Players Championship Sleepers & Long-Shot Predictions: Dark-Horse Picks to Win
While the strongest field in golf is at TPC Sawgrass this week, PLAYERS Championship sleepers and long-shot predictions have still managed to generate big pay days for bettors in recent years. We're searching for this year's dark-horse contenders.
The Players Championship odds list Scottie Scheffler as a +500 betting favorite as he seeks his third straight win at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. I don't mind those odds on the No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), but a winning $10 bet returns a profit of just $50.
I'm more interested in one of the contenders with odds of at least +5000, as we've seen three The Players Championship winners in the last 10 years carry odds that long or higher. The tournament begins tomorrow at 7:40 a.m. ET.
💤 Players Championship sleeper picks
My long-shot golf picks are based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
- Corey Conners to win (+6000 via FanDuel)
- Wyndham Clark to win (+6600 via bet365)
- Justin Rose to win (+12500 via Caesars)
🎯 Players Championship long shots
Here are my best Players Championship long-shot predictions, and why I think they'll win this week at TPC Sawgrass.
💰 Corey Conners
Best odds: +6000 via FanDuel | $10 bet pays a $600 profit
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I almost included Conners in my main Players Championship outright picks article, but I couldn't get to the required confidence level. The Canadian used a third-place finish in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational to move up to No. 30 in the OWGR and qualify for the British Open later this summer.
Conners played in this event each of the past five (full) runnings of the tournament. He tied for 13th last year and had his best finish of seventh in 2021. His putter and short game have typically held him back from better finishes at TPC Sawgrass.
Neither of those were issues for Conners last week. He averaged 0.88 strokes gained: around-the-green and 0.71 SG: putting per round at Bay Hill. Maintaining that same form and continuing his expert iron play will have him in contention into the weekend.
💰 Wyndham Clark
Best odds: +6600 via bet365 | $10 bet pays a $660 profit
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I was on Clark to win last week in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and that was looking good as he surged to the first-round lead. However, he struggled over the weekend and finished T-22.
But is that enough to justify the +6600 long-shot odds for the No. 8 player in the OWGR? Clark was a co-runner-up to Scheffler a year ago and tied for 27th in 2023.
We're getting outlier odds from bet365. Caesars has +5000 odds for Clark to win The Players Championship.
💰 Justin Rose
Best odds: +12500 via Caesars | $10 bet pays a $1,250 profit
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Rose has played more competitive rounds (57) at TPC Sawgrass than anyone in the field other than Adam Scott (75). Though he missed the cut last year, Rose's T-6 finish the year prior was his third top-10 finish in The Players.
The Englishman tied for eighth last week, thanks to 1.05 SG: approach and 1.28 SG: putting per round. That moved him back to No. 34 in the OWGR, yet he shares these +12500 odds to win with Doug Ghim and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
A winning $10 bet on Rose to claim his first victory since 2023 would return a profit of $1,250 at Caesars.
🔮 Players Championship expert picks
Here are my top Players Championship picks and odds breakdowns:
- Players Championship AI picks and predictions
- Players Championship first-round leader prediction
- Players Championship sleepers and long shots
- Players Championship picks to win
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The Players Championship?
- Players Championship odds to win
Players Championship betting insights
Here's a breakdown of the betting action on The Players Championship at BetMGM as of Wednesday:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg (8.9) | Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Ludvig Aberg |
| Scottie Scheffler (8.6) | Ludvig Aberg (15.9) | Sepp Straka |
| Collin Morikawa (7.1) | Collin Morikawa (9.5) | Collin Morikawa |
"The Players Championship is absolutely our busiest tournament outside of the majors and it's no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is the clear favourite this week as he goes for his third consecutive win in this tournament. Ludvig Aberg and Sepp Straka currently sit as our worst results as the public continues to bet these two Europeans.
Additionally, we’re excited to showcase the infamous 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass with markets on closest to the pin, a player to hit one in the water, and more for every group this weekend." – Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
First-round leader betting action
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Taylor (6.5) | Nick Taylor (11.2) | Nick Taylor |
| Ludvig Aberg (5.3) | Scottie Scheffler (7.7) | Tom Hoge |
| Tom Hoge (4.8) | Rory McIlroy (6.5) | Hideki Matsuyama |
📊 Players Championship odds 2025
Our live Players Championship odds update in real time based on the odds at our best golf betting sites.
🏆 Players Championship tournament info
- When: Thursday, March 13 - Sunday, March 16
- Where: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
- Purse: $25 million
- FedEx Cup points: 750
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+500 via BetRivers)
- Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
⛳ TPC Sawgrass course info
- Par: 72
- Length: 7,275 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
- Architect: Pete Dye
💰 Players Championship betting history
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | +550 | -20 | +550 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | +1000 | -17 | +1000 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | +3000 | -13 | +3000 |
| 2021 | Justin Thomas | +1800 | -14 | +1800 |
| 2020 | Canceled (COVID-19) | |||
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | +1200 | -16 | +1200 |
| 2018 | Webb Simpson | +6000 | -18 | +6000 |
| 2017 | Si Woo Kim | Field (+700) | -10 | Field (+700) |
| 2016 | Jason Day | +1000 | -15 | +1000 |
| 2015 | Rickie Fowler | +5000 | -12 | +5000 |
| 2014 | Martin Kaymer | +6000 | -13 | +6000 |
Historical betting odds via GolfOdds.com.
💡 How to bet on golf
Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.
Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.
❓The Players Championship FAQs
Who is the Players Championship favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is the 2025 Players Championship favorite with odds of +500 via BetRivers, representing an implied win probability of 16.67%.
What does the winner of The Players Championship receive?
The winner of the 2025 Players Championship will earn $4.5 million.
How big is The Players Championship field?
The 2025 Players Championship field consists of 144 golfers.
When is The Players Championship?
The 2025 Players Championship will be played from Thursday, March 13 through Sunday, March 16.
Where is The Players Championship?
The Players Championship is held annually at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Who won The Players Championship last year?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2024 Players Championship by one stroke over Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark at 20-under par.
📖 Golf betting odds pages
⛳ Here are our best golf betting sites
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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