (5.3) | Scottie Scheffler (7.7) | Tom Hoge |
| Tom Hoge (4.8) | Rory McIlroy (6.5) | Hideki Matsuyama |
📊 Players Championship odds 2025
Our live Players Championship odds update in real time based on the odds at our best golf betting sites.
🏆 Players Championship tournament info
- When: Thursday, March 13 - Sunday, March 16
- Where: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
- Purse: $25 million
- FedEx Cup points: 750
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+500 via BetRivers)
- Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
⛳ TPC Sawgrass course info
- Par: 72
- Length: 7,275 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
- Architect: Pete Dye
💰 Players Championship betting history
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | +550 | -20 | +550 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | +1000 | -17 | +1000 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | +3000 | -13 | +3000 |
| 2021 | Justin Thomas | +1800 | -14 | +1800 |
| 2020 | Canceled (COVID-19) | |||
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | +1200 | -16 | +1200 |
| 2018 | Webb Simpson | +6000 | -18 | +6000 |
| 2017 | Si Woo Kim | Field (+700) | -10 | Field (+700) |
| 2016 | Jason Day | +1000 | -15 | +1000 |
| 2015 | Rickie Fowler | +5000 | -12 | +5000 |
| 2014 | Martin Kaymer | +6000 | -13 | +6000 |
Historical betting odds via GolfOdds.com.
How to bet on golf
Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.
Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.
❓The Players Championship FAQs
Who is the Players Championship favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is the 2025 Players Championship favorite with odds of +500 via BetRivers, representing an implied win probability of 16.67%.
What does the winner of The Players Championship receive?
The winner of the 2025 Players Championship will earn $4.5 million.
How big is The Players Championship field?
The 2025 Players Championship field consists of 144 golfers.
When is The Players Championship?
The 2025 Players Championship will be played from Thursday, March 13 through Sunday, March 16.
Where is The Players Championship?
The Players Championship is held annually at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Who won The Players Championship last year?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2024 Players Championship by one stroke over Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark at 20-under par.
📖 Golf betting odds pages
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